Saturday September 28

It's SUPER SATURDAY!

Today I was in Ohio visiting my family.  The started bright and early as we headed out to southwest Cincinnati - about a 2 hour drive from my Mom's Columbus home - to see my two nephews square off in a college football contest as Mount St. Joseph College hosted Bluffton College.  Before the game we tailgate with my brother and his wife, posed for a "brothers photo" with our niece and then headed into the stadium to watch the boys play. 

It was a gorgeous afternoon for college football with the temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s and just a hint of color in the fall leaves.  Mount St. Joseph was clearly the better team and the older of my nephew, Eric - pictured on the left - got a lot of playing time for the home team Lions who won 52-28.  Younger Ryan, just a freshman - pictured at right - did not get in (though I thought he should have considering the score).  We got to spend about a half hour with them after the game before heading back to Columbus. 

It was a little after 7 pm when we got back to Columbus, and I headed to the computer to watch the replays from Belmont's "Super Saturday" card.  There were six graded stakes that were all Breeders' Cup "Win And You're In!" Challenge races.  I originally made betting selections in all six, but after watching the DRF Preview videos I restructured my bets and passed on the Grade 1 Flower Bowl.  My "Bet of the Day" was in the first race on my selection sheet, the Grade 1 Beldame which featured the showdown between two-time Breeders' Cup champion Royal Delta against three-year-old champion Princess of Sylmar.  On the one hand I thought that this race WAS the Breeders' Cup to Princess of Sylmar who's connections had said this was her final race of the year; but on the other hand she'd never seen or beaten anyone of Royal Delta's talent.  But as they broke out of the gate Royal Delta broke a step slowly and a longshot gunned to the lead.  Not that she cannot rate off a leader, but it seemed she was uncomfortable tracking and Princess of Sylmar was right behind her.  As the came out of the turn Royal Delta glided to the lead, but she did not lengthen her stride like she usually does and Princess of Sylmar collared her and ran right by her without much resistance from the champion.  Wow.....not the start to the day of racing I'd anticipated!  But I came right back in the Grade 1 Kelso when Graydar returned off a long layoff to wire the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap. 

This should set him up nicely for a Breeders' Cup race.  I personally think the Dirt Mile would be a better spot than taking on the BC Classic.  Next up was the Grade 1 Vosburgh.  I was not a big fan of any of the east-coast sprinters.  I thought it was a great spot for a "fresh face" and there was a shipper from California that fit the bill.  Private Zone had shown high quality speed in all of his last few races.  The problem was he surrendered late in his last three graded sprints to Smiling Tiger three back, to Sahara Sky two back, and to Jimmy Creed one back.  He'd come off the shelf to wire a listed stakes at Del Mar, but to me this looked like a bridge to today's race.  And more importantly I didn't think that he'd face any runner with the quality of those three sprinters.  Right to the front he went, and in deep stretch he was collared by the talented, but inconsistent Justin Phillip.  But, inside the final 16th he surged back on the rail and WON! 

Best of all, (1) he went off at a very generous 7/2 and paid $9.20; and (2) when I restructured my bets and dropped my pick in the Flower Bowl I'd doubled the investment here!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Collected nearly $50!  Next up was the aforementioned Flower Bowl and my top pick won as the favorite!  In the 9th at Belmont I went against Little Mike - didn't I write multiple times that I would NOT do this at any time this year?  Well, owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey had not one but two Grade 1 winners in here - Big Blue Kitten who'd just won the Grade 1 Sword Dancer AND Right Solution who'd just won the Grade 1 Arlington Million.  And just to be certain that Little Mike would not steal it, they entered Joe's Blazing Aaron - a confirmed front-runner - to set a fast pace and set the table for the two closers.  In addition there were two others to the inside that had speed, AND Little Mike was on the outside.  Add in his two races this summer were both really off, and I went against him.  As the field headed to the first turn Little Mike was wide and in fifth.  I was thinking how smart I was.  Both my horses were reserved with the stable mate sailing along at a fast clip to set everything up.  But when heads turned for home the first to rally was Little Mike!  Big Blue Kitten was flying up the rail, but had to check at he furlong marker.  Real Solution was flying on the outside. But he flattened out and Big Blue Kitten surged on the rail - PHOTO FINISH! 

You have to know that Little Mike won, and paid $16.80.  Wow, again?  Now, what to do in the Breeders' Cup?  In the featured Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup it looked Cross Traffic might wire the field, but I had thought he looked "distance limited" when he won the Grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga.  I wasn't wild about any of them, but I thought the two three-year-olds did NOT look good; I thought Ron the Greek might be over the top and so by process of elimination I backed Flat Out who'd won 5 of 6 starts here.  Well, Cross Traffic walked out of the gate and never ran; the three year olds did not produce; but Flat Out was a dull third.  The winner, Ron the Greek who freaked as he had in the Sunshine Millions at Gulfstream when I was there, and he scored the upset at a huge 21/1!  So as I went into Mom's living room to watch the Ohio State Buckeyes play on national TV I was 2-for-5 at Belmont and even (thanks to Private Zone) on the bottom line. 

At the end of the first quarter I was able to get back online and watch the replays from Santa Anita's Breeders' Cup Preview day.  I could not find anyone to back in their two juvenile races, but I did have pick in the three big races for older.  In the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive going a mile and a quarter on the turf it came down to Marketing Mix and Tiz Flirtatious.  The former had edged the latter the last time they met, but then had run very dully in the Grade 1 Beverly D on Arlington Million Day while the latter had been ultra-impressive in winning the Grade 2 John Mabee.  I decided I might get a better price on Marketing Mix and IF she returned to form she'd win again. It was a great race, and a photo finish......yes, I was second by the narrowest of margins.  But, in the Grade 1 Zenyatta I was back in the winner's circle.  There weren't any superstars, and there looked to be at least three that wanted the front end.  But with Hall of Fame rider Gary Stephens on the three-year-old Beholder, who was breaking inside all the other speed, I thought she might run a big race ad steal it.  I was spot on and she was very impressive winning in hand!  The crowd had also supported her chances and she went off at 8/5 - which was a good price on her, but I thought in her first start against older I'd get a better price. 

In the Grade 1 Awesome Again, the local prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic, the top handicap runner in the country Game On Dude was passing the race.  I backed Mucho Macho Man, who had Gary Stephens as well.  He was an east coast based horse, and has been an also ran for two years now.  His trainer is a "good feel" story, but he just has not won races.  Typical was his career best run in the BC Classic here last fall, but he couldn't get past upset winner Fort Larned.  But, I thought Stephens might make the difference, and the fact that he'd been sent out west to prep a couple of weeks ago.  Friday night I'd watched the DRF preview videos and both Mike Beer and Dan Illman said nearly the same that I felt about Mucho Macho Man and how he'd be hard to support at a short price.  I had been intrigued by Bob Baffert's lightly raced Take Control and both the guys thought he had a chance at a price.  I switched my bet (and cut back on the investment).  Well, Mucho Macho Man WAS the favorite and Take Control was a very nice 7/1.  But Mucho Macho Man won in a scintillating effort, just blowing away the field.  Sigh....... had it, and let it get away. 

The last two races of the day were at Churchill for their "Downs After Dark" program.  The first was the Homecoming Classic.  A newly created race for this first-time September meet that had been drawn up to maybe lure any big handicap horses who did not want to tackle the "big boys" in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  Well, one such horse was Fort Larned, the BC Classic defending champ.  He'd been a disappointment in three starts this year with his only big effort coming here, under the lights of "Downs After Dark-White Party" when we'd been on track. 

I thought he looked TONS the best even if he wasn't himself, and he was the lone speed.  I knew I wouldn't make any money, but like many races in the fall, he was an obvious winner and would help "pad my stats" by adding another winner to the list.  The only thing that did NOT go according to the way I'd seen the race was that he didn't draw off with authority.  While jockey Brian Hernandez might have had him under wraps to "save" him for the Classic it was a bit disconcerting that two prices horses were gaining quickly on him through the final furlong.  But in the end he was a clear winner and I had my fourth win of the day. 

I had one race left, and as is so often the case, my profit for the day rested on the chances of General Election in the Grade 3 Jefferson Cup.  When I looked at the race it just seemed so obvious.  There were at least three if not five horses who wanted the lead.  There was one legitimate closer, General Election.  Duh.  And the fact that he'd won the Grade 3 American Derby at Arlington this summer illustrated he had the class to score.  As Mike Beer said in the DRF video, "......is it just so easy, so obvious, that he's the winner?......"  Then he went on to say he'd bet against him to get a "better price."  And that in a nutshell sums up my handicapping principles.  I pick the winner and let the "value players" shoot against themselves.  Apparently a lot of handicappers felt this way because instead of being a legitimate 6/5 General Election was allowed to leave the gate at a huge 2/1.  It was close, but he had all the momentum rallying down the middle of the course and scored!  

WHOOO HOOO!  The $6.20 payoff led to my collecting $31.00 and made me a winner on the day.  I'd won with five of ten selections - an impressive 50% and a clear profit for the night in spite of missing with my "Bet of the Day" on Royal Delta.  Add in wins by Mt. St. Joseph, the Florida Gators, and my son Jeff's Houston Baptist Huskies and it was a delightful way to end the month! 

For the month I had one of the BEST months I've had in a long, long time! 

112 Selections / 45 WINS (40.1%) - ROI $2.56 for every $2 bet

Here's to hoping the successful fall campaign continues all the way through the Breeders' Cup.  I'm already looking forward to next weekend where it will be "Fallstars Weekend" at Keeneland!

Wednesday September 25

Super Saturday Is Coming!

The Reaction To "The Dress!"

I am so excited.....(a) to be going to visit my family in Ohio, (b) for Super Saturday / Breeders' Cup Preview Day on Saturday, and (c) the great reaction of my Facebook friends to my posting about the surprise I gave Kim last Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday September 21



Pennsylvania Derby Day

What a G - R - E - A - T Day!

Just consider these stats.......

My Parx Selections:  8 / 3 - 1 - 2   Profit:  $46.00

My Facebook Selctions:  7 / 5 - 0 - 1   Profit:  $140.00

Overall:  45  17 - 4 - 7   Profit:  $150.75

 

It was a great day to be at the races for sure!  Lots of stories, so let's get right to it!  As I said on the web page, it was a most unusual day, not even considering the racing results.  I just don't go to the races on college football Saturdays.  The rare exception is if my Florida Gators are not playing, or are playing an opponent that won't provide much competition.  I never go when they play a big SEC game, much less a game against an arch rival.  But on this particular Saturday they played mid-afternoon against their arch-rivals Tennessee!  But, when I looked at entries and stakes races for the weekend, the Saturday slate of races was far superior to the Sunday lineup.  So I decided to DVR the Gator game and handicap.  I started on Wednesday by handicapping the full Parx card, and posting Voki animated video analysis of the four stakes races.  One of the best trips of my retirement was last September's adventure to Philadelphia for the Pennsylvania Derby, and I guess I was hoping to recreate a little of that.  Then I saw that Laurel was running a stakes filled card so Thursday I got their past performances and handicapped their card.  By the time I was done I had selections at Parx, Laurel, Calder, Gulfstream, Belmont, Churchill, and Arlington.  I wanted to go to Calder because I feel their days are numbered (and it's a closer drive), but I hesitated because with rain on Thursday I knew they would come off the turf, while Gulfstream would not.  But in the end I had enough picks on track to go to Calder, and THAT turned out to be a good choice!

 

The day opened at an early 12:25 with the first at Parx.  My pick was Nathan Ridge, a past veteran of the Calder racing scene, but now he was stabled in New Jersey.  His trainer, Jorge Navarro was winning 47% at Parx and the horse was a 40-time....yes FORTY....finisher in the exacta from 83 starts.  And he was a 10x winner at the distance.  He stalked the pace and drew off handily to win!  Off to a winning start.  I doubled my bet at Churchill on Two Steppin' Tango  where she was the only winner at the one-turn mile distance, and a 10x winner overall.  She went off a fair 2/1 but was a distant third.  The opener at Belmont saw King Henry dropped dramatically in price, but was a distant ninth.  Wow.  But I got my first win at Gulfstream win Pinafra was TONS the best as the favorite.  Here's a good example of handicapping a bad race with a good angle.  Pinafara had a poor overall record of 4-for-48, ouch!  But here was the key.  He was a miserable 1-for-33 at all other distances and 3-for-15 at today's distance.  Obviously he was well-meant today, and he drew off with authority at 7/5.  I was second at 8/5 with a double investment on the Jersey Shore with PJ's Superego and then won my second race in as many selections at Parx when 2-year-old maiden Kid Brown staggered home at 3/2.  But I knew the objection and INQUIRY sign would come up.  He'd ducked out, but seemingly didn't bother anyone, but in deep stretch he veered in and appeared to bother the third place runner.  But when I saw the head-on view I thought I had a chance to keep the win.  He did duck in, but he ducked from like the 4-path to the 2-path leaving a clear lane for the other horse to continue up the rail.  He and his jockey were simply intimidated.  But the stewards took him down :(  Before the decision was made I had to make my own decision locally when Money For Memories was my pick in the 3rd at Calder.  The race was slated for the turf, going a mile.  He'd made significant improvement stretching out from a dirt sprint to a turf route.  And today trainer Kirk Ziadie sent him back to the grass.  Ziadie, for Team Calabrese, was winning an amazing 80% win rate at Calder.  But today, with management moving the races off the turf, in spite of the dry weather, sigh....., I couldn't decide about sticking with the pick.  But in the end, I figured if a trainer winning 4-out-of-every-5 races felt he should run, who was I to go against him.  Stuck with my double investment and he was an easy winner!

 

Less than ten minutes later I had my first selection on the Laurel card, and it was a stakes race, the Laurel Futurity going 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  I liked Yes I'm Lucky who had already won three of four with two stakes wins.  He had run second in a Grade 3 on the dirt last out so the return to the grass and the drop from graded company looked to make him tough today.  He wired the field easily!  WHOOO HOOOO!   I thought I was ready to rolll, but over the next hour I lost five in a row including two double investments and two triple investments!  In the Arlington opener I thought Cardiac Arrest would steal it on the front end, but he never made the lead.  Sunnysider was my pick at Belmont in a Maiden Special turf spot.  I wrote I was concerned about trainer H. Allen Jerkens having an 0-for-32 MSW record, but the horse looked best and he had top rider Javier Castellano on board....4th at 3/2.  Iwillneversaynever looked much the best at Gulfstreamfor Team Calabrese.  Trainer Kirk Ziadie was winning 47% in Hallandale and 35% with turnback runners.  Distant 5th as the 9/5 favorite.  Wash Park was everyone's top pick at Churchill and he went off as the 8/5 favorite.  He sat off the pace and was making what looked like a winning move just as they turned for home when he tripped over his own feet and tossed the rider.  Wow.....Shining Copper was an upset pick at 5/1 in a Parx allowance, but he was a non-threatening 6th. 

 

When I stepped up to the window off this streak, I had six races in quick succession, four of them being added money investments.  And when I reached into my bankroll to turn over the cash I was left with a few $1 bills, a single $5 bill, and a single $100 bill.  I thought to myself, "the money is running low, I (a) hope I have enough to last the day and (b) I need to cash some tickets in this sequence!"  I had a triple investment, my "best" at Calder with Notimetokil.  He was having a great 2013 season having run first or second in 11 of 12 starts.  But my concern was he only had two wins.  BUT....both those wins came in the last three starts.  He was sent off at odds-on and cantered home by double digit open lengths! 

 

At Belmont I thought the sprint was evenly matched but that Frazil would be a good price with a bullet work and dropping in class.  He was a fair 9/2 and I doubled the bet - 5th.  Grrrrrr.  But then it was time for another stakes race at Laurel, the Jameela Stakes.  It was another turf sprint going six furlongs.  Madame Giry was my pick.  She had ripped off five straight turf sprint wins, including a couple of stakes last fall.  But she was 0-for-3 in 2013 until her last when she won a $100K turf sprint stakes at Saratoga.  I thought this signaled a return to form, and with plenty of speed signed on here, I thought her closing style would play well.  When the field turned for home she was still far back and between horses.  But she swung out at the furlong mark with a full head of steam and inhaled the front runners.  She forged to the lead with 150 yards to go and appeared a certain winner, but the inside runner was not done......PHOTO finish!  I thought I'd held on, but I had to wait for the OFFICIAL sign......finally it was posted and I had my second stakes win in Maryland! 

 

The double investment returned nearly $20 to my pockets!  I missed at Gulfstream and at Monmouth.  Time for the 6th at Parx and both halves of the Jorge Navarro entry (remember he's the 47% winning trainer) would have been the favorite on their own merits.  With both running I wasn't surprised they were 1/9 with five minutes to post.  I planned to double the bet, but now I considered upping the ante. Then I considered my tenuous money situation and held back. The good news was the price floated up to a fair 1/2, the bad news was they ran 3rd and fifth!  Whew, glad I didn't step the bet up!  The sixth at Calder offered another Team Calabrese - Kirk Ziadie runner.  Fly South had been my pick last Sunday in a slightly tougher claiming race, but scratched for this spot.  I doubled the bet, but was mildly concerned when with five minutes to post he was the third choice on the board.  I looked at the other favorites and thought I had the right horse.  At post time his odds dropped and he was the favorite as they left the gate.  But it was a three-way pace battle all the way through the far turn. He finally cleared turning for home and I thought he'd draw off.  As I filmed from the rail he looked clear but here came a closer!  It was close, but I still had at least a half length lead to spare on the wire!  I'm 3-for-3 at Calder! 

 

I'm hanging in there with my money, but then lost another four in a row.....Poison Apple as the 1/2 favorite in an Arlington turf sprint, but was second.  So Outspoken looked to be long gone as the speed of a turf route at Belmont.....failed to get to the front, 7th.  The Best Glacier was running for top owner-trainer team of Michael Maker-Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  Fourth at 2/1 at Churchill.  And then in the Jersey Girl Stakes at Monmouth, Ima Jersey Girl (seemed destined to win this listed stakes wouldn't you think with that name?) was dead last as the 4/5 favorite.  The only good news from that selection as I had the minimum on her. 

 

The day turned over the next eight races.  I won at Belmont when I picked Request to take down this one-mile turf maiden special for 2-year-olds.  The field was made up of mostly juveniles who'd already lost, but Request was debuting for top young trainer Chad Brown with top rider Javier Castellano.  He was a $400K Keeneland purchase so somebody thought he had ability and Castellano was winning 32% for Brown.  He was wide on the turn for home and it was a three way stretch drive and officially a photo......but he was the winner on the wire! 

 

I ran 6th at Gulfstream in spite of Dreaming of Danny's double Beyer advantage and then was a good second at a solid 3/1 at Churchill with Caliparty.  At Monmouth it as an entry level allowance on the turf and I liked Can't Explain.  She'd run second in the Grade 3 Schylerville Stakes on Opening Day 2012 at Saratoga and had failed to show that kind of talent on the main track, so today she stretched out on the turf and dropped in class.  With top Jersey rider Joe Bravo - who excels especially on the grass - taking the mount I thought she looked solid.  And she blew them away at 4/5!  It was then time for the first of four stakes races at Parx on the Pennsylvania Derby card.  It was the Alphabet Soup on the turf.  I had won this race last September when my pick, Philly Ace had won a photo finish from Road Hog.  Well, Philly Ace was not in the field today but Road Hog was.  He'd seen far superior foes than today's rivals and had won the Maryland Million Turf last year. He was a fair 9/5 as the favorite and I tripled the bet.  He stalked the leaders and wore down the front runners inside the furlong marker, but then here came a late runner......it was close, but I was the winner! 

 

My triple investment netted me nearly $45 and I was starting on a big-time money roll!  Remember my first winner at Calder....off the turf and I stuck with her?  Well in the 8th at Calder my co-best of the day was with Determinato who looked to wire this turf sprint.  He looked tough on both surfaces, but his Beyers on the turf were far superior on the inner course, so I listed him as a "Turf Only" bet.  But when I made the sequence of bets, I stuck with him and tripled the bet.  With five minutes to post he, unlike Money Memories, was NOT the favorite, and he was NOT a Kirk Ziadie runner.  I looked a who was getting bet and who was still in the race.  I noted my comment, "Turf Only" and made the decision to cash in my ticket before the race.  He dropped down to 6/5 and favoritism as they got into the gate.  When he didn't make the front I was patting myself on the back for passing the race.  But he tracked the leader and wore him down to win!  I had gotten a refund on a ticket that would have returned $33 for my $15 bet.  Sigh....so it goes.  After running third at 3/1 over the Arlington turf when With A Twist didn't fire for former student Rosemary Hoemeister and Starship Truffles was a dull 3rd at 2/1 in Gulfstream's Musical Romance Stakes I had my best story/winner of the day.........

 

It was the 7th at Laurel, the Lady Baltimore Stakes going 8 1/2 furlongs on the grass.  As I mentioned earlier, I handicapped the Laurel card on Thursday.  That's significant because two days prior to race day the program odds were not available.  So I downloaded the Daily Racing Form's "graded entries."  For years I've had issues with their morning line.  For starters they ALWAYS list any "also eligibles" as the favorites.  Go figure.  And then more often than not their odds are WAY off on the legitimate contenders; so I take them with a grain of salt.  In this particular spot the field looks fairly evenly matched, but one filly draws my attention, Strathnaver.  This filly had limited success in Europe, then came to the US last fall.  She promptly won an entry level allowance and then the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes at the tough Keeneland Fall meet. She was coming out of the Grade 1 Beverly D on Arlington Million Day for this listed stakes.  I was familiar with this because in the Beverly D she was my top pick and left the gate as the 5/2 second choice.  She ran poorly, so perhaps she'd not be the favorite, but with a graded win, being lightly raced, and dropping out of a Grade 1 where she was well-bet you knew she'd be one of he top choices.  But the DRF listed her at 30/1!  Really?  I even wrote in my comments that this was never going to happen.  Fast forward to Saturday afternoon.  I'd had an issue at Calder with Laurel already.  When I won the second, the Laurel Futurity, the race was official and I'd seen the payoffs but the results "weren't in he system" and I couldn't cash my ticket about ten minutes afterwards.  Interestng.  They were going in the gate for the third at Laurel, still couldn't cash. They were heading to post for the fourth, still "not in the system!"  But finally I got the money.  OK, so now it's the 7th and I make my bet with a sequence of three or four other selections.  I look up at the big screens in the simulcast area and the two big screens that had been showing Laurel had now been switched to west coast tracks.  I went around the corner to a small, old TV mounted in the wall, but it too was now broadcasting the Southern California Barrett's races.  I go into the simulcast center theatre - nope.  Beginning to panic, I walk all around the facility and finally find a small TV on the backside of the "other" simulcast are showing Laurel races.  The color is off and picture is not sharp, but it IS Laurel.  So I look up at the odds and I thought Strathnaver was #9, but the #9 on the odds board is 12/1!  I must have the wrong number, I think.  I don't have the past performances (remember I'd handicapped on Thursday, so they were digital on my laptop).  So I opened my phone and went to the entries for today.  The #9 flashed up to 13/1 as I opened the program.  Race 7 at Laurel, the Lady Baltimore Stakes......#9-Strathnaver is listed at 9/2 on the program.  I look up.....it IS the 7th race, my ticket says the 7th at Laurel.  I have the #9 on my ticket, and now she's 12/1 as they approach the gate!  Am I that far off?  I don't think so.  They break from the gate and five of them lead the pack around the far turn, but Strathnaver is sitting about four off the lead, saving ground in a good position, about where I thought she'd be.  My heart starts to pound as I realize I might have something here.  As the field moves around the far turn Strathnaver begins to accelerate, comes off the rail, and is clear four wide with a chance to run down the leader.  She begins to accelerate and I am standing by a very quiet handicapper who's intently watching.  I next to never say anything or do anything but watch.  But as Strathnaver begins gaining on the leader at the furlong marker I start pleading quietly out loud, "come on with the 9, come on 9......come on 9!"  In the shadow of the wire she puts her nose in front, but the favorite is flying to her outside....PHOTO FINISH!!!!!!!  If you'd asked me I would have said she won.  And even though the TV says "Photo Finish" the camera is following #9-Strathnaver around.  I turn to the other guy and remark, "she was 9/2 in the program, but went off at 12/1!"  He gives me a slight smile but little reaction.  I wait for what seems like an eternity before finally the "Unofficial Order" is listed -

1st place:  #9 - Strathnaver!  OH MY!  And at final odds of 12/1!

 

It goes official and the payout is $26.80 for a $2 bet.  Did I mention I had DOUBLED THE BET!  Ten dollars to win means I'll cash for $134.00!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!  I am going to have a winning day no matter what is my first thought!  It just adds to the "uniqueness" of the day as I count up and Strathnaver is now my 11th win!  I had just recently been considering how my handicapping was going......my first concern was that it seems I just can't have any "big winning" days where I cash for a lot of winners, like more than a dozen; and I was considering how long it's been since I had a real price play winner.  Now today, I've got both!  You can see my delight in my expression as I held my winning ticket....

 

I lost my next three, including a double and a triple investment, but frankly I was still floating on "Cloud 9" with my $134 winning ticket in my pocket.  WOW.  Oblahlah was 10th and last at Churchill - not having a good day under the Twin Spires - at 9/5; Partyallnightlong looked much the best in the NJ Breeders Handicap at Monmouth.  He was 4/5 and was a distant 7th.  And then Clearly Now was a late-running second in Parx's Grade 3 Gallant Bob sprint stakes.  I had picked him because last September I lost this race when a closer ran down my front runner, and I thought that would be the winning style today.  Sure enough it was and my pick was closing fast but not as fast as locally-based City of Weston, who I had looked at, but figured he didn't "class up."  He was a shocking 30-1!  It was now time for my "BEST of the Day" at Laurel.  It was the Laurel Dash going six furlongs on the turf.  14-time winner Ben's Cat figured to be odds-on and a near-certain winner.  But I read his connections were thinking of running him in the $350K DeFrancis Dash on the main track later.  His trainer publicly remarked that finishing second in this dirt sprint (and note that Ben's Cat had won with five of six dirt sprint tries) would earn more money than finishing first in the $100K Laurel Dash.  On Friday I read they were 80% sure they would run on the dirt, so I switched my selection Friday night and printed my selection sheet.  But Saturday morning I read that the connections reversed their course and were running on the turf.  When I read the quote, "to pass up the turf race is like seeing money laying on the ground and not picking it up" I thought, that's a bit bold and sounds really too confident. But still, I made Ben's Cat my prime-time "Bet of the Day" in Maryland.  The TV picture was really poor now, but part of that was because it was now raining pretty good there.  Unlike Calder where we were off the turf because it rained TWO DAYS AGO, here at Laurel where it was raining TODAY, we were still ON the turf.  Ben's Cat broke sharply from post 10 and got a good stalking spot.  Coming out of the turn a long-shot leader emerged and Ben's Cat made his move about five wide.  But as they ran through the lane, with Ben's Cat slowly wearing down the leader, the front runner was running two steps to the outside for every one step forward which forced Ben's Cat to do the same.  At the 16th pole I began to think that his connections had been too confident and he wasn't going to get there - especially as they looked like they would run into the OUTSIDE fence before they hit the wire! But in the final strides the remarkable Ben's Cat - who was a "Horse-for-the-Course" at Laurel with a local record of 6/5-1-0 - surged to the front!  He had been 1/9 until shortly before post time; then floated to fair 1/5.  When he went to 2/5 I was very happy.  But as they left the gate he was an inflated 3/5! 

 

He paid $3.20 and I cashed for $32.00 with my "BEST BET" ticket.  I ran a distant 6th at Belmont and then was 4th at 5/2 in Churchill's Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes.  In the next 45 minutes I went on my strongest run of the day...........

 

At Arlington it was a first-level allowance on the turf.  He's Dann Good looked like the horse to beat, coming from off the pace, and the crowd made him the 6/5 favorite.  As they turned for home he was sitting a perfect trip, but was trapped on the rail.  You could see the jockey was desperate to get off the fence, but was blocked in by not one but two runners to his outside.  A narrow opening appeared on the rail and He's Dann Good began to surge through.  Just in time he got to the front and WON!  My double investment resulted in a better than $20 payoff with my 13th winner of the day!  Less than five minutes later it was my "BET OF THE DAY" in the Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx.  This $1 million race had produced my "Best" last year and today I thought Close Hatches would not only be my "best" at Parx, but on the entire selection sheet.  She had shown how very talented she was when running at Gulfstream this winter and then when she easily dominated the Grade 1 Mother Goose, earning a 102 Beyer in April she looked like a top contender for 3-year-old filly of the year.  But she came down with an illness and missed the entire summer of racing.  So today she was coming off a five month break and going two turns at a new track.  Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott would be unlikely, I thought, to send her to a $1 million Grade 1 if she weren't razor sharp.  The fact that Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith - who seems to be a "gun for hire" flying all over the country every weekend to get just the best mounts - took the reins today AND that Close Hatches had fired a best of 75 bullet work for today both said she was on top of her game.  Sweet Lulu had won the Grade 1 Test on Travers Day (when I was there) with a gutsy wire-to-wire win going seven furlongs to extend her unbeaten streak.  Today she stretched out to 8 1/2 furlongs and would try to steal it.  I thought she was WAY overmatched by Close Hatches.  Smith had her tracking Lulu to the top of the lane and then blew by to win convincingly!  Best of all she was a "huge" 8/5 favorite when she should have been no better than 2/5.  My $30 win ticket was good for nearly $80! 

 

Less than ten minutes later it was time for my "BEST" at Belmont.  Their feature today was the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Handicap.  I had won with Dance to Bristol when she won her 6th in a row in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga, and then she'd won a nose photo over Book Review in the Grade 1 Ballerina when I was at Saratoga for her 7th in a row.  But today I thought those two gut-wrenching wins would take their toll on her.  I was looking for an alternative and there she was.  Last spring Cluster of Stars had run her record to 4-for-4 when she won the Grade 2 Ladies' Distaff at Aqueduct.  She'd been off since then, but not only did her works look good enough to get her fit for today, but she appeared to be the ONLY FRONT RUNNER in the field, and she was on the rail (despite wearing saddle cloth #2 because of an entry).  Add in that top NY jockey Javier Castellano was on board today and I thought she had a great chance to steal it.  I made my "Prime Time - $20" investment an looked at the board.....she was better than 3/1!  Right to the front and in hand through easy enough fractions.  But halfway through the turn Dance to Bristol glided up effortlessly.  I felt queasy when her regular rider was looking all around for competition as he came to near even turns with Cluster of Stars.  I thought, this isn't good.  But, she was about six off the rail and Castellano was hugging the fence.  I had the thought that if she could give a little spurt turning for home that this with the saving of ground would make us difficult to run down.  Just as I thought it, it happened.  As they straightened for home Cluster of Stars was quickly back in front by four AND UNDER A HAND RIDE.  You could tell that Dance to Bristol's rider now saw the danger......he was NOT going to inhale the front runner; he'd lost the momentum and he was in trouble.  He asked Dance for Bristol to run, but that was when Castellano gave Cluster of Stars her cue.  She accelerated away and won gong away in what track announcer, Hall of Famer Tom Durkin called a "dazzling display" to score.  The prices were posted at $8.20 for a $2 bet and I went to the window to cash my $82.00 ticket!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  I am having a VERY GOOD day indeed - my 16th winner! 

 

Before I cashed my tickets on these two "BEST BETS" I recorded my videos (the Close Hatches comments did not record, sigh....) and posed with my two winning tickets!

 

I still had another "Best Bet" to go, at Arlington!  Prior to that I had my another stakes play at Laurel,  In the Laurel Turf Cup I liked Lake Drop.  He went off at 7/2 but was a non-threatening 7th.  Then it was the Arlington race, the Illinois Owners' Stakes.  It was a one mile event on the turf.  There were several speed types so I was looking for a runner from off the pace.  The Pizza Man grabbed my attention.  Not only was he a strong finishing style runner, but he'd already won 7-of-11 turf starts and qualified as a "Horse-for-the-Course" with a local record of 7/4-1-1.  The crowd recognized his chances and he left the gate as the even money choice.  In a near identical trip as He's Dann Good's race earlier, the Pizza Man saved all the ground through the far turn and then could not find a way off the rail.  A seam looked to be opening just outside the front runner, but when he went for it, it quickly closed and he had to check slightly.  Then the rail opened and the rider dove inside.  It was inside the 16th pole, was there time?  As John G. Dooley called it, in his best dramatic stretch call voice, it was "a driving finish!" and the Pizza Man was up JUST in time!  As I had written in my analys, in such a clever way, the Pizza Man had "delivered!"

 

But first it was time for the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby.  Like last year where the Cotillion was my "BEST" and I had a minimum bet on the Derby, I had the same feelings.  Like last year I did NOT like the Travers winner (or runner-up who was also in the field) so I settled on California invader Fury Kapori.  I was encouraged that he was the upset pick of several national handicappers AND was still 6/1 at post time.  He stalked the leaders to the stretch, but came up empty as the Travers winner validated that big win by scoring with a rail-skimming ride.  When I cashed my Pizza Man ticket the gal I'd been betting with, whom I seem to frequently have conversations with, remarked, "You're cashing a LOT of tickets today!"  I told her I usually cash at a much higher rate in the fall, but even for the fall this was a most unusual day with SIXTEEN wins!  I made my last two bets and went to watch the final two races.  At Belmont in their finale I liked Powerful Instinct on the turf in an entry level allowance in spite of his woeful record of 1-for-21.....yikes!  Why would I pick him?  Because today he was making his first start for top trainer Chad Brown and Javier Castellano (32% jockey-trainer team) had taken the mount.  The crowd wasn't convinced and let him go at 3/1.  He walked with it, and I cashed for over $20 again!  My 17th score!  By the time I got to the Laurel monitor my pick in the DeFrancis Dash was nowhere to be found.....Sage Valley was 7th at 7/5.  I went back to cash my ticket and the gal said, "What's wrong?"  I smiled, shook my head and said, "Unbelievable, I won AGAIN!"  We both chuckled and I took my cash.  As I walked out I counted the money in my bank roll - over $475.00!  And a few hours earlier I'd been wondering if I had enough money!  LOL!  When I got home and looked over my results, even I was amazed.  But one last surprise was in store - I'd said on my video recap, after counting up my numbers that I won sixteen races and had a profit of over $143.  But I'd mis-counted....I had SEVENTEEN wins and a final profit total of $150.75!  And then I realized, I had SO MANY winners, I would need to make TWO highlight videos!  It was TRULY a great day!  Enjoy the videos :)

 



 

 

Friday September 20

He's Back!

Today I continued to pick my spots for my Fall Handicapping project, and found myself at Belmont Park for the featured $100K Aljamin Stakes. The race was a 6 1/2 furlong sprint race for 3-year-olds and upwards. But the draw to the race was the long-awaited return to the races of 2012 Juvenile of the Year, Shanghai Bobby. He was the undefeated Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner at Santa Anita last November, but ironically I'd never made him my selection in any of those victories. As soon as he crossed the wire in the Grade 1 Juvenile I said he would be the early Kentucky Derby favorite, but would NEVER win the race. His best races were destined, I felt to be at 8 1/2 furlongs or less. When I heard he was wintering at Gulfstream Park I thought he'd be a great bet in his initial start, but would be a solid "bet against" in the Florida Derby.
As it turned out I was right.....sort of. He made his seasonal debut in the one-turn mile, Grade 3 Holy Bull and set a track record as my top selection! The only problem was that Itsmyluckyday broke that track record - in the same race, beating Bobby by about a length and a half. When they pointed him to the Florida Derby I was at first against him, but then felt that he'd run well in this spot; and I particularly liked the fact that Rosie Napravnik, his regular rider, had given up multiple mounts on solid favorites throughout the Fair Grounds card on Florida Derby Day to ride him. This was even more significant when you consider that she was the leading rider at the Fair Grounds and on this day it was Louisiana Derby Day, so she was forfeiting a lot of great opportunities. He did not run well at Gulfstream and so I was 0-for-2 on him. it was discovered he had a broken pelvic bone after the Florida Derby and he was sent to the farm until he made his return today. I initially thought I'd play him, but then wasn't sure how ready he might be. Yesterday I read that trainer Todd Pletcher said if he ran well they were thinking of his next start in the Breeders' Cup! That sounds like a lot of confidence to me! Then I saw on HRTV on "Pursuit Of The Cup" that Pletcher commented Bobby wasn't typically a good morning workout horse, but he'd been training very sharply for today. When I read that he was also Dave Liftin's top selection, I was on board with a triple investment.
He tracked the pace-setter down the backstretch and through the turn. He looked to be ready to pounce, but through the first furlong of the Belmont stretch he made up no ground! But inside the final 16th he responded to jockey John Velazquez's urging and he drew off as simply the best horse! In the final five minutes of betting his floated up from 1-5, to 2-5 and then to a more-than-fair 1-2! Cashed for nearly $25! WHOOO HOOOO!

 

Sunday September 15

 

Woodbine Mile Day

Despite the rainy weather here at Gulfstream Park and in Chicago at Arlington Park, the turf was firm at Belmont and Woodbine where there were four turf stakes on my selection sheet.  I lost five race on my selection sheet that were rained off the turf at those two tracks, and then had an additional main track scratch at Calder and Churchill Downs leaving me with only 24 races on my selection sheet.  Much like last week the day started off slowly as I ran third at Belmont with a Todd Pletcher 2-year-old first time starter, Lexi Morgan at 7/2.  At Churchill Downs Fusa Code had won for $40K last spring and was down significantly in class today.  Sent off at 4/5 she dueled to the top of the lane and faded to fifth.  And at Woodbine I went against the favorite and settled on first-time starter Congo Road.  He was bet down from 6/1 to 7/2 and bounced right out of the gate to the lead. He stayed in front all the way to final yards, before being caught in the shadow of the wire to be second. 

My first win came on the Jersey Shore when Box Office scored as the odds-on favorite at 2/5.  He was plunging in class which normally would be a red flag.  But with top rider Paco Lopez taking the mount I thought his connections were looking to have the horse claimed AND take the winner's share of the purse.  As heads turned for home Box Office was third and didn't look like a 2/5 shot....but then he found another gear and drew clear late.  I missed on my next three when 3rd at Gulfstream (in what turned out to be my only on-track bet) and 2nd at Churchill where Don't Slip dueled four wide into the lane, but could not stay with the rallying winner.  Finally missed at Monmouth when Sweet Abandon ran evenly (5th) at 4/1 in spite of dropping into a maiden claimer after a run in MSW company. 

But then I scored on two of my next three.  At Arlington Park Balega was dropping from maiden claiming $25K to a $12.5K spot today after showing the way for seven furlongs of a one-turn mile heat.  The stretch to two-turns and 8 1/2 furlongs projected her to be loose on the lead.  Right to the front under a firm hold and she was never threatened!  WINNER!  I had doubled the bet and collected nearly $20.  At Belmont, Nineinthenine showed why he had not won in 50 weeks when he had no response through the lane, 4th as the 8/5 favorite.  But I won right back under the Twin Spires in Louisville when Steffi scored.  She was lightly raced and dropping out of MSW company.  She had missed by only 1 1/2 lengths at the $50K level, then moved up to the previously mentioned MSW class.  Back down for a tag today and she scored at a nice $7.60 payoff - cashed for nearly $20. 

I was 4th at 4/1 in the Grade 2 Canadian with La Tia at Woodbine and 2nd as the even money favorite in the Grade 3 Ontario with Todd Pletcher's Winning Cause.  In between I was 4th twice - at Belmont when Jupiter Moon could not stay with the leaders as the 6/5 favorite and at Churchill when Demure Halo was dueling to the stretch, but had no late finish at 2/1. 

My fourth winner came in the 7th at Churchill Downs on the turf.  My pick was Marine Patrol who had something none of the other fillies had - she had crossed the wire first in her debut going two-turns on the turf at Arlington.  Off a break she tried nine furlongs at Saratoga against what appeared a much stronger group where she showed little.  Today she was sent off as the 7/5 favorite but when they turned for home she was dead last and I thoughtI didn't have a real chance.  But she slipped outside runners and put the petal to the metal and BLEW by the field to win under wraps by daylight!  AWESOME!  Cashed for nearly $25!  After a 3rd at Monmouth and a 6th at Woodbine (as the 7/5 favorite - sigh) I collected my first stakes win. 

We were on the turf at Belmont Park for the John Hettinger Stakes.  When I handicapped the race on Saturday morning Effie Trinket was listed to run in the Grade 1 Garden City Stakes for 3-year-olds Saturday afternoon, and figured to be one of the pace players.  I wrote in my analysis if she went here it would be a much softer spot and she might just be THE controlling speed.  But (as I read afterwards) her trainer had given jockey Luis Saez instructions to ride from off the pace because speed was not holding.  She was under a firm hold all the way through the far turn, and was carried four wide.  In mid-stretch she seemed to be making a winning move, but a runner slipped through to take command.  Effie would not give up and wore her down in the shadow of the wire! 

I had thought she would be if not THE favorite, she'd be one of the short priced favorites.  But the crowd let her slip away at better than 7/2 and the payout posted on the tote board was a very generous $9.40.....my double investment led to a payout of nearly $50 for me!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Less than twenty minutes later it was time for the first of the two Grade 1 events from Woodbine.  Forte Dei Marmi was my top choice in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer, and I thought he was nearly as likely to win as was Wise Dan in the feature race later in the afternoon.  The distance over the firm turf was a mile and a half.  Forte Dei Marmi had earned Beyers of 96 and 98 in his last two, which were BOTH better than anything his rivals had earned in the career, making him a double-fig horse.  He stalked the pace through the far turn, well in hand, and glided to the front, still under a hand ride.  But with a furlong to go the closers had momentum and his rider had to ask for his best.  They kept gaining with every stride, but he would not let them past.  He scored in a gutsy performance.....my $30 win ticket resulted in nearly a double pay out when I cashed for $57......over $100 on my last two races returned to my pockets! 

 

Three straight losses with double investments on the line were disappointing.  Ideal Place was a generous 4/1 at Belmont but was never in it despite coming from the Chad Brown barn with top rider Javier Castellano on board;  Thunder Hole was 2/1 at Monmouth and sat the perfect trip just as I thought, but despite sizzling fractions to set up his finishing kick, he had nothing through the lane, 4th.  I made a good decision when I had made Gold Element a "prime time" pick at Churchill in a nw2x spot where he was the only runner in for the $62.5K tag because he'd already won this condition AND had a double-Beyer advantage. But when I checked out Jill Byrne's selections she had him as a luke-warm 3rd choice..... she is typically very accurate with her opinions; then when he was no better than third choice through the betting I decided to cut my investment in half.  He broke slowly, made a mild move on the turn, but then had little for the stretch run and was third. 

The co-feature was up next at Belmont, the Ashley T. Cole Stakes going nine furlongs over the firm inner turf.  I preferred Kharafa in what looked to be a competitive race.  Then I read Dave Liftin's comments......

I agreed.  He ran his best races when stalking and then finishing strongly, and with the move to Javier Castellano today I thought he'd have him in a perfect spot to win today, and notably the only time Castellano had been on board Kharafa had won handily.  But then I looked down through the past performances.... no one, NO ONE had EVER run on the lead.  It appeared to me with at least six of these capable of winning with their "A" game, it would be a rider's race.  No one is better on the turf than Castellano, and with the rail draw and no speed, I thought he'd have the others at his mercy with a front running ride.  I doubled down on him and the race unfolded exactly as I had seen it!  He went right to the front and was never threatened.  Not sure he really wants the nine furlongs of today's race as Lubash was running him down late, but he'd been let to run freely for too long and I had my third stakes win of the day! 

I cashed for nearly $30!  The final bet of day was my BET of the DAY - the Grade 1 Ricoh Woodbine Mile.  Wise Dan won with authority here with a career best turf Beyer of 110, so the course would not be a problem.  His last EIGHT SPEED FIGURES would take a career best Beyer by any of his rivals to even compete with Wise Dan.  He looked just heads and shoulders above these, and I invested $100 to win on Wise Dan.  I was CERTAIN he'd win, but as they broke out of the gate my heart was pounding.  Truly there was never a doubt.  Jockey John Velazquez had Wise Dan well in hand right behind dueling font runners to the far turn and when he slid outside and let him go Wise Dan exploded to the lead.  Velazquez looked back several times and no one was making up any ground, so he never asked Wise Dan for his best.  He just galloped to the wire and when the final time was posted it was a new course record!  AMAZING considering he as never asked to run hard! 

 

The payout of $2.50 was more than fair considering Wise Dan was TONS the best in here.  My $100 investment yielded a profit of $25.....I happily accepted it.  Wise Dan was my eighth win from only 24 selections - a very good 33% - and I profited AGAIN for the day.  Check out my highlight video of the day.....

 

 



Monday September 9

She's Back!

The end of the weekend's racing came in the $400,000 Grade 2 Presque Isle Masters.  It would be my "BEST Bet of the Weekend," but I was not nearly as confident as I had originally planned on being.  The horse I was supporting was one of my favorite runners, Groupie Doll.  On Kentucky Derby Day 2012, when I was in the stands, I saw her win the Grade 1 Humana Distaff in a dazzling, track-record setting performance.  She took the summer off and when she returned in the Grade 2 Masters at Presque Isle Downs I was all over her.  I was again her biggest supporter when she took the Grade 1 TCA Stakes at Keeneland in October and she was going to be one of my best bets on Breeders' Cup Weekend.  After much deliberation I made her the "BET of the DAY" on Breeders' Cup Saturday, and she delivered what many thought was the most brilliant performance of the weekend as she blew by the field, and me as I stood on the rail. 

Because she had started her 4-year-old season at Gulfstream last winter I was anxious to see her run here this winter.  But after getting started on her, the connections didn't like the way she was working and she was given some time off.  In mid-summer she started working again and it was announced she would make her five-year-old seasonal debut in the $400K Masters again on September 9.  Incidentally, when this was announced I scolded my wife Kim, who is from Erie and told her I would love to visit her family over the September weekend, but because she was working and not retired we couldn't go!  I enjoy going to Presque Isle, and I had last been there in July 2012 where I had a winning day (wow, look how much heavier I look!)

Fast forward to August......early in the month Groupie Doll's trainer Buff Bradley announced he'd changed plans and would now debut the mare in the Grade 3 Gardenia at Ellis Park, going a mile.  I was puzzled by this because she is a sprinter, and I cannot tell you how many times I've seen top quality stakes runners perform poorly when they are entered in a spot where they had NOT had targeted on their training schedule.  But, the connections pointed out she was working great; she'd won this race as a three-year-old; she run a career best effort last November after the Breeders' Cup in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile; and the trainer's father had spent decades at Ellis training, so to run here would have a lot of sentimental significance to them.  Add in the fact that the trainer's dad was not in the best of health and they were bringing him from over three hours away to the track and I felt good enough that they knew better than I did about how well she'd run.  She went off at 1/5 and I thought she'd be the easiest kind of winner over an obviously over-matched field of rivals.  The first problem was she broke poorly, but her jockey, Rajiv Maragh didn't rush her, and she settled nicely.  He kept her out of trouble and on the far turn she made her patented run and cruised right up to the leaders while four-wide.  As heads turned for home she looked just like she had at the Breeders' Cup, all the momentum and dead aim on the leaders and then.......she spun her wheels and could not get by either the winner or the second place runner!  Huge disappointment.  And the number she earned that day reflected the concern of many, including this handicapper........

Was she the same champion or had her poor early season training been a sign that as a five-year-old she had just gone over the top?  Tonight would be the acid test.  As the race got closer I kept looking for signs and/or quotes from the trainer that she was going to run great tonight.......or comments that they "hoped" she would run well.  But heading into this afternoon I had yet to read anything that led me to believe either way.  The DRF provided the past performances to the race for free so I downloaded them and analyzed them - this would be on my handicapping, and nothing else.  As I looked over he field and the past performances it because quickly apparent that the whole race and the bet came down to one "if-or" opinion.......If you believed that she was still the champion sprinter, and that she was either "short" for the Gardenia, or the mile was less than ideal for her then she was going to walk with this race......OR if you believed that her early works had been the tell-tale sign that she wasn't the same runner, and the Gardenia confirmed this, then she was going to go down to defeat at a very short price.  I did not believe she was over the top.  I blamed the Gardenia loss not on any one factor, but on the combination of events....it had been the "perfect storm" of bad things - a poor break, a slow pace, a wide trip, coming off a long layoff, going too far in distance, and probably taking the competition too lightly (not having her fully cranked up) had all led to her loss.  Tonight there would be no mistakes.  We'd see the real Groupie Doll.  The only concern I had as I looked over the past performances was the #6 horse, Purely Hot.  She OBVIOUSLY was not in the same class as Groupie Doll, but she was quick and would have first jump on the champion; more importantly she was a perfect SIX-for-SIX at Presque Isle Downs (and over synthetic surfaces), including five straight blow-out wins.  If Groupie Doll was anything less than her best, this in-form, horse-for-the-course could be the one to spring the upset.  So I made my decision....it was Groupie Doll to WIN for me.  The bet.....I wanted to go "all in" with a $50 bet because I thought maybe tonight I'd get the best price of her career on her.  And I had briefly considered going out to Gulfstream to cash my winning tickets and get the big bet ticket.  But I decided that regardless of the odds, she was not going to be a price that would lead to a big profit, so I just wanted to support her with a "prime time" investment.  I'd gone $20 to win on Departing, and I thought Groupie Doll was a better bet, so I landed on $25 to win.

As I watched the race on TVG (which were on track in Erie, that was pretty cool!) Groupie Doll was a miserly 1-9 on the board.  Really?  I thought this was really an underlay with all the evidence that perhaps she wasn't the same this year.  But, she floated up to 1/5 and that I thought was a fair price.  Then, with five minutes to post someone dropped a ton of money on her and she plummeted to 1-9 again as they approached the gate.  But as they were finishing loading she was back up to 1/5.  The gates flew open and she broke a little slowly.  I was at first concerned because instead of being four or five off the dueling leaders she was next-to-last and about ten off the lead.  Then the fractions were posted.....:21 and change and :44 and change.  W-A-Y too fast for these fillies and mares.  As the field approached the turn Groupie Doll began picking off rivals one at a time.  By mid-way on the turn she dead aim on the two dueling leaders and was about to take third from the #6 horse who had also begun to run in earnest.  Uh oh, the #6?  That's the one I'm afraid of.  I thought I'd sweep by, but Groupie Doll was floated five wide (at least) while Purely Hot (#6) cornered much better.  At the furlong marker Groupie Doll was wearing her down, but could she get there in time?  Purely Hot ran the race of her life, but in the final 16th Groupie Doll forged by, and if you watch the video below you will notice that Maragh was really not pushing her for her very best through the lane.  WINNNER! 

As the TVG analysts started to rehash the race the final time came up........last year she'd won this race in a final time of 1:16.1 - a very quick time for the 6 1/2 furlongs.  But tonight's finish had stopped the teletimer at 1:14.1 - A NEW TRACK RECORD!  So, for the weekend I finished an excellent 16 WINS from 29 selections - an amazing 55% win rate!

Groupie Doll is indeed back!  The Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint is going to be a great race!  Here's the video of the race!