It's SUPER SATURDAY!
Today I was in Ohio visiting my family. The started bright and early as we headed out to southwest Cincinnati - about a 2 hour drive from my Mom's Columbus home - to see my two nephews square off in a college football contest as Mount St. Joseph College hosted Bluffton College. Before the game we tailgate with my brother and his wife, posed for a "brothers photo" with our niece and then headed into the stadium to watch the boys play.
It was a gorgeous afternoon for college football with the temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s and just a hint of color in the fall leaves. Mount St. Joseph was clearly the better team and the older of my nephew, Eric - pictured on the left - got a lot of playing time for the home team Lions who won 52-28. Younger Ryan, just a freshman - pictured at right - did not get in (though I thought he should have considering the score). We got to spend about a half hour with them after the game before heading back to Columbus.
It was a little after 7 pm when we got back to Columbus, and I headed to the computer to watch the replays from Belmont's "Super Saturday" card. There were six graded stakes that were all Breeders' Cup "Win And You're In!" Challenge races. I originally made betting selections in all six, but after watching the DRF Preview videos I restructured my bets and passed on the Grade 1 Flower Bowl. My "Bet of the Day" was in the first race on my selection sheet, the Grade 1 Beldame which featured the showdown between two-time Breeders' Cup champion Royal Delta against three-year-old champion Princess of Sylmar. On the one hand I thought that this race WAS the Breeders' Cup to Princess of Sylmar who's connections had said this was her final race of the year; but on the other hand she'd never seen or beaten anyone of Royal Delta's talent. But as they broke out of the gate Royal Delta broke a step slowly and a longshot gunned to the lead. Not that she cannot rate off a leader, but it seemed she was uncomfortable tracking and Princess of Sylmar was right behind her. As the came out of the turn Royal Delta glided to the lead, but she did not lengthen her stride like she usually does and Princess of Sylmar collared her and ran right by her without much resistance from the champion. Wow.....not the start to the day of racing I'd anticipated! But I came right back in the Grade 1 Kelso when Graydar returned off a long layoff to wire the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap.
This should set him up nicely for a Breeders' Cup race. I personally think the Dirt Mile would be a better spot than taking on the BC Classic. Next up was the Grade 1 Vosburgh. I was not a big fan of any of the east-coast sprinters. I thought it was a great spot for a "fresh face" and there was a shipper from California that fit the bill. Private Zone had shown high quality speed in all of his last few races. The problem was he surrendered late in his last three graded sprints to Smiling Tiger three back, to Sahara Sky two back, and to Jimmy Creed one back. He'd come off the shelf to wire a listed stakes at Del Mar, but to me this looked like a bridge to today's race. And more importantly I didn't think that he'd face any runner with the quality of those three sprinters. Right to the front he went, and in deep stretch he was collared by the talented, but inconsistent Justin Phillip. But, inside the final 16th he surged back on the rail and WON!
Best of all, (1) he went off at a very generous 7/2 and paid $9.20; and (2) when I restructured my bets and dropped my pick in the Flower Bowl I'd doubled the investment here! WHOOOO HOOOOO! Collected nearly $50! Next up was the aforementioned Flower Bowl and my top pick won as the favorite! In the 9th at Belmont I went against Little Mike - didn't I write multiple times that I would NOT do this at any time this year? Well, owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey had not one but two Grade 1 winners in here - Big Blue Kitten who'd just won the Grade 1 Sword Dancer AND Right Solution who'd just won the Grade 1 Arlington Million. And just to be certain that Little Mike would not steal it, they entered Joe's Blazing Aaron - a confirmed front-runner - to set a fast pace and set the table for the two closers. In addition there were two others to the inside that had speed, AND Little Mike was on the outside. Add in his two races this summer were both really off, and I went against him. As the field headed to the first turn Little Mike was wide and in fifth. I was thinking how smart I was. Both my horses were reserved with the stable mate sailing along at a fast clip to set everything up. But when heads turned for home the first to rally was Little Mike! Big Blue Kitten was flying up the rail, but had to check at he furlong marker. Real Solution was flying on the outside. But he flattened out and Big Blue Kitten surged on the rail - PHOTO FINISH!
You have to know that Little Mike won, and paid $16.80. Wow, again? Now, what to do in the Breeders' Cup? In the featured Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup it looked Cross Traffic might wire the field, but I had thought he looked "distance limited" when he won the Grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga. I wasn't wild about any of them, but I thought the two three-year-olds did NOT look good; I thought Ron the Greek might be over the top and so by process of elimination I backed Flat Out who'd won 5 of 6 starts here. Well, Cross Traffic walked out of the gate and never ran; the three year olds did not produce; but Flat Out was a dull third. The winner, Ron the Greek who freaked as he had in the Sunshine Millions at Gulfstream when I was there, and he scored the upset at a huge 21/1! So as I went into Mom's living room to watch the Ohio State Buckeyes play on national TV I was 2-for-5 at Belmont and even (thanks to Private Zone) on the bottom line.
At the end of the first quarter I was able to get back online and watch the replays from Santa Anita's Breeders' Cup Preview day. I could not find anyone to back in their two juvenile races, but I did have pick in the three big races for older. In the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive going a mile and a quarter on the turf it came down to Marketing Mix and Tiz Flirtatious. The former had edged the latter the last time they met, but then had run very dully in the Grade 1 Beverly D on Arlington Million Day while the latter had been ultra-impressive in winning the Grade 2 John Mabee. I decided I might get a better price on Marketing Mix and IF she returned to form she'd win again. It was a great race, and a photo finish......yes, I was second by the narrowest of margins. But, in the Grade 1 Zenyatta I was back in the winner's circle. There weren't any superstars, and there looked to be at least three that wanted the front end. But with Hall of Fame rider Gary Stephens on the three-year-old Beholder, who was breaking inside all the other speed, I thought she might run a big race ad steal it. I was spot on and she was very impressive winning in hand! The crowd had also supported her chances and she went off at 8/5 - which was a good price on her, but I thought in her first start against older I'd get a better price.
In the Grade 1 Awesome Again, the local prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic, the top handicap runner in the country Game On Dude was passing the race. I backed Mucho Macho Man, who had Gary Stephens as well. He was an east coast based horse, and has been an also ran for two years now. His trainer is a "good feel" story, but he just has not won races. Typical was his career best run in the BC Classic here last fall, but he couldn't get past upset winner Fort Larned. But, I thought Stephens might make the difference, and the fact that he'd been sent out west to prep a couple of weeks ago. Friday night I'd watched the DRF preview videos and both Mike Beer and Dan Illman said nearly the same that I felt about Mucho Macho Man and how he'd be hard to support at a short price. I had been intrigued by Bob Baffert's lightly raced Take Control and both the guys thought he had a chance at a price. I switched my bet (and cut back on the investment). Well, Mucho Macho Man WAS the favorite and Take Control was a very nice 7/1. But Mucho Macho Man won in a scintillating effort, just blowing away the field. Sigh....... had it, and let it get away.
The last two races of the day were at Churchill for their "Downs After Dark" program. The first was the Homecoming Classic. A newly created race for this first-time September meet that had been drawn up to maybe lure any big handicap horses who did not want to tackle the "big boys" in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Well, one such horse was Fort Larned, the BC Classic defending champ. He'd been a disappointment in three starts this year with his only big effort coming here, under the lights of "Downs After Dark-White Party" when we'd been on track.
I thought he looked TONS the best even if he wasn't himself, and he was the lone speed. I knew I wouldn't make any money, but like many races in the fall, he was an obvious winner and would help "pad my stats" by adding another winner to the list. The only thing that did NOT go according to the way I'd seen the race was that he didn't draw off with authority. While jockey Brian Hernandez might have had him under wraps to "save" him for the Classic it was a bit disconcerting that two prices horses were gaining quickly on him through the final furlong. But in the end he was a clear winner and I had my fourth win of the day.
I had one race left, and as is so often the case, my profit for the day rested on the chances of General Election in the Grade 3 Jefferson Cup. When I looked at the race it just seemed so obvious. There were at least three if not five horses who wanted the lead. There was one legitimate closer, General Election. Duh. And the fact that he'd won the Grade 3 American Derby at Arlington this summer illustrated he had the class to score. As Mike Beer said in the DRF video, "......is it just so easy, so obvious, that he's the winner?......" Then he went on to say he'd bet against him to get a "better price." And that in a nutshell sums up my handicapping principles. I pick the winner and let the "value players" shoot against themselves. Apparently a lot of handicappers felt this way because instead of being a legitimate 6/5 General Election was allowed to leave the gate at a huge 2/1. It was close, but he had all the momentum rallying down the middle of the course and scored!
WHOOO HOOO! The $6.20 payoff led to my collecting $31.00 and made me a winner on the day. I'd won with five of ten selections - an impressive 50% and a clear profit for the night in spite of missing with my "Bet of the Day" on Royal Delta. Add in wins by Mt. St. Joseph, the Florida Gators, and my son Jeff's Houston Baptist Huskies and it was a delightful way to end the month!
For the month I had one of the BEST months I've had in a long, long time!
112 Selections / 45 WINS (40.1%) - ROI $2.56 for every $2 bet
Here's to hoping the successful fall campaign continues all the way through the Breeders' Cup. I'm already looking forward to next weekend where it will be "Fallstars Weekend" at Keeneland!
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