Opening Day At Hollywood Park
As for today's racing action, I had handicapped only Churchill Downs and Hollywood. In my first selection under the Twin Spires, the second race, my top selection, Debit Card was on the lead at 7/2 as they turned for home, but faded to fifth through the final furlong. My next pick was in the 4th, a non-winners of three other-than optional allowance spot. My choice was Poetic Kid who was on a roll with three straight wins over the turf, including two at this mile distance and the latest was over the Churchill course. In addition he was a 4x turf winner. I wasn't surprised he was being bet as the favorite as I watched the racing action on HRTV, but then the analysts remarked that they didn't know what to make of betting Poetic Kid as the favorite considering the race was OFF THE TURF! What the!!!????? I felt better that (a) he was still being well played and that Jeff Siegel (remember he's one of the two hosts from "The Player") that I met on Breeders' Cup Friday, had made him his top choice and was sticking with it. He remarked that often turf and synthetic horses run well over the fast dirt at Churchill - and I've seen this many times....so everyone just take a deep breath! He was near the back, but it was only three off the leaders as the field was bunched together hitting the far turn. The rider asked and he was LONG GONE! Impressive win. I was happy to get $5.80, and with my double investment I cashed for nearly $30. I ran second in back-to-back picks when Thundergram led all the way to the final jump at Churchill and then in my first bet at Hollywood Park, Hear the Ghost ran second. In the end, that race cost me the black line of profit......he had not been out since scoring in the Grade 2 San Felipe (as my top pick at nearly 6/1!), but he was facing allowance runners. And today he was sprinting, but.....his debut here, had been in a sprint and he blew their doors off. I thought even if he wasn't cranked fully, which I was sure he wouldn't be, he had enough talent to win on class alone. I think he would have, but the rider really never tried to encourage him to work in my eyes. He simply sat on him like it was a public workout until they were inside the 16th pole. Would have been nice to know that they were simply working him out ahead of time. I lost a third in a row when Bradester was a disappointing 4th at 3/5 at Churchill. I had my reservations about him, and was glad I didn't do anything other than the minimum.
But I closed the day out with two wins from my last three bets. In the 10th and finale at Churchill Downs, we were going a one-turn mile in non-winners of three lifetime company. My pick was the morning line choice, Don't Slip. I was a bit skeptical in betting him because of the connections surprisingly. Owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey have set track records for wins as owners at Keeneland, Churchill, and Saratoga this year; and their primary trainer is Michael Maker. This three-some began connecting on a high percentage going back to Gulfstream after the first of the year. Since Churchill has opened this fall however, Maker has posted 1-for-26 mark! YIKES! And then in MOST uncharacteristic fashion, the Ramseys were completely shut out at the Breeders' Cup in spite of having about ten runners, who were nearly all considered viable win candidates. Well, Don't Slip was a Maker-Ramsey runner and for that I was skeptical - in fact I'd passed on a couple of others from these connection. But what made me go with Don't Slip was the fact that he was claimed two back for $10K.....then moved up to $20K where he didn't fare well. Today they double-dropped him to $7.5K. My thinking is that these guys are ALL about winning, and they needed a kick-start. If they won this race they'd cash in for about $7K for the purse, and if he got claimed, they would get another $7.5K - and it's a profit. It's a win-win. He went straight to the front, fended off the challengers on the turn and opened up to draw off handily! I doubled the bet and cashed for over $20! In the fifth at Hollywood I liked Woodslandway at 5/1. She'd improved in every start since coming to America and today was her first start for a claiming tag. HRTV analyst Kurt Hoover told everyone he REALLY liked this filly; on the class drop he didn't see it as a negative, but merely putting her where she belonged. He did say if she didn't have any stretch kick today, she'd never find a softer group. She got the perfect trip, at a juicy 3/1 price, and turning for home was a length off the leaders with clear run on the outside. The jockey asked and ........ nothing. After the race Hoover remarked, "....well, at least one good thing - I won't be wasting any of my money on Woodslandway anymore!" My final selection on this Thursday was in the 7th at Hollywood, a one mile turf allowance. The pick was Miss Well Molded who had been claimed out of a mid-priced claiming event where she'd drawn off with authority. Typically the move to allowance company, even off a big win like that is NOT a good investment proposition. But Miss Well Molded was claimed by Doug O'Neill and he was putting top rider Rafael Bejarano on board.....both positive angles. Best of all, it was Brad Free's "BEST" of the day. Now typically I automatically double bets that are Free's "Best" (the same with NYRA handicapper Dave Liftin). But I just had some lingering doubts, so I kept the minimum. When I went to make the bet I again thought, ".....don't you want to double up with Brad Free?......" and finally held to my initial thoughts. She went wire to wire, drawing off with authority as the 8/5 favorite! Had I doubled the bet I would have finished with a $1.00 - yes that is a ONE - dollar profit :) So I was content with the 37% win average and losing just a few dollars on the day.
We are off on a five night Caribbean cruise on Saturday, so it's a nice break from racing before I gear up for the winter Gulfstream meeting on December 19 when I begin to handicap on a daily basis again.
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