Saturday November 23

Final Day of Fall Season

With the opening of the 2013-14 Gulfstream Championship Season next Saturday, today marked the end of the Fall Championship Racing Season.  I debated about going to the races, and if I went which track to go to.  There was not a lot of top racing today, and the weather locally promised to take all the turf races off the inner course.  In the end I had twenty-plus selections and while not a "typical" racing selection sheet with races going off every few minutes, I did have a play every fifteen to twenty minutes.....so I decided to head out.  It wasn't until mid-morning that I finally determined to go to Calder, on the premise that beginning next weekend I'd clearly be at Gulfsteam a lot.  I missed on my first two selections, at fair prices, and then scored with my first of three "best" selections. 

The racing card at Aqueduct featured a series of New York-bred stakes races, and the second was what I thought the best betting selection of them all.  It was the Great White Way Stakes going six furlongs for two-year-old colts.  My top selection was Empire Dreams who had last finished a best-of-the-rest second behind graded stakes winner Wired Bryan in the Bongard Stakes on Empire Showcase Day.  My only concern was that he'd drawn the rail post.  I could forsee him being trapped on the rail as they turned for home, and oh how prophetic my concerns were!  As they spun out of the turn there he was, trapped on the rail, looking to shoot through a narrow gap which quickly closed.  The rider waited for a seam to open between horses, but none did and finally at the furlong marker he pulled back off the leaders heels, made a hard right to get open four wide and asked for a big kick with a 16th of a mile to go.  At first it appeared he'd waited too long, but with a hundred yards to go he accelerated and drew clear late!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  When one of the contenders scratched I had upped the bet from a triple investment to a full-fledged "Prime-Time" bet.  The more than fair $3.70 payoff resulted in a return of nearly $40 for me, and I'm in the black! 

Back-to-back disappointments at double investments brought me quickly back to reality as a Todd Pletcher lightly raced colt off a layoff failed to produce at Gulfstream at 3/5 (6th!) and then another Pletcher runner, a two-year-old MSW debut colt was third at 2/1 at Aqueduct.  I missed with my first bet of the year at the Fair Grounds when Haunted Heroine was third as the even money choice.  Then it was time for the Fifth Avenue Stakes at Aqueduct, and I liked Miss Narcissist to beat her fellow juvenile fillies and produce her third win of the year.  I didn't have the same confidence in her chances as Empire Dreams as she was a front runner and there appeared to be at least a couple others that would challenge her today.  But on paper she was clearly the most talented.  She broke ahead of the field and through the first quarter mile I thought I was long gone.  But as the field moved up the backstretch a longshot on the rail decided to take advantage of the opening along the rail and moved through to poke her head in front.  Smartly, my rider didn't duel with her and let that one take them into the lane.  Miss Narcissist appeared to have plenty left to collar and run by the leader, but as they turned for home it was a dog fight of a stretch duel!  It wasn't until the final fifty yards that she had her.  And while it was a photo, I was certain that I had a nose in front on the wire. 

After watching the slow-motion replay to be certain I'd won I hustled out to the rail to watch the fifth at Calder.  My original selection was Razzle Dazzle Man for the turf.  He had finished with interest in his first turf try last out and appeared to be the one runner able to run through the lane.  I wasn't surprised that the race came off the turf as it had rained a lot on Friday and already we'd had a shower on track today.  He was being well bet and when I looked at his first three career races, sprinting on the dirt, I felt he still had a legitimate chance to score here by coming off the pace.  But as they broke out of the gate he went right to the lead!  It was a speed duel all the way to the far turn when he slipped back into second, but inside the final furlong he surged again and as they passed me standing there on the rail he too was up in time!  I cashed the two tickets for over $35 dollars and was again back in the black! 

But like the last sequence following a win I lost back-to-back double investments.  Lady Mickelson was third at a generous 3/1 at Churchill and then another Pletcher runner disappointed at odds-on at Gulfstream......Medocino Joe was 10th and last at 4/5!  My next win came in the sixth at Churchill which was slated for nine furlongs on the turf, but was moved to the main track.  My turf pick was a minimum bet, but on the main track I'd planned to double the bet on "Main Track Only" entrant Pick of the Litter.  He stalked the pace to the far turn and then swept by horses to reach the leaders spinning out of the turn.  But he seemed to stall and toss his head around before top rider Corey Lanerie got him straightened out and back in gear.  Inside the final sixteenth he accelerated away to win handily.  Nearly $20 on my fourth winner of the day.  Three straight misses set me up for the race that would go a long way towards determining my financial fate for the day. 

My "BET of the Day" was the featured Mr. Sulu Stakes at the Fair Grounds.  Like most tracks today they were off the turf, but like Churchill Downs (and UNLIKE CALDER) they were leaving their feature ON the turf.  I double-checked and String King, who was CLEARLY the best horse in the field had won, here, on yielding ground.  I looked up at the board as I walked to the window with my $30 investment money and noted he was a miserly 1-9.  But as post time drew near he floated to a fair 1/5 price; then I couldn't believe he continued to drift up to first 2/5 and then 1/2 on the board.  THAT was stealing!  But as they left the gate the late money knocked him back to 1/5.  I was OK with that.  He settled in fourth, which was the right spot, but the front runner had set tepid fractions of :25 and change through the first quarter and then a very pedestrian :50 and change for a half mile as they hit the far turn.  Still String King glided up effortlessly to reach the front runner as heads straightened for home.  But instead of drawing away through the stretch it turned into a stirring stretch duel.  I was encouraged in spite of the lack of separation between the two because the front runner's jockey was all over him and my rider seemed to have String King in hand.  He had to ask for more run that he probably wanted to, but in the end he edged clear!  My second "BEST" of the day (of three I'd posted on Facebook) was a WINNER! 

And like my last stakes win earlier in the Fifth Avenue, I hustled out to the rail to watch a Calder off-the-turf event.  In this spot I'd liked Majestic Express on the grass, but was hoping it DID come off the grass because he appeared a very solid pick on the main track.  He was the 3/5 favorite, and like Razzle Dazzle Man he was dueling on the front end.  It was a very tight finish and unfortunately my Flipcam video camera turned itself off.....sigh.....but on the wire I was in front, again!  I had now won six of seventeen for the day and was in the black as I made my final five bets and headed for home.  The first of the five saw my pick in a three-way-photo, third.  The next two resulted in a 45-1 upset winner, and the next (my third "best" of the day) was won by a 67-1 longshot!  Wow.  At the Fair Grounds my last two races were lost in the opening quarter.......front runners nearly NEVER win unless they are CLEARLY the superior horse.  So when Mister Bernstein took the lead at 7/5 in the ninth and then Grand Transport took the lead at 2/1 in the tenth I was concerned.  And rightfully so it turned out.....fading finishes to 6th and 2nd ended the day. 

But in spite of the 27% winners for the day, my fall numbers were excellent.  For the three months of the championship season I'd scored at a nearly 40% win rate: 

And the total numbers for the Fall Season marked the first time I'd cleared the magical $2.00 ROI mark since 2010!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!  On to Gulfstream!

Saturday November 16

The Enchanted Shower

Today was Brad & Lauren's big shower, themed to Snow White.  We had about 25 people here and it all turned out great.....big-time props to my wife Kim for all her hard work to create the event; and to her sisters in particular who helped set it all up.  Click here to see web site I posted with the photos......watch Kim's toast - very special.

Early in the day I checked out the online handicapping videos and entries and found four races that I liked enough to invest in.  The first two were stakes races at Aqueduct on the turf.  Dave Liftin's "Best" was in the 5th, but May Shares was a non-threatening 4th as the 9/5 favorite.  In the Grade 3 Red Smith I went with one of my favorite runners, Hyper.  But he was too far back I thought and finished a poor 8th as the 3/2 favorite.  My last two selections were both at Hollywood Park.  The first was in the 6th, a first-time starter for Bob Baffert, but he scratched.  The final selection of the day was with Golden Production in the 8th race.  It was a six furlong turf sprint and he left the gate as the even-money favorite.  He stalked the pace to the turn, cruised to the lead and drew off as you please.  Much the best.  The double investment got back most of my money on the day and netted me a 33% win average for the day.  All things considered I'll take it. 

One last weekend to the fall meeting before the Gulfstream winter season begins.  I got my "Gulfstream Handicapper" in the mail on Friday and have started to prepare for the busy winter season!

Friday November 15

A BIG Finish For Jason And I!

We'd just returned from our Caribbean Cruise Thursday, and with the bridal shower on Saturday, I knew my best chance for a "racing day" would be today while we were preparing for that big event.  I had bought the Daily Racing Form yesterday thinking that at best Jason and I could escape the frenzy of preparations, but knowing that we'd probably be able to help if we stayed home - but I could play the races online.  That's the beauty of twinspires.com in that it allows me to have very flexible "real life" experiences while enabling me to bet and watch the races at my leisure. I knew that even if we couldn't watch the races live, we'd be able to watch the replays at some point.  And just as I'd thought, we were asked to take care of several shower preparation tasks, but we were also able to watch all but one of the races live! 

The day did not start out with a lot of promise as in the first race on my sheet, Liesel was bet down from 6/1 to 2/1 and led to deep stretch, only to be caught in the final 100 yards, second.  At Churchill I had the 1/5 favorite in On the Same Page - and he was part of an entry with 1a-Gibes, but I did not like that one - in fact I wrote that if 'Page scratched I would pass the race.  Ironically though it was Gibes who battled to the wire while 'Page was a flat fifth.  But the entry went down to defeat when Gibes could not hold on and was second.  I was playing online on my computer at my desk, and Jason was watching.  After the this race I asked him if he had an online account.....I had assumed he was checking email and/or Facebook while we watched the races, but he told me he DID have an account and was playing with me......ahhhhh, the wonder of technology!  At Calder Giant Valley was the DRF Mike Welsch's "Best" of the day, and while that usually makes me leery, I agreed today.  Giant Valley was trained by Kirk Ziadie for Team Calabrese, and they are winning at a HUGE 54%; and with top rider Edgar Zayas on board they are winning at a nearly identical 53% rate.  No surprise 'Valley was the 1/5 favorite.  BIG SURPRISE that he didn't even hit the board - he looked uncomfortable from the moment he left the gate, fifth.  And he losing continued when Insolvent was a close second a miserly odds of 3/5 at Aqueduct.  Three out of four had been right there on the wire, so the handicapping was solid, just no results to support the selections!  Things began to turn around after the slow start.......

It was the third at Calder and I was on another Team Calabrese / Ziadie / Zayas runner.  This time it was first-time starting two-year-old Dreaminofauntdiane.  The barn was winning 45% with debut runners at a too big to believe $3.51 ROI.  Who DOESN'T get the memo on the Ziadie/Calabrese runners?  Somehow 'diane went off at an inflated 2/1 and scored!  The return of $6.00 added a nice $15 return and I was "back in the game!" 

Right back in less than a half hour, and again at Calder!  I had mixed feelings about Sharpova Slams.  On the upside there were two things that drew me to her......first, nothing about racing, but I've always noted her entry in a race because of tennis star/model hottie Maria Sharapova for whom she is named; but more importantly for today Shapova Slams had earned back-to-back 80 Beyers which were BOTH better than any lifetime figure of anyone else in the field.  On the negative side, both of these most recent numbers were big time aberrations from her consistent mid-60s numbers.  Still, I always say, you are either a believer in the Beyers or you are not...and I am.  One final hesitation and note I made on my sheet had to do with "Also Eligible" #10 Dream With Us.  She was coming off the shelf for Peter Walder, a 30% win angle and loved the Calder turf course (12/4-3-0).  She'd also earned an 80 on the turf, making her the only one who, by the numbers, could take down the favorite, AND jockey Edgar Zayas was slated to ride, a 41% jockey-trainer combo.  When Jason and I looked at the early odds I noted that Dream With Us was scratched.  So, I told him that I was making the "power decision" to double the investment since her numbers were now clearly superior.  Sharapova sat off the pace, but as heads turned for home she lengthened her stride and drew off late!  WHOOO HOOOO!  She paid a nice $4.20 and I cashed for over $20 and was now nearly back to even - here we go! 

The next two races saw my selections fail to run to expectations.  Easy Chair was a price play at 7/1 at Churchill, but was a distant 10th.....ouch.  Then Zhivago was allowed to go off at 5/1 over the Aqueduct turf.  I commented to Jason as they got into the gate how odd I thought this was since she had won two in a row, both off a layoff like today, AND she was the cover story (with big color photo) in the Form today.  The crowd knew best however as she made a bid on the turn, then could not sustain it......fifth.  It was now three pm and we'd only won two of eight on the day.  I looked at the remaining seven races and thought that I "should" win three more to get to my typical 30% win average, and I told Jason that we were truly due!  Delivery came in the next pick on the sheet.  As Jason gazed down at my selection I told him that Capital Goods had not inspired me all that much when I looked at the past performances, but then I noted that EVERY Churchill DRF analyst had him as their "BEST" of the day.  The pick was cinched when both track announcer Mark Johnson and the best online handicapper I know, Jill Byrne put him on top.  I had planned to double the bet in support of the DRF picks, but felt more confident now with Jill on board.  Despite all the confidence of the "experts" he still went off at 7/5 - and he romped as E-A-S-I-L-Y the best!  The payoff added nearly $25 to the account and again I was nearly back to even. 

The final play locally saw Manzutti unable to close the deal, 3rd at 6/5 over the Calder turf.  But then the "Run of the Day" started......in the opener at Hollywood Park San Onofre looked to be the speed of the race with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith up.....easily wire to wire at odds on.  Next up it was the finale at Aqueduct.  Viva Allegiance was very similar to me in handicapping as Sharapova Slams.  He looked best of the main body, and had the solid angle of first-off-the-claim for David Jacobson (27% - $2.01 ROI).  But there was a horse on the AE list that worried me.  When he didn't draw in and the closest rival on paper was carrying NINE more pounds than 'Viva, I made another power move and upped the bet.  He split horse at the furlong marker and scored!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Nearly $6 on the payoff because of the NYRA breakage rule of breaking payoffs on the nickel rather than the dime (paid $5.90) and I moved into the black today by collecting almost $30!  Two in a row!  The final three bets were all at Hollywood.  In the fourth I liked Infosec.......for two reasons:  First he had finished third in his debut despite breaking behind the field and secondly because he was Brad Free's "Best" of the day.  The one thing I did not like so much was that Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was dropping this juvenile out of maiden special company to maiden claimers.  Still, I doubled the wager.  He was pressing the pace down the backstretch in fourth, but as they moved into the turn he lost ground.....not good.  But once they were straightened away for the stretch run he seemed to switch gears and wore down the leaders, I thought on talent alone.  He's not a good horse, but he was best of these claimers.  The payoff earned me over $15. 

Jason and I watched one more race live before being called to duty for the shower and then to eat dinner with everyone (home-made pizza, yummy!).  The sixth at Hollywood was another juvenile maiden race.  But this time it was a maiden special.  Jason asked which of the two last picks did I have the most confidence in.  I told him that I liked Streaming in this race best because unlike Infosec who'd run for a tag, Streaming was a maiden special for Baffert.  And even better, I explained, when Martin Garcia rides a first-time-starter who's firing bullet works in the morning for Baffert it's a deadly combination.  I proved most correct in my analysis as he scored decisively......fourth in a row!

After dinner we headed out to the computer to watch the replay of the last bet of the day.  It was a turf sprint and I didn't have a lot of confidence in Et Tu Walker, but what I did like was that he'd always run well over this course (6/3-1-0).  As I opened Twin Spires Jason said, "I know who won, do you want to know before we watch?"  I couldn't tell if he was pleased or not, so I said no.  Et Tu Walker won with ease! OUR FIFTH WIN IN A ROW!  So for the day we finished a super 8-for-15, and with a clear profit!  I thought it was very interesting, and told Jason that the way the day had turned out was very similar to many days that I was at the races with my buddy Keith.  Jason had been making $20 bets (or more) and betting some exactas.  I had wagered all $5 and $10 bets with one exception, and all straight "WIN" bets, as is usual for me.  For the day he'd bet over $400 and collected $404.  I on the other hand had bet $111 and cashed for $127.25!  So the guy with the smaller investments had tripled the guy with the big investments :)  Go me!
 

Thursday November 7

Opening Day At Hollywood Park

 

Today was opening day at Hollywood Park, and while I typically enjoy opening days simply because they are opening days, today was a special day.....and a very sad day for thoroughbred racing in North America.  After 75 years of historic racing, Hollywood Park management had decided last spring to give in and sell the property which sits on prime industrial land.  So in a year or so warehouses and factories will be sitting on what has been one of the finest racing facilities in America since before the second World War.  I was fortunate to have visited Hollywood Park when I visited Jeff and Anoinette back in November of 2011.  On the Friday night of that weekend Jeff and I had gone to watch the races under the lights; and then on Sunday we had seats in the Turf Club to watch all the racing action and bet on simulcast action.  It was a good day for me as I cashed on eleven winners and collected over $40 in profits.  I still wear my Hollywood polo shirt I bought that Friday evening and that is pictured in this photo of me at our box seats. 

As for today's racing action, I had handicapped only Churchill Downs and Hollywood.  In my first selection under the Twin Spires, the second race, my top selection, Debit Card was on the lead at 7/2 as they turned for home, but faded to fifth through the final furlong.  My next pick was in the 4th, a non-winners of three other-than optional allowance spot.  My choice was Poetic Kid who was on a roll with three straight wins over the turf, including two at this mile distance and the latest was over the Churchill course.  In addition he was a 4x turf winner.  I wasn't surprised he was being bet as the favorite as I watched the racing action on HRTV, but then the analysts remarked that they didn't know what to make of betting Poetic Kid as the favorite considering the race was OFF THE TURF!  What the!!!?????  I felt better that (a) he was still being well played and that Jeff Siegel (remember he's one of the two hosts from "The Player") that I met on Breeders' Cup Friday, had made him his top choice and was sticking with it.  He remarked that often turf and synthetic horses run well over the fast dirt at Churchill - and I've seen this many times....so everyone just take a deep breath!  He was near the back, but it was only three off the leaders as the field was bunched together hitting the far turn.  The rider asked and he was LONG GONE!  Impressive win.  I was happy to get $5.80, and with my double investment I cashed for nearly $30.  I ran second in back-to-back picks when Thundergram led all the way to the final jump at Churchill and then in my first bet at Hollywood Park, Hear the Ghost ran second.  In the end, that race cost me the black line of profit......he had not been out since scoring in the Grade 2 San Felipe (as my top pick at nearly 6/1!), but he was facing allowance runners.  And today he was sprinting, but.....his debut here, had been in a sprint and he blew their doors off.  I thought even if he wasn't cranked fully, which I was sure he wouldn't be, he had enough talent to win on class alone.   I think he would have, but the rider really never tried to encourage him to work in my eyes.  He simply sat on him like it was a public workout until they were inside the 16th pole.  Would have been nice to know that they were simply working him out ahead of time.  I lost a third in a row when Bradester was a disappointing 4th at 3/5 at Churchill.  I had my reservations about him, and was glad I didn't do anything other than the minimum.

But I closed the day out with two wins from my last three bets.  In the 10th and finale at Churchill Downs, we were going a one-turn mile in non-winners of three lifetime company.  My pick was the morning line choice, Don't Slip.  I was a bit skeptical in betting him because of the connections surprisingly.  Owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey have set track records for wins as owners at Keeneland, Churchill, and Saratoga this year; and their primary trainer is Michael Maker.  This three-some began connecting on a high percentage going back to Gulfstream after the first of the year.  Since Churchill has opened this fall however, Maker has posted  1-for-26 mark!  YIKES!  And then in MOST uncharacteristic fashion, the Ramseys were completely shut out at the Breeders' Cup in spite of having about ten runners, who were nearly all considered viable win candidates.  Well, Don't Slip was a Maker-Ramsey runner and for that I was skeptical - in fact I'd passed on a couple of others from these connection.  But what made me go with Don't Slip was the fact that he was claimed two back for $10K.....then moved up to $20K where he didn't fare well.  Today they double-dropped him to $7.5K.  My thinking is that these guys are ALL about winning, and they needed a kick-start.  If they won this race they'd cash in for about $7K for the purse, and if he got claimed, they would get another $7.5K - and it's a profit.  It's a win-win.  He went straight to the front, fended off the challengers on the turn and opened up to draw off handily!  I doubled the bet and cashed for over $20! 

In the fifth at Hollywood I liked Woodslandway at 5/1.  She'd improved in every start since coming to America and today was her first start for a claiming tag.  HRTV analyst Kurt Hoover told everyone he REALLY liked this filly; on the class drop he didn't see it as a negative, but merely putting her where she belonged.  He did say if she didn't have any stretch kick today, she'd never find a softer group.  She got the perfect trip, at a juicy 3/1 price, and turning for home was a length off the leaders with clear run on the outside.  The jockey asked and ........ nothing.  After the race Hoover remarked, "....well, at least one good thing - I won't be wasting any of my money on Woodslandway anymore!"  My final selection on this Thursday was in the 7th at Hollywood, a one mile turf allowance.  The pick was Miss Well Molded who had been claimed out of a mid-priced claiming event where she'd drawn off with authority.  Typically the move to allowance company, even off a big win like that is NOT a good investment proposition.  But Miss Well Molded was claimed by Doug O'Neill and he was putting top rider Rafael Bejarano on board.....both positive angles.  Best of all, it was Brad Free's "BEST" of the day.  Now typically I automatically double bets that are Free's "Best" (the same with NYRA handicapper Dave Liftin).  But I just had some lingering doubts, so I kept the minimum.  When I went to make the bet I again thought, ".....don't you want to double up with Brad Free?......" and finally held to my initial thoughts.  She went wire to wire, drawing off with authority as the 8/5 favorite!  Had I doubled the bet I would have finished with a $1.00 - yes that is a ONE - dollar profit :)  So I was content with the 37% win average and losing just a few dollars on the day. 

We are off on a five night Caribbean cruise on Saturday, so it's a nice break from racing before I gear up for the winter Gulfstream meeting on December 19 when I begin to handicap on a daily basis again.