Saturday October 5

Down Go The Grade 1 Winners!

When I look back on today, and frankly when most handicappers look back on today, the one thing most will remember is how today was the day when MANY Grade 1 winners were putting in their final prep for the 2013 Breeders' Cup and instead of building momentum, they were sent down to defeat at very short odds.  And with those multiple defeats, so went my profit for the day.  Still, I had a fairly good day of handicapping (10-for-37, 28%) and cashed on six stakes races.  Here's how the day played out........

In the opener at Belmont I thought Todd Pletcher's Atlantic Dream had a solid chance to rebound at a big price.  In his last he was the 2/1 favorite over many of these, and today he was listed at 6/1 in the program.  He left the gate at 6/1 and made a bold move spinning out of the turn, only to be narrowly beaten in third.  But I bounced right back with three straight victories.  The first was at Keeneland in their opener.  Trainer Michael Maker had entered Ken & Sarah Ramsey's All Alex, and named Julian Leparoux to ride.  The connections don't get much better than that and he finished strongly in the final 16th to produce my first winner.  Ten minutes later trainer Kirk Ziadie sent out Dreaming of Bella for Team Calabrese, with Edgar Zayas on board.  And you DO NOT get any better than that locally as she wired the 7 furlong distance as the favorite.  I topped off my trifecta of winners wen I tabbed Madison Street in Calder's third race as my "Bet of the Day" at the Miami Gardens oval.  I thought she was quickest of the group, and especially at 5 1/2 furlongs would have little trouble leading them on a merry chase.  Right to the front and LONG GONE! 

After cashing on three of my first four picks, I was anticipating another 40% plus day and looking forward to the multiple "best" bets I had later on the stakes-laden cards around the country.  Over the next sixty minutes I could not find the winner's circle however.  At Gulfstream Team Calabrese and Kirk Ziadie could not seal the early double.  Possible Dreams was Mike Welsch of the DRF "best" of the day, so upped the wager.  At Belmont I ran third with Chasintheblues who was VERY close on the wire at a nice 3/1.  Fourth at Calder when Flyin Trey could not repeat his last effort as the 3/2 favorite.  At Keeneland Greyfall was 3rd at 5/2 for Bill Mott and I ended the string of losses with another second, this time at Indiana Downs.  I typically don't bet Indiana Downs, but today was their Indiana Derby Day card which featured six stakes races.  Interesting story......at about 20 minutes before post time I went front-to-back on both floors at Calder searching for a monitor with the Indiana Downs races.  Not finding one I asked at information if they were taking wagers on Indiana Downs, and the answer was "No."  Luckily through the wonder of technology I was able to wager AND watch the races on my iPhone! 

Finally I was cashed when at Calder I doubled the investment on Loveyouallthetime.  Another interesting side story......I debated about which track to go to today, Calder or Gulfstream.  I had multiple selections on both programs, and finally settled on Calder because their simulcast television set-up is better.  I get there and find that while at Gulfstream the racing conditions are "Fast and Firm," at Calder it is "Fast and OFF the turf!"  It's near 90 degrees and we haven't had rain since Thursday afternoon, but that's how Calder management has traditionally been......it rained this week, we're off the turf.  SOOO many times I've lost picks due to these crazy decisions (if it is legitimate then what's wrong with the course that it can't take water like Gulfstream, minutes away?).  At any rate I had a turf pick and a "Main Track Only" selection.  Loveyouallthetime had the perfect draw, post 12, to stalk the frontrunner and blow by in the lane.  The race played out EXACTLY as I'd seen it!  WHOOO HOOOO.  cashed for $20.  Fifteen minutes later I scored my first win at Monmouth - I only had two picks on the Jersey Shore today - when juvenile filly Flay Mignon rocketed out of the gate and was clear throughout under a confident hand ride in their feature, the Jersey Juvenile Stakes!  It was my Monmouth "Best" of the day!

They had no sooner crossed the finish line that I was at Indiana Downs watching Rivertown Belle draw clear late in the Hoosier Breeders' Sophomore Stakes on my iPhone....got back $30! 

Off this second 3-race win streak I stood at 6-for-11 on the day, and still felt like the best was yet to come.  As Coach Corso says on ESPN's College Game Day, "Not so fast my friend!"  The wheels were about to come off the proverbial wagon.......I was clear into the lane in a Belmont turf sprint with Hothersal, only to be caught late at 2/1.  Then the first of multiple stakes races came up at Keeneland.  I had picked Great Mills, against my gut feeling, but he simply had the best numbers and class, in spite of struggling to win in these kinds of spots.  He tossed in the towel on the turn and was 10th as the 5/2 second choice.  My third choice, Havelock, won and paid over $17.....sigh.  I missed at Gulfstream in a turf maiden claimer, yeah - ON the turf - wow.  Then the first of the "BIG" bets.....Keeneland's 56th was the Grade 2 TCA Oaks.  I wondered about Groupie Doll "bouncing" off the track record win at Presque Isles, but I thought they were building momentum for the Breeders' Cup.  When I read that her trainer was exuding confidence I went "all in" on her.  She was a little closer to the pace than usual and when asked for her late kick, it wasn't there.  She lost to my third choice who paid $10.  Wow x 2!  The Quality Road Stakes at Gulfstream saw me suffer another loss when Where's Sterling could not make up any ground on the loose-on-the-lead front runner, and crossed the wire 4th as the 1/1 favorite.  I closed out this skid with a dull 5th b Say (at 5/2) in the Grade 1 First Lady over the Keeneland turf.  But it was very hard to watch her race because it was a DRIVING rainstorm.  So bad in fact that management took the rest of the races off the turf - including the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf! 

I began what I hoped would be a late rally & recovery in the first stakes race at Santa Anita.  It was the Swingtime Stakes, going a mile over the turf.  There wasn't a single horse in the field that wanted to lead.  But #1-Miss Pippa had shown some early speed many races back.  With "rider-for-hire" Mike Smith, and the rail draw, I thought she'd go right to the front and steal it.  But Smith had other ideas.  He took her to the BACK of the field - where I was sure he had little chance to close into an average at best pace.  But as they turned for home he split horses and was up in time!  That's why he's a Hall of Fame rider, and I'm not! 

Better to be lucky than right when it comes to why you pick the winner!  :)  But my luck completely ran out on the day over the next 75 minutes.  Fifth in the Ta Wee at Indiana with Street of Gold at 2/1; 6th at Belmont in the Grade 1 Jamaica for sophomores.  I had War Dancer who stalked the pace at a juicy 6/1, and was making what I thought was a winning move in mid-stretch when he was completely shut-off by a wall of horses and he finished a close 6th while still full of run :(  At Monmouth Major Score was 1-9 for most of the betting before finally floating up to 7/5 at post time.  No where to be found, 5th.  In the Mari Hulman George at Indiana Downs my bad racing luck continued when Don't Tell Sophia was boxed in through the entire final turn.  When she got free she was absolutely flying, but had lost nearly six lengths on the eventual winner.  I am certain she was the best horse, but no money to prove it.  I was second AGAIN in the Grade 1 Frizette for two-year-old fillies at Belmont going a one-turn mile when the 3/5 favorite Sweet Reason - who'd been ultra impressive in two wins at Saratoga - basically did the splits coming out of the gate and quickly spotted the field about ten lengths.  The rider was patient, let her settle, then made a big run through the lane.....a close, but non-threating runner-up check for her.  Then in the most disappointing finish of the day, it was the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland scheduled for the turf. It was very interesting to me that ten horses were in the field with Horse of the Year Wise Dan. He was coming off a scintillating score in a course record time in the Woodbine Mile.  When the race was moved to the main track I was even more surprised when all ten stayed in the race.  I considered briefly changing my bet, but then remembered his career best 117 Beyer when he annexed the Grade 3 Fayette over this very main track in the spring of 2012.  His five-for-six synthetic record was easily best of anyone in today's lineup.  Despite being in post 10 he was quickly only two-or-three wide down the back stretch and well I hand behind front-runner Silver Max.  He was right on that one's hip as they went through the turn, and then Jockey John Velazquez shook the reins.  Over the last 18 months that had always resulted in an instantaneous and electrifying acceleration as he blew by the leaders.  But today, no response!  Velazquez worked him through the lane and while it's true that Silver Max did not lengthen his lead, and at one point I still thought Wise Dan would gut it out, he could not get by.......second, again.  The worthless tickets continued when Rail Trip was a distant 9th in the Schaefer at Indiana, and then multiple Grade 1 turf miler Obviously - who is CLEARLY the best and fastest of the milers out west - rated nicely behind cheap speed, opened up two into the lane then had no response as not one, not two, but THREE horses ran by him to the wire.  WOW. 

FINALLY I got back on the board, and the nice price was of some consolation to me.......it was the Grade 1 Champagne for two-year-old colts at Belmont, going a one-turn mile.  Earlier in the day a guy had shown me his winning exacta at Belmont and he said, "who's your best at Belmont today?"  I pointed out that I really liked Havana in the Champagne.  I explained he would NOT be the favorite, and while I had a lot of respect for the other two top contenders, I pointed out how much Havana resembled champion Uncle Mo from 2010.  Like that one, Havana had broken his maiden with a 102 Beyer going 5 1/2 furlongs, then waited for the one-mile Champagne.  He won that and then was much the best in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to secure 2-year-old of the year in 2010.  Well, as they were loading into the gate the same guy was there, and he said, "this is your horse."  I agreed, and then he said he had looked at the other two and could not go by the favorite.  Well, Havana had been 7/1 when I bet my $20.  He was 6/1 with five minutes to post time and I was counting my nearly $150!  Then 4/1 as they neared the gate - ok, I'll take $100.  Then 7/2 as they loaded and 3/1 as they were let go.  Instead of gunning to the front jockey Irad Ortiz patiently stalked the long-shot leader through the far turn.  He saved all the ground and as heads began to turn for home he accelerated and quickly Havana was four in front!  At the furlong marker he looked long gone and the favorite was not making any progress.  But Honor Code, the third of the three I had pointed out to my "friend" was rallying EIGHT wide.  He had won last time out coming from an amazing twenty-two lengths behind at the top of the stretch, and he was gobbling up ground with massive strides.  I looked like I was safely home, but it was close on the wire, but without a doubt the winner! 

Havana paid $7.20 so I collected nearly $75! I cashed my ticket, ten made my final set of bets downstairs and walked outside to film the recap video.  When I got home and watched the replays (at halftime of the mighty Florida Gators win over Arkansas on prime-time ESPN2!) I was disappointed when Ballistic Sue was a fade-to-last 9th at Keeneland; Magic Daddy was a nowhere to be found 10th at Santa Anita; and most disappointed when my "BEST" of the day at Indiana Downs, Fiftyshadesofhay - the Grade 1 Black Eyed Susan winner, and most recently runner-up to Princess of Sylmar who exited that race to beat reigning queen of North American racing Royal Delta - ran third as the overwhelming 2/5 favorite.  She took a clear lead into the stretch but had nothing left to finish the race.  ANOTHER huge disappointment.  Lost the finale at Belmont on the turf when With Exultation was a late-running third.  I almost had a big chance to get a lot of my money back when horse-for-the-course Mr. Bossy Pants was long gone into the lane at Santa Anita.  He loves downhill turf course, having posted SIX wins at that distance, but as he ran through the lane he was running two steps to the outside for every one step to the wire.  3rd at a bit 6/1 and I'd doubled the bet.....that was at least $70 missed :( 

I finally had another winner when Bob Baffert's Power Broker splashed his way to the front late in the Grade 2 Indiana Derby and held on by two.  He was a generous 8/5, so I collected nearly $30. 

Two more huge disappointments followed at Santa Anita.  Executiveprivilege, a multiple Grade 1 winner as a two-year-old was returning in a listed stakes, the L.A. Woman, and her closing style looked to really be set up with multiple speed types.  Evenly at 2/1 for fourth.  Then my co-best of the day in an allowance spot, Key Vista finished dead last  While it's true he was coming off a huge 102 win in his maiden score, and could easily regress today.  He looked EASILY quickest to the front and he had fired a best-of-51 bullet work in a sizzling :58.2 for five furlongs.  Add in Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens and I thought - as did nearly everyone else as he left the gate at 2/5 - he was tons the best.  He dueled to the far turn and simply stopped.  But, the day ended on a positive note.  The final big prep for the Breeders' Cup Sprint came here in the 9th at Santa Anita, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint.  I thought it was pretty obvious that Points Offthebench, the last-out winner of the Grade 1 Bing Crosby, was the most likely winner.  Partly because I anticipated him being a short price I only doubled the bet.  When I cranked up the replay video I saw he was not only every bit of the 4/1 program odds, but had floated up to an amazing 9/2!  Hall of Fame Mike Smith topped off a huge day by gliding him to the front-runner in mid-stretch and the coaxing him home under a hand ride.  T

he prices came up.....a big $11.20 for a $2 wager, so I'm cashing out for nearly $60!  He could be the Breeders' Cup Sprint favorite off these two very impressive Grade 1 wins!  So, as I said at the beginning, TEN big wins, and the last race big score left me feeling "OK" about the day, but I won't soon forget these Grade 1 winners who all went down to defeat for me today:

Breeders' Cup Champion Groupie Doll
European Group 1 winner Say
Horse-of-the-Year Wise Dan
Multiple Grade 1 winner Obviously

Grade 1 Black Eyed Susan winner Fiftyshadesofhay

Multiple Grade 1 winner Executiveprivilege

 

Check out the video highlights of the day and the entire three-day weekend here: