Saturday October 12

It's An ALL - STAKES Day of Racing!

It looked to be a full day of college football and a good day to focus on just the stakes races across the country.  So after buying the "Reader's Digest" version of the Daily Racing Form - as my friend Vinny calls it, I only turned to the stakes races being run.  After I'd gone through the cards for Gulfstream, Keeneland, Calder, Belmont, Santa Anita, and found a stakes at Hawthorne, I turned to the full pp's and looked for any stand outs.  I found two more allowance races and my card was complete with eleven selections.  I posted my selections on Facebook and listed two of them as my "BEST BETS" of the day...

Kim had gone to the beach for the afternoon to paddle-board with her friend Elaine, so I drove out to Calder to make my bets with "real money" - by cashing my ticket on Kitten Kaboodle from Wednesday's Jessamine Stakes.

The first race on my sheet was the third at Calder.  As you can read in my analysis, this guy just laid over the field.  I knew the price would be short, but hey.....a win is a win!  And after Wednesday's long string of second place finishes I was looking for as many wins as I could find today!  :)  I went to my favorite teller, with whom I like to make a list of late bets (he is very efficient and have NEVER known him to make an error in punching the track, race or horse number I give him).  When I got half way through the list and came to the one race at Gulfstream I wanted, he told me that today Calder was not taking bets on Gulfstream.  Really?  I asked.....wow, it's sad I remarked.  He agreed.  And then when I was making my final selection of the day at Santa Anita he told me that Calder was not taking bets on Santa Anita.  Double wow.....all the Stronach owned tracks were off the board.  I asked if Gulfstream was not taking Calder's signal either, he nodded with a sad smile.  So, I walked out to the rail and with five minutes to post Black Karma sat at 1/5.  Fair odds all things considered.  I thought probably at the last minute he might tick up to 2/5, which would be stealing.  But instead as they were all in the gate he flashed down to a paltry 1-9.  He shot right to the lead, but was pressed to the turn. Midway through the turn I could see the other horse's rider was really working while Edgar Zayas was just sitting frozen in the saddle.....I'm home free!  He walked with it.

I looked it up, over the summer's list of bets - nearly 850 races - NONE of them went off, ZERO at odds this low.  Not unbeaten Black Cavier (who paid $2.30); not Horse of the Year Wise Dan who paid $2.80, $3.20, and $2.80; none of them paid this low as a third-time starter at Calder in a nw2L allowance that paid $2.10 to win.  That is an amazing number!  For my $15 investment I got back $15.75! 

I headed home to watch the football games and the races on HRTV & TVG.  The next race on the schedule was the first of five stakes races on the Festival of the Sun card at Calder. It was the Tropical Park Derby and I reluctantly went against the Ken & Sarah Ramsey owned favorite, but this guy had a single win in his $75K maiden claimer on his resume, and had not only missed in graded stakes, but also allowance races.  My pick was 8/1 and looked to have a real shot in mid-stretch but finished third.  In the 7th, the first of the two "big races" - purse worth over $300K - I thought Scandalous Act was a standout.  The only question, as I mentioned in my analysis was her ability to go two turns.  Into the first turn she was in front but was dueling all the way.  This went on to the far turn with the field closing in.  But as they turned for home jockey Eduardo Nunez asked for her best and she rocketed away from the field, winning easy as she pleased!  The payoff of $3.00 was MUCH nicer than that of Black Karma! 

Right away, the next race on the schedule was the colt's version of the "big race," the In Reality division of the Florida Stallion Stakes.  The short-priced favorite had won twice for me, the latest on Travers Day in the Affirmed Division going seven furlongs.  I had not gone "all in" that day because the connections of Best Plan Yet had said they thought they might get him in that spot, but were "certain" they would reverse the outcome when the racing went two turns.  I wasn't ready to go "all in" on him today, and felt I might get 5/2 or better because not only was My Brown Eyed Guy going to be the favorite, but his trainer/owner connections were the same as those of Scandalous Act; I thought a lot of fans would see this as a "meant-to-be" sweep.  Best Plan Yet was 5/2 as they went to the post; then 2/1 as they loaded, but dropped to 9/5 as they turned down the back side.  I thought he'd sit off the pace and rally into the stretch.  But a seam opened up as they approached the far turn and the rider could wait no more.  Jeffrey Sanchez shot through the seam and the race was over!  Cashed again for my third win in four picks! 

The first of the two featured turf races at Belmont was up next. The question facing me was if Boisterous, who'd won a Grade 1 race three back, over the top for the season, or were his last three losses - all close finishes against much better than today's rivals - due to less than ideal circumstances.  He figured to get the kind of turf he liked, some cut in the ground with recent rain in New York, but I wasn't supremely confident.  I doubled the bet.  He made a belated run and hung through the stretch, fading to 6th.  The next two spots came up nearly simultaneously. 

The 9th at Calder & the 7th at Gulfstream.  At Calder it was the Frances Genter going 7.5 furlongs on the turf and I liked Dreaming of Sophia who had paired Beyers in back to back stakes wins.  She made a good run at 3/5, but couldn't get to the winner, 3rd.  My lone selection at Gulfstream was in a 2x allowance on the turf.  Blameshifter looked MUCH the best IF he ran back to his August races.  I had made the bet via TwinSpires on my phone since Calder wouldn't take the live bet.  Ironic that the online wagering platform, which is owned by Churchill Downs like Calder is, WOULD take my money.  I read later that the problem was that (a) Calder had sent out Gulfstream's signal to a casino just blocks from Gulfstream, which contractually they'd agreed not to do.  To their credit Calder withdrew the signal and apologized.  But to me, the more serious problem was that Calder owed Gulfstream $5 million for bets made on their simulcasts.  That's not right.  Calder's response was that Gulfstream was supposed to wait ten days to withdraw their signal if there was a problem. I find it hard to believe that Gulfstream had been owed the money one day and withdrawn the signal the next.  Just another example of why Calder is not long for this world as a racing facility.  Blameshifter stalked the pace, moved off the rail as they turned for home and it was all over.  I win AGAIN! 

Then it was time for my other best of the day, and in this one I thought I had a chance for a nice price.  In the Grade 3 Athenia at Belmont there looked to be no speed in the race.  I'd seen Pianist run this winter at Gulfstream, and she was quick.  Add in she goes out for Chad Brown, I thought she would be LONG gone.  The gates opened and quickly a longshot sprinted to the lead.  I guess I won't be the lone speed.....I quickly opened the Racing Form and was comforted that she had raced from off the pace, but I thought her big advantage in this spot against some quality closers, was her ability to control the race.  As they hit the far turn it was the longshot and Pianist on an easy lead, but more importantly they were four or five clear of the rest of the field.  Pianist made her move and was suddenly four in front at the 1/8th pole.  But here came the closers.  I said "wire....wire...WIRE...." but she was never threatened.  My FIFTH win on the day.  And the best news yet, she went off at 5/2!  The prices came up and she had been just one tick off 3/1, so the $7.90 payoff would yield nearly $80 for me!  I am a big winner on the day regardless of how the final two races come out!  WHOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO! 

It was over 90 minutes to the next race.  The football games had been pretty much what I'd hoped for.  In the two early games Texas had beaten Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry in Dallas and Georgia went down to Missouri......love it when Georgia and Tennessee lose, as they are big rivals to my Florida Gators!  But he Gators had no offensive punch and they went down to defeat at LSU.  As they were approaching the gate at Hawthorne the best game of the day was finishing - Penn State upset unbeaten Michigan in front of their home fans in FOUR overtimes, when THREE times they were "certain" to lose, only to block one field goal and have the Wolverine kicker miss the other two! 

At the Chicago track we were on the grass in the Carey Memorial.  I did not have the past performances, but had read the analysis in a feature article in the Daily Racing Form.  The Pizza Man, who'd won nine of twelve turf races was listed at 4/1 in the program, and that was absurd.  I thought he had a great chance to win, especially since he was 2-for-2 here at Hawthorne.  He was chasing a loose-on-the-lead front runner (who's rider was my former student Rosemary Hoemeister, Jr.).  But in the final strides he was able to get his nose down on the wire first.  He had left the gate as the favorite, when the program favorite had scratched out of the race.  But he was a fair 3/2 in the final betting.  So the $5.00 payoff meant my sixth win would add $25 to my winnings on the day!  In the last of the eleven races on my selection sheet I ran third at Santa Anita in the California Distaff Handicap going down the hill on the turf course.  It was the first time I'd seen Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens NOT give his mount a good ride.  He was on the rail and instead of getting free for run as they came down the hill, he stuck to the rail and got shut off.  By the time he worked outside and rallied it was too late, 3rd. 

So for the day I'd won six of eleven - an amazing 55% winning percentage.  And for the second consecutive day of racing, I'd had a nice profit for the day!  AND.....if you'd been with me on Facebook and bet the two "best" bets, you'd have won them both and collected nearly $80 in profit!