Woodbine Mile Day
Despite the rainy weather here at Gulfstream Park and in Chicago at Arlington Park, the turf was firm at Belmont and Woodbine where there were four turf stakes on my selection sheet. I lost five race on my selection sheet that were rained off the turf at those two tracks, and then had an additional main track scratch at Calder and Churchill Downs leaving me with only 24 races on my selection sheet. Much like last week the day started off slowly as I ran third at Belmont with a Todd Pletcher 2-year-old first time starter, Lexi Morgan at 7/2. At Churchill Downs Fusa Code had won for $40K last spring and was down significantly in class today. Sent off at 4/5 she dueled to the top of the lane and faded to fifth. And at Woodbine I went against the favorite and settled on first-time starter Congo Road. He was bet down from 6/1 to 7/2 and bounced right out of the gate to the lead. He stayed in front all the way to final yards, before being caught in the shadow of the wire to be second.
My first win came on the Jersey Shore when Box Office scored as the odds-on favorite at 2/5. He was plunging in class which normally would be a red flag. But with top rider Paco Lopez taking the mount I thought his connections were looking to have the horse claimed AND take the winner's share of the purse. As heads turned for home Box Office was third and didn't look like a 2/5 shot....but then he found another gear and drew clear late. I missed on my next three when 3rd at Gulfstream (in what turned out to be my only on-track bet) and 2nd at Churchill where Don't Slip dueled four wide into the lane, but could not stay with the rallying winner. Finally missed at Monmouth when Sweet Abandon ran evenly (5th) at 4/1 in spite of dropping into a maiden claimer after a run in MSW company.
But then I scored on two of my next three. At Arlington Park Balega was dropping from maiden claiming $25K to a $12.5K spot today after showing the way for seven furlongs of a one-turn mile heat. The stretch to two-turns and 8 1/2 furlongs projected her to be loose on the lead. Right to the front under a firm hold and she was never threatened! WINNER! I had doubled the bet and collected nearly $20. At Belmont, Nineinthenine showed why he had not won in 50 weeks when he had no response through the lane, 4th as the 8/5 favorite. But I won right back under the Twin Spires in Louisville when Steffi scored. She was lightly raced and dropping out of MSW company. She had missed by only 1 1/2 lengths at the $50K level, then moved up to the previously mentioned MSW class. Back down for a tag today and she scored at a nice $7.60 payoff - cashed for nearly $20.
I was 4th at 4/1 in the Grade 2 Canadian with La Tia at Woodbine and 2nd as the even money favorite in the Grade 3 Ontario with Todd Pletcher's Winning Cause. In between I was 4th twice - at Belmont when Jupiter Moon could not stay with the leaders as the 6/5 favorite and at Churchill when Demure Halo was dueling to the stretch, but had no late finish at 2/1.
My fourth winner came in the 7th at Churchill Downs on the turf. My pick was Marine Patrol who had something none of the other fillies had - she had crossed the wire first in her debut going two-turns on the turf at Arlington. Off a break she tried nine furlongs at Saratoga against what appeared a much stronger group where she showed little. Today she was sent off as the 7/5 favorite but when they turned for home she was dead last and I thoughtI didn't have a real chance. But she slipped outside runners and put the petal to the metal and BLEW by the field to win under wraps by daylight! AWESOME! Cashed for nearly $25! After a 3rd at Monmouth and a 6th at Woodbine (as the 7/5 favorite - sigh) I collected my first stakes win.
We were on the turf at Belmont Park for the John Hettinger Stakes. When I handicapped the race on Saturday morning Effie Trinket was listed to run in the Grade 1 Garden City Stakes for 3-year-olds Saturday afternoon, and figured to be one of the pace players. I wrote in my analysis if she went here it would be a much softer spot and she might just be THE controlling speed. But (as I read afterwards) her trainer had given jockey Luis Saez instructions to ride from off the pace because speed was not holding. She was under a firm hold all the way through the far turn, and was carried four wide. In mid-stretch she seemed to be making a winning move, but a runner slipped through to take command. Effie would not give up and wore her down in the shadow of the wire!
I had thought she would be if not THE favorite, she'd be one of the short priced favorites. But the crowd let her slip away at better than 7/2 and the payout posted on the tote board was a very generous $9.40.....my double investment led to a payout of nearly $50 for me! WHOOOO HOOOOO! Less than twenty minutes later it was time for the first of the two Grade 1 events from Woodbine. Forte Dei Marmi was my top choice in the Grade 1 Northern Dancer, and I thought he was nearly as likely to win as was Wise Dan in the feature race later in the afternoon. The distance over the firm turf was a mile and a half. Forte Dei Marmi had earned Beyers of 96 and 98 in his last two, which were BOTH better than anything his rivals had earned in the career, making him a double-fig horse. He stalked the pace through the far turn, well in hand, and glided to the front, still under a hand ride. But with a furlong to go the closers had momentum and his rider had to ask for his best. They kept gaining with every stride, but he would not let them past. He scored in a gutsy performance.....my $30 win ticket resulted in nearly a double pay out when I cashed for $57......over $100 on my last two races returned to my pockets!
Three straight losses with double investments on the line were disappointing. Ideal Place was a generous 4/1 at Belmont but was never in it despite coming from the Chad Brown barn with top rider Javier Castellano on board; Thunder Hole was 2/1 at Monmouth and sat the perfect trip just as I thought, but despite sizzling fractions to set up his finishing kick, he had nothing through the lane, 4th. I made a good decision when I had made Gold Element a "prime time" pick at Churchill in a nw2x spot where he was the only runner in for the $62.5K tag because he'd already won this condition AND had a double-Beyer advantage. But when I checked out Jill Byrne's selections she had him as a luke-warm 3rd choice..... she is typically very accurate with her opinions; then when he was no better than third choice through the betting I decided to cut my investment in half. He broke slowly, made a mild move on the turn, but then had little for the stretch run and was third.
The co-feature was up next at Belmont, the Ashley T. Cole Stakes going nine furlongs over the firm inner turf. I preferred Kharafa in what looked to be a competitive race. Then I read Dave Liftin's comments......
I agreed. He ran his best races when stalking and then finishing strongly, and with the move to Javier Castellano today I thought he'd have him in a perfect spot to win today, and notably the only time Castellano had been on board Kharafa had won handily. But then I looked down through the past performances.... no one, NO ONE had EVER run on the lead. It appeared to me with at least six of these capable of winning with their "A" game, it would be a rider's race. No one is better on the turf than Castellano, and with the rail draw and no speed, I thought he'd have the others at his mercy with a front running ride. I doubled down on him and the race unfolded exactly as I had seen it! He went right to the front and was never threatened. Not sure he really wants the nine furlongs of today's race as Lubash was running him down late, but he'd been let to run freely for too long and I had my third stakes win of the day!
I cashed for nearly $30! The final bet of day was my BET of the DAY - the Grade 1 Ricoh Woodbine Mile. Wise Dan won with authority here with a career best turf Beyer of 110, so the course would not be a problem. His last EIGHT SPEED FIGURES would take a career best Beyer by any of his rivals to even compete with Wise Dan. He looked just heads and shoulders above these, and I invested $100 to win on Wise Dan. I was CERTAIN he'd win, but as they broke out of the gate my heart was pounding. Truly there was never a doubt. Jockey John Velazquez had Wise Dan well in hand right behind dueling font runners to the far turn and when he slid outside and let him go Wise Dan exploded to the lead. Velazquez looked back several times and no one was making up any ground, so he never asked Wise Dan for his best. He just galloped to the wire and when the final time was posted it was a new course record! AMAZING considering he as never asked to run hard!
The payout of $2.50 was more than fair considering Wise Dan was TONS the best in here. My $100 investment yielded a profit of $25.....I happily accepted it. Wise Dan was my eighth win from only 24 selections - a very good 33% - and I profited AGAIN for the day. Check out my highlight video of the day.....
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