Friday September 20

He's Back!

Today I continued to pick my spots for my Fall Handicapping project, and found myself at Belmont Park for the featured $100K Aljamin Stakes. The race was a 6 1/2 furlong sprint race for 3-year-olds and upwards. But the draw to the race was the long-awaited return to the races of 2012 Juvenile of the Year, Shanghai Bobby. He was the undefeated Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner at Santa Anita last November, but ironically I'd never made him my selection in any of those victories. As soon as he crossed the wire in the Grade 1 Juvenile I said he would be the early Kentucky Derby favorite, but would NEVER win the race. His best races were destined, I felt to be at 8 1/2 furlongs or less. When I heard he was wintering at Gulfstream Park I thought he'd be a great bet in his initial start, but would be a solid "bet against" in the Florida Derby.
As it turned out I was right.....sort of. He made his seasonal debut in the one-turn mile, Grade 3 Holy Bull and set a track record as my top selection! The only problem was that Itsmyluckyday broke that track record - in the same race, beating Bobby by about a length and a half. When they pointed him to the Florida Derby I was at first against him, but then felt that he'd run well in this spot; and I particularly liked the fact that Rosie Napravnik, his regular rider, had given up multiple mounts on solid favorites throughout the Fair Grounds card on Florida Derby Day to ride him. This was even more significant when you consider that she was the leading rider at the Fair Grounds and on this day it was Louisiana Derby Day, so she was forfeiting a lot of great opportunities. He did not run well at Gulfstream and so I was 0-for-2 on him. it was discovered he had a broken pelvic bone after the Florida Derby and he was sent to the farm until he made his return today. I initially thought I'd play him, but then wasn't sure how ready he might be. Yesterday I read that trainer Todd Pletcher said if he ran well they were thinking of his next start in the Breeders' Cup! That sounds like a lot of confidence to me! Then I saw on HRTV on "Pursuit Of The Cup" that Pletcher commented Bobby wasn't typically a good morning workout horse, but he'd been training very sharply for today. When I read that he was also Dave Liftin's top selection, I was on board with a triple investment.
He tracked the pace-setter down the backstretch and through the turn. He looked to be ready to pounce, but through the first furlong of the Belmont stretch he made up no ground! But inside the final 16th he responded to jockey John Velazquez's urging and he drew off as simply the best horse! In the final five minutes of betting his floated up from 1-5, to 2-5 and then to a more-than-fair 1-2! Cashed for nearly $25! WHOOO HOOOO!