Saturday October 19

October 19

Empire Showcase Day

We were in Houston this weekend to visit with our son Jeff, his wife Antoinette, and our adorable grandson Cameron.  The main reason we had planned this trip goes back some four years........Kim's twin sister was visiting and mentioned that there was a concert in town headlined by singer Michael Buble, who I'd never heard of.  We didn't go and then she had me copy a CD of his to my music files.  Well, I quickly became a huge fan and made myself the promise to get tickets the next time he was on tour and take Kim on a getaway weekend to see him as a birthday surprise.  For two years he didn't tour!  Then he went on tour, IN EUROPE!  Finally last spring I saw his first US tour in several years, as I periodically kept searching to make this surprise come true.  There it was, he was on tour.  My first thought, since I had several trips planned already was to go locally if he was in town.  And sure enough he was coming to Sunrise - but on the weekend I'm in Los Angeles for the Breeders' Cup!  So I revealed my idea to Kim and asked what city would she like to visit for her "surprise."  The first question she asked was if Buble had a stop in Houston so we could see him AND visit with our grandson!  What a great idea, and yep, he was in town on this weekend.  AND as an added bonus it was a weekend when Jeff's college team was off so he and I could spend a football Saturday together.  So we booked the trip.  The time with the family was great, but let me tell you my grandson is just THE cutest little man ever! 

So, the racing stories for the weekend.  With the Breeders' Cup just three weeks away I didn't think there would be much racing of any significance so my plan was to completely take the weekend off.  But then I read it was "Empire Showcase Day" and so I checked out the entries to see if anyone of interest to me was running.  Sure enough, there were three horses that I knew well and thought would win for fun; another that I'd won with in her last outing; and once I'd handicapped I found a fifth of interest as well.  I downloaded the past performances on Wednesday and handicapped the card.  I took my selections with me to Houston and on Saturday when Jeff and I started watching the early college games he asked if I had any races on my schedule and turned on TVG so we could watch the races play out.  The first of the NY-bred stakes I liked was the Joe A Gimma Stakes.  It looked to me like Court Dancer would be a short priced winner.  She had earned speed figures in both career starts better than anything her rivals had earned, and in her first start against winners she had run in an open graded stakes, finishing a good fourth.  The drop into this state-bred stakes should prove to be a winning spot I thought.  Still, lightly raced juvenile fillies I wagered just the minimum.  She left the gate at 3/5 (after opening at 1/9).  She tracked the speed into the stretch, but could never catch the loose-on-the-lead front runner, second best.  Next up was the Bertram Bongard, a state-bred stakes for juvenile colts.  I thought it was so obvious that the winner would be Wired Bryan; check out his pp's......

As you can see, he's run in three graded stakes and two state-bred races.  Both state-bred races were BLOW OUT wins, including a nice NY Breeders' Stakes last time out.  He'd won an OPEN Grade 2 and had missed by a nose to a tough Pletcher loose-on-the-lead front runner in another open Grade 2.  The only question was the 7 furlong Grade 1 Hopeful, which was a dismal effort.  Was it the 7 panels?  If it was, that raised questions about today.  My thought was since it was in the mud, and in Grade 1 company, it was a toss out in handicapping today's state-bred stakes on a fast track.  The crowd agreed and sent Wired Bryan off as the 1/5 favorite.  He bolted out of the gate and was LONG gone!  I had tripled the bet and was rewarded for my investment.  Made it an even sweeter win when Jeff also had the winner :) 

 

The 4th was my "BET OF THE DAY" and featured Cluster of Stars.  This filly looked similar to Wired Bryan when considering today's state-bred Iroquois Stakes..... 

Just like Wired Bryan, Cluster of Stars featured multiple graded races, and in fact was unbeaten in both graded stakes; was UNBEATEN overall, and had only raced in state-bred company once - in her debut win.  She had been ultra-impressive in winning the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom, and off that effort was one of my top contenders for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in a couple of weeks.  When I saw her connections had opted for this state-bred stakes instead it looked like easy money to me.  The only question was getting the seven furlongs.  However when I handicapped the race, not only was she the class of the field, but she was the L-O-N-E speed.  She looked to easily control the pace and stretch her speed with ease.....and she did!  WHOOO HOOO!  And again Jeff was on board. 

 

I didn't have another race until the 8th, the Ticonderoga Stakes.  I did not get to watch this race live, and missed a couple of hours of college football with Jeff when we felt pressured by the non-college-football fans in the family to "get out of the house" and enjoy the weather.  So we drove to Sugarland's cool city center to meet everyone.  But - at least to me - it was a wasted afternoon.  We looked at some cool Jaguar cars in a small car show, but that took all of fifteen minutes; then we went to an outdoor café where the table we got was in the sun.  So Cameron and I took a walk while we waited on two of the girls, who were enjoying "the weather outside" by shopping for jewelry for about 45 minutes.  We got back in the car and headed to the grocery and then back to watch the second half of some good football games.  I watched the replays of the last two races on the card on my phone.  In the Ticonderoga I had selected Effie Trinket.  She had won a state-bred stakes for me last time and my first inclination had been to go against her.  But when I looked over the field she looked to sit a perfect trip; was at an even better distance than when she'd won last time; and simply looked best of these.  I was fortunate that she went off at a very generous 7/2.  She saved ground all the way through the far turn but couldn't find any way off the fence, so jockey Luis Saez squeezed up the rail an was JUST up in time!  My third winner! 

The $9.40 payoff netted a cool $23.50 and I was guaranteed to be a winner for the day!  The last race on the card for me was the 10th, the Mohawk Stakes.  Like the Ticonderoga, it was on the turf at 8 1/2 furlongs.  When I'd read that Cluster of Stars was running today and I went online to look at the early entries I also saw that in this spot King Kressa was running.  I knew this guy because he'd run some great races this summer, most notably in the Grade 2 Fourstardave at Saratoga against defending Horse of the Year, Wise Dan......

But you'll notice in his past performances that he runs best on the lead.  When I handicapped the race I saw that there were others with front-running speed.  And while I was nearly certain they wouldn't win, I was leery that they could either take King Kressa out of his game, or soften him up for a closer. Still, his three consecutive triple digit Beyers, and that good second to Wise Dan were enough to make him my bet.  I was willing to toss the last out dismal effort in a Grade 1 going 1 1/2 miles - both WAY beyond his element.  But I wasn't as confident in him as I was Wired Bryan or Cluster of Stars.  But in considering the bet I felt better about his chances than those of Effie Trinket, so I doubled the bet.  Sure enough, a cheap-speed front runner (at better than 60/1) went to the front.  Jockey Irad Ortiz smartly let that one go and "took the lead" on the rest of the pack while chasing the longshot.  As they moved through the turn King Kressa blew by and was more than clear before the late runners had a chance to make a serious run at him. 

Best part about this race, other than it being my FOURTH win in five selections on the day, was that despite what I thought was pretty definitive handicapping angles, he paid a nice $6.20.....so my double investment paid out over $30!  For the day I'd won over $40 with just five selections! 

Wow - what a great day of racing!  Couple this with my selective handicapping last weekend and in my last two days at the races I've won TEN races from just sixteen selections!  That my friends is an outstanding 63% WINS!  Just a little bit about the rest of the weekend.  We enjoyed every minute with the family overall.  Sunday we went to Antoinette's soccer game and let me tell you she is a STAR!  Even in this co-ed league - she made the male goalie look stupid on both of her goals :)  Kim and I headed back to the hotel about 5 pm and got ready for Michael Buble.  We were a touch early for the concert, but considering it was in downtown Houston, to a place we'd never been, the last thing we wanted was to be either lost or caught up in traffic, especially at about $150 per seat!  Our seats were great and we really enjoyed the concert.  When he was on the main stage there was a gi-normous video screen behind him (as well as two huge ones on either side.  It had to be HD quality because it was like he was singing right in front of us.  And later in the concert he walked back through the crowd to a raised stage RIGHT IN FRONT OF US!  It was very, very cool.  See the pics below.....

Michael Buble on stage

Michael Buble RIGHT in front of us

 

Have to admit that taking the in-laws to the airport, a nearly two-hour adventure when I could have been spending the morning with Cameron was my first pick, but it made it possible for them to meet him for the first time.  It was very hard to say goodbye to the little man, and to my first-born son - much more so than when we visited in August because then we knew we'd be back in a relatively short span of time, but this time we have no immediate plans to return. 

 

Saturday October 12

It's An ALL - STAKES Day of Racing!

It looked to be a full day of college football and a good day to focus on just the stakes races across the country.  So after buying the "Reader's Digest" version of the Daily Racing Form - as my friend Vinny calls it, I only turned to the stakes races being run.  After I'd gone through the cards for Gulfstream, Keeneland, Calder, Belmont, Santa Anita, and found a stakes at Hawthorne, I turned to the full pp's and looked for any stand outs.  I found two more allowance races and my card was complete with eleven selections.  I posted my selections on Facebook and listed two of them as my "BEST BETS" of the day...

Kim had gone to the beach for the afternoon to paddle-board with her friend Elaine, so I drove out to Calder to make my bets with "real money" - by cashing my ticket on Kitten Kaboodle from Wednesday's Jessamine Stakes.

The first race on my sheet was the third at Calder.  As you can read in my analysis, this guy just laid over the field.  I knew the price would be short, but hey.....a win is a win!  And after Wednesday's long string of second place finishes I was looking for as many wins as I could find today!  :)  I went to my favorite teller, with whom I like to make a list of late bets (he is very efficient and have NEVER known him to make an error in punching the track, race or horse number I give him).  When I got half way through the list and came to the one race at Gulfstream I wanted, he told me that today Calder was not taking bets on Gulfstream.  Really?  I asked.....wow, it's sad I remarked.  He agreed.  And then when I was making my final selection of the day at Santa Anita he told me that Calder was not taking bets on Santa Anita.  Double wow.....all the Stronach owned tracks were off the board.  I asked if Gulfstream was not taking Calder's signal either, he nodded with a sad smile.  So, I walked out to the rail and with five minutes to post Black Karma sat at 1/5.  Fair odds all things considered.  I thought probably at the last minute he might tick up to 2/5, which would be stealing.  But instead as they were all in the gate he flashed down to a paltry 1-9.  He shot right to the lead, but was pressed to the turn. Midway through the turn I could see the other horse's rider was really working while Edgar Zayas was just sitting frozen in the saddle.....I'm home free!  He walked with it.

I looked it up, over the summer's list of bets - nearly 850 races - NONE of them went off, ZERO at odds this low.  Not unbeaten Black Cavier (who paid $2.30); not Horse of the Year Wise Dan who paid $2.80, $3.20, and $2.80; none of them paid this low as a third-time starter at Calder in a nw2L allowance that paid $2.10 to win.  That is an amazing number!  For my $15 investment I got back $15.75! 

I headed home to watch the football games and the races on HRTV & TVG.  The next race on the schedule was the first of five stakes races on the Festival of the Sun card at Calder. It was the Tropical Park Derby and I reluctantly went against the Ken & Sarah Ramsey owned favorite, but this guy had a single win in his $75K maiden claimer on his resume, and had not only missed in graded stakes, but also allowance races.  My pick was 8/1 and looked to have a real shot in mid-stretch but finished third.  In the 7th, the first of the two "big races" - purse worth over $300K - I thought Scandalous Act was a standout.  The only question, as I mentioned in my analysis was her ability to go two turns.  Into the first turn she was in front but was dueling all the way.  This went on to the far turn with the field closing in.  But as they turned for home jockey Eduardo Nunez asked for her best and she rocketed away from the field, winning easy as she pleased!  The payoff of $3.00 was MUCH nicer than that of Black Karma! 

Right away, the next race on the schedule was the colt's version of the "big race," the In Reality division of the Florida Stallion Stakes.  The short-priced favorite had won twice for me, the latest on Travers Day in the Affirmed Division going seven furlongs.  I had not gone "all in" that day because the connections of Best Plan Yet had said they thought they might get him in that spot, but were "certain" they would reverse the outcome when the racing went two turns.  I wasn't ready to go "all in" on him today, and felt I might get 5/2 or better because not only was My Brown Eyed Guy going to be the favorite, but his trainer/owner connections were the same as those of Scandalous Act; I thought a lot of fans would see this as a "meant-to-be" sweep.  Best Plan Yet was 5/2 as they went to the post; then 2/1 as they loaded, but dropped to 9/5 as they turned down the back side.  I thought he'd sit off the pace and rally into the stretch.  But a seam opened up as they approached the far turn and the rider could wait no more.  Jeffrey Sanchez shot through the seam and the race was over!  Cashed again for my third win in four picks! 

The first of the two featured turf races at Belmont was up next. The question facing me was if Boisterous, who'd won a Grade 1 race three back, over the top for the season, or were his last three losses - all close finishes against much better than today's rivals - due to less than ideal circumstances.  He figured to get the kind of turf he liked, some cut in the ground with recent rain in New York, but I wasn't supremely confident.  I doubled the bet.  He made a belated run and hung through the stretch, fading to 6th.  The next two spots came up nearly simultaneously. 

The 9th at Calder & the 7th at Gulfstream.  At Calder it was the Frances Genter going 7.5 furlongs on the turf and I liked Dreaming of Sophia who had paired Beyers in back to back stakes wins.  She made a good run at 3/5, but couldn't get to the winner, 3rd.  My lone selection at Gulfstream was in a 2x allowance on the turf.  Blameshifter looked MUCH the best IF he ran back to his August races.  I had made the bet via TwinSpires on my phone since Calder wouldn't take the live bet.  Ironic that the online wagering platform, which is owned by Churchill Downs like Calder is, WOULD take my money.  I read later that the problem was that (a) Calder had sent out Gulfstream's signal to a casino just blocks from Gulfstream, which contractually they'd agreed not to do.  To their credit Calder withdrew the signal and apologized.  But to me, the more serious problem was that Calder owed Gulfstream $5 million for bets made on their simulcasts.  That's not right.  Calder's response was that Gulfstream was supposed to wait ten days to withdraw their signal if there was a problem. I find it hard to believe that Gulfstream had been owed the money one day and withdrawn the signal the next.  Just another example of why Calder is not long for this world as a racing facility.  Blameshifter stalked the pace, moved off the rail as they turned for home and it was all over.  I win AGAIN! 

Then it was time for my other best of the day, and in this one I thought I had a chance for a nice price.  In the Grade 3 Athenia at Belmont there looked to be no speed in the race.  I'd seen Pianist run this winter at Gulfstream, and she was quick.  Add in she goes out for Chad Brown, I thought she would be LONG gone.  The gates opened and quickly a longshot sprinted to the lead.  I guess I won't be the lone speed.....I quickly opened the Racing Form and was comforted that she had raced from off the pace, but I thought her big advantage in this spot against some quality closers, was her ability to control the race.  As they hit the far turn it was the longshot and Pianist on an easy lead, but more importantly they were four or five clear of the rest of the field.  Pianist made her move and was suddenly four in front at the 1/8th pole.  But here came the closers.  I said "wire....wire...WIRE...." but she was never threatened.  My FIFTH win on the day.  And the best news yet, she went off at 5/2!  The prices came up and she had been just one tick off 3/1, so the $7.90 payoff would yield nearly $80 for me!  I am a big winner on the day regardless of how the final two races come out!  WHOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO! 

It was over 90 minutes to the next race.  The football games had been pretty much what I'd hoped for.  In the two early games Texas had beaten Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry in Dallas and Georgia went down to Missouri......love it when Georgia and Tennessee lose, as they are big rivals to my Florida Gators!  But he Gators had no offensive punch and they went down to defeat at LSU.  As they were approaching the gate at Hawthorne the best game of the day was finishing - Penn State upset unbeaten Michigan in front of their home fans in FOUR overtimes, when THREE times they were "certain" to lose, only to block one field goal and have the Wolverine kicker miss the other two! 

At the Chicago track we were on the grass in the Carey Memorial.  I did not have the past performances, but had read the analysis in a feature article in the Daily Racing Form.  The Pizza Man, who'd won nine of twelve turf races was listed at 4/1 in the program, and that was absurd.  I thought he had a great chance to win, especially since he was 2-for-2 here at Hawthorne.  He was chasing a loose-on-the-lead front runner (who's rider was my former student Rosemary Hoemeister, Jr.).  But in the final strides he was able to get his nose down on the wire first.  He had left the gate as the favorite, when the program favorite had scratched out of the race.  But he was a fair 3/2 in the final betting.  So the $5.00 payoff meant my sixth win would add $25 to my winnings on the day!  In the last of the eleven races on my selection sheet I ran third at Santa Anita in the California Distaff Handicap going down the hill on the turf course.  It was the first time I'd seen Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens NOT give his mount a good ride.  He was on the rail and instead of getting free for run as they came down the hill, he stuck to the rail and got shut off.  By the time he worked outside and rallied it was too late, 3rd. 

So for the day I'd won six of eleven - an amazing 55% winning percentage.  And for the second consecutive day of racing, I'd had a nice profit for the day!  AND.....if you'd been with me on Facebook and bet the two "best" bets, you'd have won them both and collected nearly $80 in profit!

 

Wednesday October 9

What an A - M - A - Z - N - G Day!

Well, as often as the journals and stories from my racing days are often "that's a first" kind of thing, today was TRULY one of those days.  I can't ever remember having this kind of day where the events of the day combined like they did today.  I decided to go (a) just because I can now that I'm retired and haven't taken advantage of that very much this fall; and (b) because there was a nice graded stakes at Keeneland so it would make for a good day of racing I thought.  It also didn't hurt that I had not been out of the house to go anywhere for many a day during the week.  The first thing that was interesting came on Tuesday when I went to buy the Daily Racing Form.  When I was in Ohio and the first day I picked up my Mom's daily newspaper, the Columbus Dispatch I was surprised that it was now the size of a magazine, or smaller.  Well, when I went to get the Form it too was now a small sized publication. 

I can't decide how I feel about it.  It is convenient, it is the size of a typical race program; and the font actually seems a little larger.  The paper is supposedly  brighter white in color to make for easier reading.  And there are some additional handicapping tools.  Regardless, I handicapped for Belmont, Keeneland, Laurel, and Delaware Park. 

The first race on my sheet was at Belmont and I was the event money favorite......2nd.  Little did I know this was foreshadowing for the day!  I ran 6th at 7/5, then 3rd at 9/5 and a very disappointing 6th at 2/5 at Laurel.  Interestingly, much like Saturday when Calder did not carry Indiana Downs, today they didn't carry Laurel's signal.  Which made little sense because there are very few tracks running midweek....what ever  Finally a winner, but oh what a winner and a story!

The race was the 3rd at Keeneland, a typical Wednesday afternoon race, and non-winners of two lifetime for juvenile fillies.  We were going a mile on the turf.  As I looked through the past performances of the entries nothing jumped out at me.  There were about three logical runners, but nothing that looked like a horse with a solid advantage to bet on them.  Then on the second pass through the field I saw the #6-Street Sailing.  And in particular I noticed her trainer stats.....

Note the highlighted areas - while Street Sailing had never been on the turf the trainer earns $3.42 for every $2 bet on his first time turf runners.  When that number is over $2 it's a big number, so $3.42 is a HUGE number!  But can she turf?  In the car box, you'll note that she has Tomlinson numbers of over 400 for both distance and turf......a "300" means a horse is well suited to the surface or distance, so she is truly bred for turf an distance.  With all her career starts being sprints I thought she'd show some speed, in a race without much speed.  And finally, the two other trainer stats that leaped off the page - moving a horse from synthetic to turf produced an ROI of $4.57 and the best stat of all is when the barn has a horse stretch out to a route after two sprints they win an amazing 60% and they pay an average of $14.88 for every $2!  This barn wins with longshots!  Add in the fact that she debuted against the boys and ran second, then beat Maiden Specials in her second start.  The fact that her connections brought her off the shelf in a stakes told me they thought highly of her, so today's non-winners of 2 lifetime was a very comfortable spot for her if they were right.  The program odds were 15/1, but she left the gate at 16/1.  Right away I was hopeful as she was pressing the pace into the backstretch.  When the field hit the far turn she and the leader were separated from the field and the rider had no asked yet.  The closers began to accelerate as they straightened for home, but then Street Sailing was given her cue and she EXPLODED.  She opened up to, as track announcer Kurt Becker called it, "CRUSH the field!"  She won by about ten WIDENING lengths.  The $2 payoff was posted at $34.80 and I was ready to cash for over $85!  I posed for a celebration photo and posted it on Facebook for all my friends and followers!  WHOOO HOOO! 

 

After the big win I had back-to-back scratches, so my next race was in the 4th at Keeneland.  Unfortunately the same pattern as earlier in the day started all over again as I went TEN straight without a win before heading for home.  At Keeneland I was third with a first-off-the-claim for Michael Maker and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey, normally a near 30% win proposition;  third again at 3/5 at Delaware and a miserable 7th as the 2/1 favorite with German import Ay No Digas on the turf.  No surprise when 34/1 upset shot Viramundo showed little to finish last at Keeneland.  And then "the streak" started after a 6th over the Delaware turf.  I looked at the remaining races and thought, "....if I hit 30% today then I'm about to win at least five of the last nine picks today..."  At Laure I was 2nd at 8/5 with a first-off-the-claim runner for Jamie Ness (a 38% winning angle).  Then in a photo finish at Keeneland I was second, again, at 2/1 when Tropic of Artie could not finish the deal after taking a brief lead at the top of the lane.

At Belmont I was SECOND at 5/2 with Wonderfully Wild.  At Delaware I was SECOND with Revocation at 3/5 and just before I left I was S-E-C-O-N-D AGAIN at Keeneland when Gal About Town couldn't win as the 3/5 favorite.  I made my last four bets and headed home, shaking my head at the great score, offset by the MULTIPLE losses, especially the parade of runner-up finishes.  As soon as I got home I turned on the TVG recorded races and watched my pick in Belmont's featured Coastal Stakes, Todd Pletcher's Midnight Taboo, run SECOND at 3/1.  Wow.....how long can this go on?  Mercifully I was 4th and NOT second at Laurel when Stephanoatsee lost at in an allowance spot. 

When I had cashed the big ticket I first had a thought I should profit for the day; but I counted up the bets for the remainder of the day - and remember that win came at 2:00 in just my fifth selection of the day - I calculated I "only" needed to collect $85 to come out a winner for the day.  Of course, I had no way of knowing that I'd pile up all the second place finishes late in the day.  But I was clinging to the small hope of maybe getting close to even if I could cash on my "BEST" of the day.  That was coming in the featured Gr 3 Jessamine at Keeneland. When I had checked my Facebook account before even leaving for the track Keeneland had posted the question to their followers, "Who do you like in the Jessamine Stakes today."  I responded that not only did I like Kitten Kaboodle, but she was my "BEST" of the day (note the "LIKE" to my comment - this came from the Keeneland facebook administrator :)

Here was my thinking......in her debut, this Ramsey filly had raced at Saratoga at this distance over the turf.  She rallied strongly through the lane, but was steadied in traffic late costing her the victory.  She still was second, beaten slightly more than a length in spite of the troubled trip.  She was the even money favorite in her next start in mid-August, facing one of today's rivals, Candy Kitty.  But that day this Pletcher filly went to the front and somehow was allowed to set what DRF analyst Byron King termed a "comical" pace of :27.2, :53.4, and 1:17.4 all alone on the lead.  Any chance of Kitten Kaboodle rallying into that pace were slim to none.  Add on to this the fact that my filly had also stumbled out of the gate and you'd have to admit that her ability to finish a best-of-the-rest second was remarkable indeed.  She legitimately could have won BOTH races.  Well, since that start she'd moved into Chad Brown's barn and he's a super trainer, especially on the turf.  His winning numbers with horses making their first start after transferring into his barn....30%!  With a much stronger pace anticipated today, I thought she had an excellent chance to win and made her my "BET of the Day."  I turned to see what DRF's Byron King had to say, and interestingly she was HIS "Best."

As I got to the start of the race on TVG two of the analysts were saying they both felt that Kitten Kaboodle was the one to beat.  But luckily the odds were a juicy 7/2!  She sat a perfect tracking trip, saving ground along the rail.  As the came through the turn several closers began to move and the field was stacked up at least five across the track as they began to turn heads for home.  But at this moment the front-runner didn't corner well, opening up a seam on the inside, and then veered outside for a stride or more, parting the seas on the inside with an open invitation to Kitten Kaboodle to make her run. Jockey Alan Garcia shook the reins and it was over.  Not only did she have the best trip, but she was CLEARLY the best filly as she drew off to win by nearly five widening lengths! 

The best news came when prices were posted on the board.  She had held her odds and the payoff for a $2 bet was $9.40.  With my $20 "Prime Time" investment I was going to cash for $94.00!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Combine that with the other payout of $86 and I am a profitable winner for the day of a clean Andrew Jackson $20!  The fact that The Lady Says Yes ran second, yes second again, was inconsequential to me.  My numbers for the day, a less-than-inspiring 19 selections, 2 wins, EIGHT SECONDS, and 3 thirds.  But for a profit of $20 for the day!  Check out my handicapping video and race replays of the two big wins below.......

Sunday October 6

EMOLLIENT WINS!

One of my favorite sophomore fillies, Emollient was entered for today's Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster.  She has been inconsistent, but when she scores it has been with a display of talent that is fun to watch.  Knowing that she was not a "Best" bet I looked over the races being run today and read through the analysis to see if there were any other solid selections.  I found what looked like five good spots to bet, and played online.  Later in the evening I watched the replays, and then the final race live on TVG. 

My first selection came at Woodbine in the Grade 3 Durham Cup.  Delegation was listed as the 4/5 program choice and was Jim Bannon's top selection.  He won by nine widening lengths at Woodbine two back and then dueled with likely Horse of the Year, Game On Dude (if he gets the BC Classic win) in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic.  He left the gate as the odds-on 1/4 choice, but faded badly to 6th.  The next race on the sheet was the Spinster. 

Emollient had been my top choice on Florida Derby Day to win the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, but she'd run dully.  The very next weekend, on just seven days rest, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott had entered her in the Grade 1 Ashland.  I wrote in my analysis that I didn't believe Mott would do that if he wasn't convinced she'd win - he's typically very conservative with his runners.  She ran away from the field and paid over $14!  AND most important for today's race, it was over this Keeneland surface!  In that win and in her win in the Grade 1 American Oaks - her first try over grass when shipped out west - she had been close to the pace.  I felt sure Mike Smith - who'd won four races at Santa Anita Saturday and then flown here - would put her right on the lead, or just off the lead.  The gates opened and he gave her two quick taps on the hip to get her into early gear......but she'd have nothing of it!  Quickly she dropped to the back of the field.  Really?  But as they came down the back stretch she began to pick off horses, and by the time they hit the turn she was moving smoothly to the leaders.  She was spun about six wide out of the turn, but now she was in high gear and she BLEW by to score going away!  My double investment was rewarded with a nice payoff of more than $30! 

 

My final three selections were all at Santa Anita.  The second race on the card was an allowance and Declassify was the 2/5 favorite in the program.  That is REALLY rare to see a horse listed at those odds on the morning line.  Brad Free noted she'd posted back-to-back Beyers I his last two starts with blow-out wins.  He had been entered in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Saturday, but scratched for this softer spot.  Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens sealed the deal.  He went right to the front, opened up, and the as they turned for home stopped like he was shot at 1-4 odds.  Sigh......In the third race Free commented that if Diamond Bachelor came back to win today's Zuma Stakes after winning his maiden and a small stakes last out, he just might be the BC Juvenile Turf favorite.  He too was odds-on at 2/5.  He stalked the leader, surged to the front in mid-stretch, but was caught late....2nd.  The final selection on the day was my "Best" of the day.  I'd seen Clenor win over the Del Mar turf and was really impressed.  Today she was looking to use the Surfer Girl Stakes as a final prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.  There appeared to be enough pace to set up her late kick, and so I tripled the bet.  She was sitting in mid-pack for Rafael Bejarano - a little closer to the lead than when I'd last seen her run - and as they hit the far turn he stepped on the gas.  Effortlessly she inhaled the leaders and went to the front.  Though the margin of victory was small, it was under a confident hand ride the entire length of the stretch.  MUCH the best!  WHOOO HOOO!

Saturday October 5

Down Go The Grade 1 Winners!

When I look back on today, and frankly when most handicappers look back on today, the one thing most will remember is how today was the day when MANY Grade 1 winners were putting in their final prep for the 2013 Breeders' Cup and instead of building momentum, they were sent down to defeat at very short odds.  And with those multiple defeats, so went my profit for the day.  Still, I had a fairly good day of handicapping (10-for-37, 28%) and cashed on six stakes races.  Here's how the day played out........

In the opener at Belmont I thought Todd Pletcher's Atlantic Dream had a solid chance to rebound at a big price.  In his last he was the 2/1 favorite over many of these, and today he was listed at 6/1 in the program.  He left the gate at 6/1 and made a bold move spinning out of the turn, only to be narrowly beaten in third.  But I bounced right back with three straight victories.  The first was at Keeneland in their opener.  Trainer Michael Maker had entered Ken & Sarah Ramsey's All Alex, and named Julian Leparoux to ride.  The connections don't get much better than that and he finished strongly in the final 16th to produce my first winner.  Ten minutes later trainer Kirk Ziadie sent out Dreaming of Bella for Team Calabrese, with Edgar Zayas on board.  And you DO NOT get any better than that locally as she wired the 7 furlong distance as the favorite.  I topped off my trifecta of winners wen I tabbed Madison Street in Calder's third race as my "Bet of the Day" at the Miami Gardens oval.  I thought she was quickest of the group, and especially at 5 1/2 furlongs would have little trouble leading them on a merry chase.  Right to the front and LONG GONE! 

After cashing on three of my first four picks, I was anticipating another 40% plus day and looking forward to the multiple "best" bets I had later on the stakes-laden cards around the country.  Over the next sixty minutes I could not find the winner's circle however.  At Gulfstream Team Calabrese and Kirk Ziadie could not seal the early double.  Possible Dreams was Mike Welsch of the DRF "best" of the day, so upped the wager.  At Belmont I ran third with Chasintheblues who was VERY close on the wire at a nice 3/1.  Fourth at Calder when Flyin Trey could not repeat his last effort as the 3/2 favorite.  At Keeneland Greyfall was 3rd at 5/2 for Bill Mott and I ended the string of losses with another second, this time at Indiana Downs.  I typically don't bet Indiana Downs, but today was their Indiana Derby Day card which featured six stakes races.  Interesting story......at about 20 minutes before post time I went front-to-back on both floors at Calder searching for a monitor with the Indiana Downs races.  Not finding one I asked at information if they were taking wagers on Indiana Downs, and the answer was "No."  Luckily through the wonder of technology I was able to wager AND watch the races on my iPhone! 

Finally I was cashed when at Calder I doubled the investment on Loveyouallthetime.  Another interesting side story......I debated about which track to go to today, Calder or Gulfstream.  I had multiple selections on both programs, and finally settled on Calder because their simulcast television set-up is better.  I get there and find that while at Gulfstream the racing conditions are "Fast and Firm," at Calder it is "Fast and OFF the turf!"  It's near 90 degrees and we haven't had rain since Thursday afternoon, but that's how Calder management has traditionally been......it rained this week, we're off the turf.  SOOO many times I've lost picks due to these crazy decisions (if it is legitimate then what's wrong with the course that it can't take water like Gulfstream, minutes away?).  At any rate I had a turf pick and a "Main Track Only" selection.  Loveyouallthetime had the perfect draw, post 12, to stalk the frontrunner and blow by in the lane.  The race played out EXACTLY as I'd seen it!  WHOOO HOOOO.  cashed for $20.  Fifteen minutes later I scored my first win at Monmouth - I only had two picks on the Jersey Shore today - when juvenile filly Flay Mignon rocketed out of the gate and was clear throughout under a confident hand ride in their feature, the Jersey Juvenile Stakes!  It was my Monmouth "Best" of the day!

They had no sooner crossed the finish line that I was at Indiana Downs watching Rivertown Belle draw clear late in the Hoosier Breeders' Sophomore Stakes on my iPhone....got back $30! 

Off this second 3-race win streak I stood at 6-for-11 on the day, and still felt like the best was yet to come.  As Coach Corso says on ESPN's College Game Day, "Not so fast my friend!"  The wheels were about to come off the proverbial wagon.......I was clear into the lane in a Belmont turf sprint with Hothersal, only to be caught late at 2/1.  Then the first of multiple stakes races came up at Keeneland.  I had picked Great Mills, against my gut feeling, but he simply had the best numbers and class, in spite of struggling to win in these kinds of spots.  He tossed in the towel on the turn and was 10th as the 5/2 second choice.  My third choice, Havelock, won and paid over $17.....sigh.  I missed at Gulfstream in a turf maiden claimer, yeah - ON the turf - wow.  Then the first of the "BIG" bets.....Keeneland's 56th was the Grade 2 TCA Oaks.  I wondered about Groupie Doll "bouncing" off the track record win at Presque Isles, but I thought they were building momentum for the Breeders' Cup.  When I read that her trainer was exuding confidence I went "all in" on her.  She was a little closer to the pace than usual and when asked for her late kick, it wasn't there.  She lost to my third choice who paid $10.  Wow x 2!  The Quality Road Stakes at Gulfstream saw me suffer another loss when Where's Sterling could not make up any ground on the loose-on-the-lead front runner, and crossed the wire 4th as the 1/1 favorite.  I closed out this skid with a dull 5th b Say (at 5/2) in the Grade 1 First Lady over the Keeneland turf.  But it was very hard to watch her race because it was a DRIVING rainstorm.  So bad in fact that management took the rest of the races off the turf - including the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf! 

I began what I hoped would be a late rally & recovery in the first stakes race at Santa Anita.  It was the Swingtime Stakes, going a mile over the turf.  There wasn't a single horse in the field that wanted to lead.  But #1-Miss Pippa had shown some early speed many races back.  With "rider-for-hire" Mike Smith, and the rail draw, I thought she'd go right to the front and steal it.  But Smith had other ideas.  He took her to the BACK of the field - where I was sure he had little chance to close into an average at best pace.  But as they turned for home he split horses and was up in time!  That's why he's a Hall of Fame rider, and I'm not! 

Better to be lucky than right when it comes to why you pick the winner!  :)  But my luck completely ran out on the day over the next 75 minutes.  Fifth in the Ta Wee at Indiana with Street of Gold at 2/1; 6th at Belmont in the Grade 1 Jamaica for sophomores.  I had War Dancer who stalked the pace at a juicy 6/1, and was making what I thought was a winning move in mid-stretch when he was completely shut-off by a wall of horses and he finished a close 6th while still full of run :(  At Monmouth Major Score was 1-9 for most of the betting before finally floating up to 7/5 at post time.  No where to be found, 5th.  In the Mari Hulman George at Indiana Downs my bad racing luck continued when Don't Tell Sophia was boxed in through the entire final turn.  When she got free she was absolutely flying, but had lost nearly six lengths on the eventual winner.  I am certain she was the best horse, but no money to prove it.  I was second AGAIN in the Grade 1 Frizette for two-year-old fillies at Belmont going a one-turn mile when the 3/5 favorite Sweet Reason - who'd been ultra impressive in two wins at Saratoga - basically did the splits coming out of the gate and quickly spotted the field about ten lengths.  The rider was patient, let her settle, then made a big run through the lane.....a close, but non-threating runner-up check for her.  Then in the most disappointing finish of the day, it was the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland scheduled for the turf. It was very interesting to me that ten horses were in the field with Horse of the Year Wise Dan. He was coming off a scintillating score in a course record time in the Woodbine Mile.  When the race was moved to the main track I was even more surprised when all ten stayed in the race.  I considered briefly changing my bet, but then remembered his career best 117 Beyer when he annexed the Grade 3 Fayette over this very main track in the spring of 2012.  His five-for-six synthetic record was easily best of anyone in today's lineup.  Despite being in post 10 he was quickly only two-or-three wide down the back stretch and well I hand behind front-runner Silver Max.  He was right on that one's hip as they went through the turn, and then Jockey John Velazquez shook the reins.  Over the last 18 months that had always resulted in an instantaneous and electrifying acceleration as he blew by the leaders.  But today, no response!  Velazquez worked him through the lane and while it's true that Silver Max did not lengthen his lead, and at one point I still thought Wise Dan would gut it out, he could not get by.......second, again.  The worthless tickets continued when Rail Trip was a distant 9th in the Schaefer at Indiana, and then multiple Grade 1 turf miler Obviously - who is CLEARLY the best and fastest of the milers out west - rated nicely behind cheap speed, opened up two into the lane then had no response as not one, not two, but THREE horses ran by him to the wire.  WOW. 

FINALLY I got back on the board, and the nice price was of some consolation to me.......it was the Grade 1 Champagne for two-year-old colts at Belmont, going a one-turn mile.  Earlier in the day a guy had shown me his winning exacta at Belmont and he said, "who's your best at Belmont today?"  I pointed out that I really liked Havana in the Champagne.  I explained he would NOT be the favorite, and while I had a lot of respect for the other two top contenders, I pointed out how much Havana resembled champion Uncle Mo from 2010.  Like that one, Havana had broken his maiden with a 102 Beyer going 5 1/2 furlongs, then waited for the one-mile Champagne.  He won that and then was much the best in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to secure 2-year-old of the year in 2010.  Well, as they were loading into the gate the same guy was there, and he said, "this is your horse."  I agreed, and then he said he had looked at the other two and could not go by the favorite.  Well, Havana had been 7/1 when I bet my $20.  He was 6/1 with five minutes to post time and I was counting my nearly $150!  Then 4/1 as they neared the gate - ok, I'll take $100.  Then 7/2 as they loaded and 3/1 as they were let go.  Instead of gunning to the front jockey Irad Ortiz patiently stalked the long-shot leader through the far turn.  He saved all the ground and as heads began to turn for home he accelerated and quickly Havana was four in front!  At the furlong marker he looked long gone and the favorite was not making any progress.  But Honor Code, the third of the three I had pointed out to my "friend" was rallying EIGHT wide.  He had won last time out coming from an amazing twenty-two lengths behind at the top of the stretch, and he was gobbling up ground with massive strides.  I looked like I was safely home, but it was close on the wire, but without a doubt the winner! 

Havana paid $7.20 so I collected nearly $75! I cashed my ticket, ten made my final set of bets downstairs and walked outside to film the recap video.  When I got home and watched the replays (at halftime of the mighty Florida Gators win over Arkansas on prime-time ESPN2!) I was disappointed when Ballistic Sue was a fade-to-last 9th at Keeneland; Magic Daddy was a nowhere to be found 10th at Santa Anita; and most disappointed when my "BEST" of the day at Indiana Downs, Fiftyshadesofhay - the Grade 1 Black Eyed Susan winner, and most recently runner-up to Princess of Sylmar who exited that race to beat reigning queen of North American racing Royal Delta - ran third as the overwhelming 2/5 favorite.  She took a clear lead into the stretch but had nothing left to finish the race.  ANOTHER huge disappointment.  Lost the finale at Belmont on the turf when With Exultation was a late-running third.  I almost had a big chance to get a lot of my money back when horse-for-the-course Mr. Bossy Pants was long gone into the lane at Santa Anita.  He loves downhill turf course, having posted SIX wins at that distance, but as he ran through the lane he was running two steps to the outside for every one step to the wire.  3rd at a bit 6/1 and I'd doubled the bet.....that was at least $70 missed :( 

I finally had another winner when Bob Baffert's Power Broker splashed his way to the front late in the Grade 2 Indiana Derby and held on by two.  He was a generous 8/5, so I collected nearly $30. 

Two more huge disappointments followed at Santa Anita.  Executiveprivilege, a multiple Grade 1 winner as a two-year-old was returning in a listed stakes, the L.A. Woman, and her closing style looked to really be set up with multiple speed types.  Evenly at 2/1 for fourth.  Then my co-best of the day in an allowance spot, Key Vista finished dead last  While it's true he was coming off a huge 102 win in his maiden score, and could easily regress today.  He looked EASILY quickest to the front and he had fired a best-of-51 bullet work in a sizzling :58.2 for five furlongs.  Add in Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens and I thought - as did nearly everyone else as he left the gate at 2/5 - he was tons the best.  He dueled to the far turn and simply stopped.  But, the day ended on a positive note.  The final big prep for the Breeders' Cup Sprint came here in the 9th at Santa Anita, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint.  I thought it was pretty obvious that Points Offthebench, the last-out winner of the Grade 1 Bing Crosby, was the most likely winner.  Partly because I anticipated him being a short price I only doubled the bet.  When I cranked up the replay video I saw he was not only every bit of the 4/1 program odds, but had floated up to an amazing 9/2!  Hall of Fame Mike Smith topped off a huge day by gliding him to the front-runner in mid-stretch and the coaxing him home under a hand ride.  T

he prices came up.....a big $11.20 for a $2 wager, so I'm cashing out for nearly $60!  He could be the Breeders' Cup Sprint favorite off these two very impressive Grade 1 wins!  So, as I said at the beginning, TEN big wins, and the last race big score left me feeling "OK" about the day, but I won't soon forget these Grade 1 winners who all went down to defeat for me today:

Breeders' Cup Champion Groupie Doll
European Group 1 winner Say
Horse-of-the-Year Wise Dan
Multiple Grade 1 winner Obviously

Grade 1 Black Eyed Susan winner Fiftyshadesofhay

Multiple Grade 1 winner Executiveprivilege

 

Check out the video highlights of the day and the entire three-day weekend here:



Friday October 4

Opening Day At Keeneland!

Two years ago today on Opening Day at Keeneland I was in Lexington for the event.  I really like playing the Keeneland Spring and Fall meets as it's such a unique surface and the meet itself is such a "boutique" meet with horses coming from all over, all different surfaces.  It is a real handicapping challenge!  Their biggest weekend in the fall is always Opening Weekend when there are three consecutive days of multiple graded stakes with most of them being "Win and You're In!" Breeders' Cup Challenge races.  Today was no exception. 

Of the ten races on the card, I had selections in five of them, and only two of them warranted an added money play.  In fact originally my "Best" of the day was just a double bet......but as you'll soon see, that changed!  I handicapped the card as I normally do when I have a handicapping project, listing my top three selections.  In the opener my top choice, even though I passed the race, was on the lead in deep stretch, only to be caught by a 19-1 longshot.  One of my two double investments was in the second where I liked Christiesborntorun in a claiming event.  She was plunging in class and being sent out first off the claim by trainer Michael Maker for owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  This team has been deadly all year, but most especially at the Spring Keeneland meet where both set records for wins.  The crowd bet her down to 6/5, but she was next-to-last down the back stretch and her late rally (going just six furlongs) was belated, only 4th.  Long shots ruled again with the winner at 10/1, runner-up at 50/1, and the show horse at 20/1!  In both the third and fourth I passed.......my top selection was 4th a 9/5 in the former (behind a 5/1 winner) and my long shot in the latter was last at 19/1 behind the winner at 5/1.  As I watched on TVG the analysts were now commenting several times that we were nearly half way through the card without a single favorite winning.  This did not bode well for my betting selection in the 5th where I picked Chocolate Ride in a MSW going 1 1/8th miles.  He'd broken slowly but rallied to be 4th in his debut; today he was entered after posting abest of 84 bullet work.  He set the pace into the stretch, dueled to the last fifty yards and finally gave way to a 9/2 winner.  In the 6th I again had a price play, Lonesome Street who'd won a Grade 2 here in 2012 with a top speed figure - also owned by the Ramseys, trained by Maker.  He made a bold move on the turn at 8/1, then was even through the lane as the paid $10 and the runner-up was a huge 14/1.  The 7th was a wide-open turf event that I had no clues or hunches on - the winner paid $30.60!  In the first of the two graded stakes today, the Grade 3 Phoenix my selection, Reload, was bet down from the program odds of 10/1 to 5/1, but he never was in it, eighth.  My fourth pick - I listed four for this race - had won this race last year and was 4/1 in the program.  He won at an overlaid 12-1!  Still no favorites in the winner's circle! 

This trend was NOT good for me as I was certain I'd have the favorite in the Grade 1 Alciabides - not only a BC Challenge race, but a two-turn race over the synthetic main track for two-year-old fillies.  Fourteen entered, and like I mentioned at the top, they were all from different tracks.....some stretch-out sprinters off dirt wins; some turf runners; some synthetic runners from both sprints and routes.....but none from here, and none having raced at this distance with the short run to the alternate finish line that Keeneland sets for their 8 1/2 furlong races.  This is important because it means it is VERY difficult to close from far back; and nearly always it is hard to win on the lead.  Well, my pick should not have that problem with her running style.  My pick was My Conquistadory.  She had debuted in a one mile turf event at Woodbine.  That - going long on the grass - is difficult for any first time starter.  But get this, for her debut her connections entered her in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes - a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" race!  And even more amazing......the Summer is for two-year-old COLTS!  In spite of all these obstacles, My Conquistadory stalked the leaders and drew off by daylight UNDER A HAND RIDE!  Impressive!  So today she was back with fillies, but she was going from turf to synthetic and going from a one-turn mile to a two-turn route.  Still, I thought her ability to sit just behind the leaders was key......and her works over the Woodbine main track, also synthetic seemed to indicate she could handle the surface switch.  Finally, my handicapping angle was to think like the owners........why would I send a graded stakes winning juvenile, who already had a Breeders' Cup berth locked up, into a Grade 1, main track event - much less ship all the way from Toronto to Lexington, Kentucky unless......I thought she was THAT GOOD!  So, she was the bet, and worthy of a double bet - no more with all these "new" things to overcome as well as a full field of fourteen who's connections thought THEY were good enough to win. 

As I watched the pre-race analysis of the card before race 1, TVG host and analyst Todd Schrupp narrated a short feature on the one horse to bet against, and the one horse to bet on at Keeneland today.  My Conquistadory was his horse to bet, but what caught my attention was when he said, on national television over the replay of her stretch run in the Summer....."I tweeted today, and now I will say it to our national viewing audience, My Conquistadory is the best juvenile filly in North America!"  Now, I know Schrupp from way back when he was the Calder paddock analyst and he's always looking for the price play.  So to not only make this national declaration on social media and on-air, about a favorite really made an impact on me.  So I doubled my double investment.....she's now "Prime Time" for me!  So, you can see how the lack of favorite winners was a concern.  She was drawn in post 7, a good draw.......no chance of being squeezed on the rail or having to use speed to hold position, and not too wide as to lose ground into the turn. 

The gates opened and the 4-5-6 horses bore out while the 8-9-10 all broke slightly inward.  My Conquistadory was immediately 13th of 14 before they hit the first turn.  NOT GOOD!  Not only is this not her running style, but closing from the back is NOT what we want.  Still, the rider patiently took her to the rail to save ground through the turn.  He began to move up as they ran down the backstretch.....BLOCKED and CHECKED!  That about ends every chance I thought; but he got her in gear again by sliding off the rail and was splitting horses approaching the far turn.....CHECKED again!  Wow :(  Still, she started to accelerate again, but once again the seam closed and he had to jerk the reins and stop on her halfway through the turn!  Then an opening appeared.  My Conquistadory accelerated and was quickly 6th, 5th, and then 4th and ready to swing wide out of the turn and into the lane.  But the outside horse seemed to drift so he shot the gap between horses and within 20 yards she had collared the leader; one more shift into high gear and she was GONE in spite of the short run to the wire, UNDER A HAND RIDE and drawing off as you please.  HUGELY IMPRESSIVE!  If she takes to "real dirt" (the Santa Anita surface) she is one of the best bets on the BC weekend! 

Best of all, she'd left the gate as the 6/5 favorite.....with my $20 investment I got back $44 and for the day despite going 1-for-5, I had collected $44 on my $45 investment! I'll take the $1 loss on a day when NINE of ten races were won up long shots ($16 winner in the finale, my top non-betting pick ran second....as the favorite!).  Tomorrow is a card FULL of super stakes races, including the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile featuring Wise Dan and the Grade 2 TCA Stakes for older fillies & mares featuring Groupie Doll!

Watch the video!