Friday November 15

A BIG Finish For Jason And I!

We'd just returned from our Caribbean Cruise Thursday, and with the bridal shower on Saturday, I knew my best chance for a "racing day" would be today while we were preparing for that big event.  I had bought the Daily Racing Form yesterday thinking that at best Jason and I could escape the frenzy of preparations, but knowing that we'd probably be able to help if we stayed home - but I could play the races online.  That's the beauty of twinspires.com in that it allows me to have very flexible "real life" experiences while enabling me to bet and watch the races at my leisure. I knew that even if we couldn't watch the races live, we'd be able to watch the replays at some point.  And just as I'd thought, we were asked to take care of several shower preparation tasks, but we were also able to watch all but one of the races live! 

The day did not start out with a lot of promise as in the first race on my sheet, Liesel was bet down from 6/1 to 2/1 and led to deep stretch, only to be caught in the final 100 yards, second.  At Churchill I had the 1/5 favorite in On the Same Page - and he was part of an entry with 1a-Gibes, but I did not like that one - in fact I wrote that if 'Page scratched I would pass the race.  Ironically though it was Gibes who battled to the wire while 'Page was a flat fifth.  But the entry went down to defeat when Gibes could not hold on and was second.  I was playing online on my computer at my desk, and Jason was watching.  After the this race I asked him if he had an online account.....I had assumed he was checking email and/or Facebook while we watched the races, but he told me he DID have an account and was playing with me......ahhhhh, the wonder of technology!  At Calder Giant Valley was the DRF Mike Welsch's "Best" of the day, and while that usually makes me leery, I agreed today.  Giant Valley was trained by Kirk Ziadie for Team Calabrese, and they are winning at a HUGE 54%; and with top rider Edgar Zayas on board they are winning at a nearly identical 53% rate.  No surprise 'Valley was the 1/5 favorite.  BIG SURPRISE that he didn't even hit the board - he looked uncomfortable from the moment he left the gate, fifth.  And he losing continued when Insolvent was a close second a miserly odds of 3/5 at Aqueduct.  Three out of four had been right there on the wire, so the handicapping was solid, just no results to support the selections!  Things began to turn around after the slow start.......

It was the third at Calder and I was on another Team Calabrese / Ziadie / Zayas runner.  This time it was first-time starting two-year-old Dreaminofauntdiane.  The barn was winning 45% with debut runners at a too big to believe $3.51 ROI.  Who DOESN'T get the memo on the Ziadie/Calabrese runners?  Somehow 'diane went off at an inflated 2/1 and scored!  The return of $6.00 added a nice $15 return and I was "back in the game!" 

Right back in less than a half hour, and again at Calder!  I had mixed feelings about Sharpova Slams.  On the upside there were two things that drew me to her......first, nothing about racing, but I've always noted her entry in a race because of tennis star/model hottie Maria Sharapova for whom she is named; but more importantly for today Shapova Slams had earned back-to-back 80 Beyers which were BOTH better than any lifetime figure of anyone else in the field.  On the negative side, both of these most recent numbers were big time aberrations from her consistent mid-60s numbers.  Still, I always say, you are either a believer in the Beyers or you are not...and I am.  One final hesitation and note I made on my sheet had to do with "Also Eligible" #10 Dream With Us.  She was coming off the shelf for Peter Walder, a 30% win angle and loved the Calder turf course (12/4-3-0).  She'd also earned an 80 on the turf, making her the only one who, by the numbers, could take down the favorite, AND jockey Edgar Zayas was slated to ride, a 41% jockey-trainer combo.  When Jason and I looked at the early odds I noted that Dream With Us was scratched.  So, I told him that I was making the "power decision" to double the investment since her numbers were now clearly superior.  Sharapova sat off the pace, but as heads turned for home she lengthened her stride and drew off late!  WHOOO HOOOO!  She paid a nice $4.20 and I cashed for over $20 and was now nearly back to even - here we go! 

The next two races saw my selections fail to run to expectations.  Easy Chair was a price play at 7/1 at Churchill, but was a distant 10th.....ouch.  Then Zhivago was allowed to go off at 5/1 over the Aqueduct turf.  I commented to Jason as they got into the gate how odd I thought this was since she had won two in a row, both off a layoff like today, AND she was the cover story (with big color photo) in the Form today.  The crowd knew best however as she made a bid on the turn, then could not sustain it......fifth.  It was now three pm and we'd only won two of eight on the day.  I looked at the remaining seven races and thought that I "should" win three more to get to my typical 30% win average, and I told Jason that we were truly due!  Delivery came in the next pick on the sheet.  As Jason gazed down at my selection I told him that Capital Goods had not inspired me all that much when I looked at the past performances, but then I noted that EVERY Churchill DRF analyst had him as their "BEST" of the day.  The pick was cinched when both track announcer Mark Johnson and the best online handicapper I know, Jill Byrne put him on top.  I had planned to double the bet in support of the DRF picks, but felt more confident now with Jill on board.  Despite all the confidence of the "experts" he still went off at 7/5 - and he romped as E-A-S-I-L-Y the best!  The payoff added nearly $25 to the account and again I was nearly back to even. 

The final play locally saw Manzutti unable to close the deal, 3rd at 6/5 over the Calder turf.  But then the "Run of the Day" started......in the opener at Hollywood Park San Onofre looked to be the speed of the race with Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith up.....easily wire to wire at odds on.  Next up it was the finale at Aqueduct.  Viva Allegiance was very similar to me in handicapping as Sharapova Slams.  He looked best of the main body, and had the solid angle of first-off-the-claim for David Jacobson (27% - $2.01 ROI).  But there was a horse on the AE list that worried me.  When he didn't draw in and the closest rival on paper was carrying NINE more pounds than 'Viva, I made another power move and upped the bet.  He split horse at the furlong marker and scored!  WHOOO HOOOO!  Nearly $6 on the payoff because of the NYRA breakage rule of breaking payoffs on the nickel rather than the dime (paid $5.90) and I moved into the black today by collecting almost $30!  Two in a row!  The final three bets were all at Hollywood.  In the fourth I liked Infosec.......for two reasons:  First he had finished third in his debut despite breaking behind the field and secondly because he was Brad Free's "Best" of the day.  The one thing I did not like so much was that Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert was dropping this juvenile out of maiden special company to maiden claimers.  Still, I doubled the wager.  He was pressing the pace down the backstretch in fourth, but as they moved into the turn he lost ground.....not good.  But once they were straightened away for the stretch run he seemed to switch gears and wore down the leaders, I thought on talent alone.  He's not a good horse, but he was best of these claimers.  The payoff earned me over $15. 

Jason and I watched one more race live before being called to duty for the shower and then to eat dinner with everyone (home-made pizza, yummy!).  The sixth at Hollywood was another juvenile maiden race.  But this time it was a maiden special.  Jason asked which of the two last picks did I have the most confidence in.  I told him that I liked Streaming in this race best because unlike Infosec who'd run for a tag, Streaming was a maiden special for Baffert.  And even better, I explained, when Martin Garcia rides a first-time-starter who's firing bullet works in the morning for Baffert it's a deadly combination.  I proved most correct in my analysis as he scored decisively......fourth in a row!

After dinner we headed out to the computer to watch the replay of the last bet of the day.  It was a turf sprint and I didn't have a lot of confidence in Et Tu Walker, but what I did like was that he'd always run well over this course (6/3-1-0).  As I opened Twin Spires Jason said, "I know who won, do you want to know before we watch?"  I couldn't tell if he was pleased or not, so I said no.  Et Tu Walker won with ease! OUR FIFTH WIN IN A ROW!  So for the day we finished a super 8-for-15, and with a clear profit!  I thought it was very interesting, and told Jason that the way the day had turned out was very similar to many days that I was at the races with my buddy Keith.  Jason had been making $20 bets (or more) and betting some exactas.  I had wagered all $5 and $10 bets with one exception, and all straight "WIN" bets, as is usual for me.  For the day he'd bet over $400 and collected $404.  I on the other hand had bet $111 and cashed for $127.25!  So the guy with the smaller investments had tripled the guy with the big investments :)  Go me!