Opening Day At Keeneland!
Two years ago today on Opening Day at Keeneland I was in Lexington for the event. I really like playing the Keeneland Spring and Fall meets as it's such a unique surface and the meet itself is such a "boutique" meet with horses coming from all over, all different surfaces. It is a real handicapping challenge! Their biggest weekend in the fall is always Opening Weekend when there are three consecutive days of multiple graded stakes with most of them being "Win and You're In!" Breeders' Cup Challenge races. Today was no exception.
Of the ten races on the card, I had selections in five of them, and only two of them warranted an added money play. In fact originally my "Best" of the day was just a double bet......but as you'll soon see, that changed! I handicapped the card as I normally do when I have a handicapping project, listing my top three selections. In the opener my top choice, even though I passed the race, was on the lead in deep stretch, only to be caught by a 19-1 longshot. One of my two double investments was in the second where I liked Christiesborntorun in a claiming event. She was plunging in class and being sent out first off the claim by trainer Michael Maker for owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey. This team has been deadly all year, but most especially at the Spring Keeneland meet where both set records for wins. The crowd bet her down to 6/5, but she was next-to-last down the back stretch and her late rally (going just six furlongs) was belated, only 4th. Long shots ruled again with the winner at 10/1, runner-up at 50/1, and the show horse at 20/1! In both the third and fourth I passed.......my top selection was 4th a 9/5 in the former (behind a 5/1 winner) and my long shot in the latter was last at 19/1 behind the winner at 5/1. As I watched on TVG the analysts were now commenting several times that we were nearly half way through the card without a single favorite winning. This did not bode well for my betting selection in the 5th where I picked Chocolate Ride in a MSW going 1 1/8th miles. He'd broken slowly but rallied to be 4th in his debut; today he was entered after posting abest of 84 bullet work. He set the pace into the stretch, dueled to the last fifty yards and finally gave way to a 9/2 winner. In the 6th I again had a price play, Lonesome Street who'd won a Grade 2 here in 2012 with a top speed figure - also owned by the Ramseys, trained by Maker. He made a bold move on the turn at 8/1, then was even through the lane as the paid $10 and the runner-up was a huge 14/1. The 7th was a wide-open turf event that I had no clues or hunches on - the winner paid $30.60! In the first of the two graded stakes today, the Grade 3 Phoenix my selection, Reload, was bet down from the program odds of 10/1 to 5/1, but he never was in it, eighth. My fourth pick - I listed four for this race - had won this race last year and was 4/1 in the program. He won at an overlaid 12-1! Still no favorites in the winner's circle!
This trend was NOT good for me as I was certain I'd have the favorite in the Grade 1 Alciabides - not only a BC Challenge race, but a two-turn race over the synthetic main track for two-year-old fillies. Fourteen entered, and like I mentioned at the top, they were all from different tracks.....some stretch-out sprinters off dirt wins; some turf runners; some synthetic runners from both sprints and routes.....but none from here, and none having raced at this distance with the short run to the alternate finish line that Keeneland sets for their 8 1/2 furlong races. This is important because it means it is VERY difficult to close from far back; and nearly always it is hard to win on the lead. Well, my pick should not have that problem with her running style. My pick was My Conquistadory. She had debuted in a one mile turf event at Woodbine. That - going long on the grass - is difficult for any first time starter. But get this, for her debut her connections entered her in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes - a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" race! And even more amazing......the Summer is for two-year-old COLTS! In spite of all these obstacles, My Conquistadory stalked the leaders and drew off by daylight UNDER A HAND RIDE! Impressive! So today she was back with fillies, but she was going from turf to synthetic and going from a one-turn mile to a two-turn route. Still, I thought her ability to sit just behind the leaders was key......and her works over the Woodbine main track, also synthetic seemed to indicate she could handle the surface switch. Finally, my handicapping angle was to think like the owners........why would I send a graded stakes winning juvenile, who already had a Breeders' Cup berth locked up, into a Grade 1, main track event - much less ship all the way from Toronto to Lexington, Kentucky unless......I thought she was THAT GOOD! So, she was the bet, and worthy of a double bet - no more with all these "new" things to overcome as well as a full field of fourteen who's connections thought THEY were good enough to win.
As I watched the pre-race analysis of the card before race 1, TVG host and analyst Todd Schrupp narrated a short feature on the one horse to bet against, and the one horse to bet on at Keeneland today. My Conquistadory was his horse to bet, but what caught my attention was when he said, on national television over the replay of her stretch run in the Summer....."I tweeted today, and now I will say it to our national viewing audience, My Conquistadory is the best juvenile filly in North America!" Now, I know Schrupp from way back when he was the Calder paddock analyst and he's always looking for the price play. So to not only make this national declaration on social media and on-air, about a favorite really made an impact on me. So I doubled my double investment.....she's now "Prime Time" for me! So, you can see how the lack of favorite winners was a concern. She was drawn in post 7, a good draw.......no chance of being squeezed on the rail or having to use speed to hold position, and not too wide as to lose ground into the turn.
The gates opened and the 4-5-6 horses bore out while the 8-9-10 all broke slightly inward. My Conquistadory was immediately 13th of 14 before they hit the first turn. NOT GOOD! Not only is this not her running style, but closing from the back is NOT what we want. Still, the rider patiently took her to the rail to save ground through the turn. He began to move up as they ran down the backstretch.....BLOCKED and CHECKED! That about ends every chance I thought; but he got her in gear again by sliding off the rail and was splitting horses approaching the far turn.....CHECKED again! Wow :( Still, she started to accelerate again, but once again the seam closed and he had to jerk the reins and stop on her halfway through the turn! Then an opening appeared. My Conquistadory accelerated and was quickly 6th, 5th, and then 4th and ready to swing wide out of the turn and into the lane. But the outside horse seemed to drift so he shot the gap between horses and within 20 yards she had collared the leader; one more shift into high gear and she was GONE in spite of the short run to the wire, UNDER A HAND RIDE and drawing off as you please. HUGELY IMPRESSIVE! If she takes to "real dirt" (the Santa Anita surface) she is one of the best bets on the BC weekend!
Best of all, she'd left the gate as the 6/5 favorite.....with my $20 investment I got back $44 and for the day despite going 1-for-5, I had collected $44 on my $45 investment! I'll take the $1 loss on a day when NINE of ten races were won up long shots ($16 winner in the finale, my top non-betting pick ran second....as the favorite!). Tomorrow is a card FULL of super stakes races, including the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile featuring Wise Dan and the Grade 2 TCA Stakes for older fillies & mares featuring Groupie Doll!
Watch the video!
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