Monday September 9

She's Back!

The end of the weekend's racing came in the $400,000 Grade 2 Presque Isle Masters.  It would be my "BEST Bet of the Weekend," but I was not nearly as confident as I had originally planned on being.  The horse I was supporting was one of my favorite runners, Groupie Doll.  On Kentucky Derby Day 2012, when I was in the stands, I saw her win the Grade 1 Humana Distaff in a dazzling, track-record setting performance.  She took the summer off and when she returned in the Grade 2 Masters at Presque Isle Downs I was all over her.  I was again her biggest supporter when she took the Grade 1 TCA Stakes at Keeneland in October and she was going to be one of my best bets on Breeders' Cup Weekend.  After much deliberation I made her the "BET of the DAY" on Breeders' Cup Saturday, and she delivered what many thought was the most brilliant performance of the weekend as she blew by the field, and me as I stood on the rail. 

Because she had started her 4-year-old season at Gulfstream last winter I was anxious to see her run here this winter.  But after getting started on her, the connections didn't like the way she was working and she was given some time off.  In mid-summer she started working again and it was announced she would make her five-year-old seasonal debut in the $400K Masters again on September 9.  Incidentally, when this was announced I scolded my wife Kim, who is from Erie and told her I would love to visit her family over the September weekend, but because she was working and not retired we couldn't go!  I enjoy going to Presque Isle, and I had last been there in July 2012 where I had a winning day (wow, look how much heavier I look!)

Fast forward to August......early in the month Groupie Doll's trainer Buff Bradley announced he'd changed plans and would now debut the mare in the Grade 3 Gardenia at Ellis Park, going a mile.  I was puzzled by this because she is a sprinter, and I cannot tell you how many times I've seen top quality stakes runners perform poorly when they are entered in a spot where they had NOT had targeted on their training schedule.  But, the connections pointed out she was working great; she'd won this race as a three-year-old; she run a career best effort last November after the Breeders' Cup in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile; and the trainer's father had spent decades at Ellis training, so to run here would have a lot of sentimental significance to them.  Add in the fact that the trainer's dad was not in the best of health and they were bringing him from over three hours away to the track and I felt good enough that they knew better than I did about how well she'd run.  She went off at 1/5 and I thought she'd be the easiest kind of winner over an obviously over-matched field of rivals.  The first problem was she broke poorly, but her jockey, Rajiv Maragh didn't rush her, and she settled nicely.  He kept her out of trouble and on the far turn she made her patented run and cruised right up to the leaders while four-wide.  As heads turned for home she looked just like she had at the Breeders' Cup, all the momentum and dead aim on the leaders and then.......she spun her wheels and could not get by either the winner or the second place runner!  Huge disappointment.  And the number she earned that day reflected the concern of many, including this handicapper........

Was she the same champion or had her poor early season training been a sign that as a five-year-old she had just gone over the top?  Tonight would be the acid test.  As the race got closer I kept looking for signs and/or quotes from the trainer that she was going to run great tonight.......or comments that they "hoped" she would run well.  But heading into this afternoon I had yet to read anything that led me to believe either way.  The DRF provided the past performances to the race for free so I downloaded them and analyzed them - this would be on my handicapping, and nothing else.  As I looked over he field and the past performances it because quickly apparent that the whole race and the bet came down to one "if-or" opinion.......If you believed that she was still the champion sprinter, and that she was either "short" for the Gardenia, or the mile was less than ideal for her then she was going to walk with this race......OR if you believed that her early works had been the tell-tale sign that she wasn't the same runner, and the Gardenia confirmed this, then she was going to go down to defeat at a very short price.  I did not believe she was over the top.  I blamed the Gardenia loss not on any one factor, but on the combination of events....it had been the "perfect storm" of bad things - a poor break, a slow pace, a wide trip, coming off a long layoff, going too far in distance, and probably taking the competition too lightly (not having her fully cranked up) had all led to her loss.  Tonight there would be no mistakes.  We'd see the real Groupie Doll.  The only concern I had as I looked over the past performances was the #6 horse, Purely Hot.  She OBVIOUSLY was not in the same class as Groupie Doll, but she was quick and would have first jump on the champion; more importantly she was a perfect SIX-for-SIX at Presque Isle Downs (and over synthetic surfaces), including five straight blow-out wins.  If Groupie Doll was anything less than her best, this in-form, horse-for-the-course could be the one to spring the upset.  So I made my decision....it was Groupie Doll to WIN for me.  The bet.....I wanted to go "all in" with a $50 bet because I thought maybe tonight I'd get the best price of her career on her.  And I had briefly considered going out to Gulfstream to cash my winning tickets and get the big bet ticket.  But I decided that regardless of the odds, she was not going to be a price that would lead to a big profit, so I just wanted to support her with a "prime time" investment.  I'd gone $20 to win on Departing, and I thought Groupie Doll was a better bet, so I landed on $25 to win.

As I watched the race on TVG (which were on track in Erie, that was pretty cool!) Groupie Doll was a miserly 1-9 on the board.  Really?  I thought this was really an underlay with all the evidence that perhaps she wasn't the same this year.  But, she floated up to 1/5 and that I thought was a fair price.  Then, with five minutes to post someone dropped a ton of money on her and she plummeted to 1-9 again as they approached the gate.  But as they were finishing loading she was back up to 1/5.  The gates flew open and she broke a little slowly.  I was at first concerned because instead of being four or five off the dueling leaders she was next-to-last and about ten off the lead.  Then the fractions were posted.....:21 and change and :44 and change.  W-A-Y too fast for these fillies and mares.  As the field approached the turn Groupie Doll began picking off rivals one at a time.  By mid-way on the turn she dead aim on the two dueling leaders and was about to take third from the #6 horse who had also begun to run in earnest.  Uh oh, the #6?  That's the one I'm afraid of.  I thought I'd sweep by, but Groupie Doll was floated five wide (at least) while Purely Hot (#6) cornered much better.  At the furlong marker Groupie Doll was wearing her down, but could she get there in time?  Purely Hot ran the race of her life, but in the final 16th Groupie Doll forged by, and if you watch the video below you will notice that Maragh was really not pushing her for her very best through the lane.  WINNNER! 

As the TVG analysts started to rehash the race the final time came up........last year she'd won this race in a final time of 1:16.1 - a very quick time for the 6 1/2 furlongs.  But tonight's finish had stopped the teletimer at 1:14.1 - A NEW TRACK RECORD!  So, for the weekend I finished an excellent 16 WINS from 29 selections - an amazing 55% win rate!

Groupie Doll is indeed back!  The Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint is going to be a great race!  Here's the video of the race!