A HUGE DAY OF WINNERS!
I was at first reluctant to head out to Gulfstream - or Calder - today, as I had set my mind to the fact that the Fall Racing Season was a much-needed time to recharge. More so than over the winter when I handicapped every day at Gulfstream. Their winter season was made up of five racing days a week from December to April, and that was a long grind. But the Saratoga meeting was six days a week from July 19 to Labor Day. That is a lot of handicapping with very little time for a break - especially when I am also watching the races, keeping my results records, and writing in my online journal every day in addition to the handicapping. Yet, I had not been out on track since the Travers, a span of over two weeks; and I had not been to a local venue in over three weeks. I had winning tickets to the tune of almost $75 burning a hole in my pocket that I wanted to play with, and so I decided I would look for a few spot plays on Sunday. I told Kim I thought I'd find maybe half a dozen races or so an planned to probably go out today, but I didn't see myself handicapping all day during college football for a full-out assault on the track.
But by Saturday morning I'd decided to get the Daily Racing Form as there were six tracks running - Calder, Gulfstream, Arlington, Churchill, Belmont, and Monmouth - that I liked to play and I felt certain I'd find enough to make at least a half day out of it. As I handicapped, I tried to stick to my conservative style for the season and only pick races where I felt that I had more than an edge, but where I thought I had a big edge before listing them on my selection sheet. I got through Gulfstream, Calder and Belmont before the kickoff of the first game; and I'd finished the others by the time it was halftime of the second game. I felt pretty good about my handicapping. I was surprised, but pleased that I had six selections at Gulfstream where I would physically be. But I was very selective at Calder, Arlington, and Churchill where I had 3, 2, and 3 selections out of their 30 combined races I found five at Monmouth and six at Belmont to complete a 25 race selection sheet. Early in the day Keith had called from Illinois and wanted to know if I had any picks for the day. I gave him the three on Saturday (which all won), but told him I'd be handicapping for a full day of action Sunday, and he asked for my selections, so I forwarded those on to him early today before I headed out.
Two things jumped out at me as I walked into Gulfstream about my selections. First, I seemed to have a lot of "added money" picks, but I felt pretty confident about my selections, and I took this as a good sign that I had been faithful to my plan to only bet races where I had a bigger than usual edge; the second thing was how many favorites I appeared to have on my sheet. My reaction to that was to think that today had the makings of one of those days where I cash a lot of tickets, but it won't provide an opportunity for any big scores. I didn't look to have many price plays and I didn't have any "prime time" investments.
Well, the day did NOT start as I had hoped! I was an even running third at 3/5 in the opener at Monmouth (with added money on the line) and then missed at 4/5 at Calder when Well Done Son did not clear the field, but instead dueled to the furlong pole....put away the other speed, but was softened enough to let a longshot blow by him late.....second. But then things picked up! I walked out to the rail to watch my first pick at Gulfstream where trainer Kirk Ziadie had sent out Musical Flair for owner Frank Calabrese, with leading jockey Edgar Zayas. I had preferred the other half of the entry, but "trust in Kirk!" He's winning at an amazing 43% overall here, and Zayas is winning at an even bigger 47% rate in the Team Calabrese colors. Musical Colors was well bet, to 1/2 - which I thought was fair considering there were several scratches. She went right to the front and was never threatened. WHOOOO HOOOO! I'm on the board!
When I had made my double investment on Musical Flair, I'd also doubled down on Jardenia at Churchill Downs. She was listed at 6/5 on the morning line and IF she ran to her numbers, she would be a handy winner. As I walked in from the rail the monitor was replaying the Churchill stretch run and there was only one horse on the screen.....Jardenia who was under wraps crossing the finish line! AWESOME! Two in a row! Three losses followed, all at short odds.....Back Away was outfinished over the Monmouth turf, second; El Speedo looked to run to his name as the lone speed at Calder, but he broke slowly and from the gate to the first turn the rider seemed to be fighting to get his feet back in the irons. He eventually settled in and was pressing the leader to the far turn, then stopped running through the lane to be fifth. Rebranded was Dave Liftin's "Best" at Belmont nd betdown to 3/5 at Belmont. No wonder, he was a Todd Pletcher 2-year-old second time starter. In his debut he was 3rd behind a runner who'd come back to win the Grade 1 Hopeful last weekend! He broke slowly and from the get-go it looked like jockey John Velazquez had to push him to run. He seemed to make up some ground through the turn but then stopped badly, 7th. Two for my first seven and five of them had been less than even money, and the other two had been the solid favorites at less than 2/1. Not enjoying this afternoon I thought. But then "it" began....."it" being an afternoon which was similar to the way Trotter felt in the movie "Let It Ride," when he said, "I'm having a wonderful day!"
It was time for the second at Gulfstream and I had selected Entrada. Another Team Calabrese/Kirk Ziadie/Edgar Zayas runner. Figured to be well played, and she was. She'd beaten better at this distance two races back in 2-lifetime company, and was now dropping in price into a 3-lifetime spot today. Looked like an all-Team Calabrese-double to me! Just like Musical Flair, Entrada was in front within the first fifty yards and never took a deep breath! I posed in the paddock to indicate my perfect 2-for-2 start to the day at Gulfstream!
I had a break of about half an hour before back-to-back triple investments. The first was at Monmouth on the turf. I considered making it a "prime time" bet, but I hesitated because Vacation Time had earned her superior finishes and speed figures against higher priced company, but in 2-lifetime races. So today she was NOT dropping from open company, but merely going from a tougher restricted spot to today's lower price level. No matter, jockey Paco Lopez had her right where I thought she'd be, right off the pace and when he said go she was LONG gone!
Less than ten minutes later and it was time for my "best" at Belmont. The 4th was a claiming event, and Revealing Moment had been claimed out of her latest. She barn was just OK with first off the claim runners, but what I really liked was that she'd been competitive (albeit as a two-year-old) with future multiple Grade 1 heroine Princess of Sylmar AND jockey Javier Castellano, who's been riding like his hair is on fire, decided to ride back despite the change in barns. She ran away from the crowd as TONS the best! Three I a row!
Within less than ten minutes it was time for another Gulfstream race. This time it was yet another Team Calabrese runner. Dreamingofunclereda had dominated her competition in winning her debut here back in March, and I thought she'd repeat today. She was the second choice in the early betting, but everyone wised up and she left the gate as the 3/5 heavy favorite......
.....but she was much the best, my THIRD WIN in a row at Gulfstream! And it topped off a run of four winners in a row over a span of an hour! Now THIS is what I'd hoped for when I drove out here today!
I got a nice price, finally, at Belmont when A Better Tomorrow went off at 4/1. It was on the turf; Javier Castellano riding; and owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey. He was checked on the turn and behind a wall of horses, 7th. Not sure if he'd caught the winner anyway, but he did have an excuse. They were approaching the gate at Gulfstream for the fifth and I had Bluegrass Derby. She had won her debut then was second in a good turf sprint stakes last timeout. The return to the main track looked to be the recipe for success I thought. She was beat down to 1/5 in the early wagering and I considered upping my be. But, I thought, I've been winning with so many favorites, and the ones I'd won with were mostly added money picks; the ones where I did not add money had by and large NT scored, so I stuck with my original plan. Floated up to 3/5 and it was a thrilling finish....made even more so by the fact that I won my FOURTH in a row at Gulfstream! How great is this afternoon going?
In the 6th at Monmouth I thought as the race was being run that I had finally found my "score" of the day. Raro went off at 3/1 over the Monmouth turf and jockey Paco Lopez was a 40% winner for the barn, and the filly was in very sharp form. I thought she would sit right behind the front-running favorite and blow by in the stretch. As they headed down the back side the favorite was in front, but Raro was glued to her hip and Lopez just looked to be waiting to give her the "GO" sign. As they spun out of the turn he gave her the cue, but the front runner did a good job of hugging the rail and when Raro floated three-or-four wide she lost a few lengths. She couldn't run down the front-runner and was a best-of-the-rest second. I had two more bets before I planned to head for home (and watch the rest on replays). The first of which was my final bet at Calder. I was particularly "invested" in this race in spite of having only the minimum bet. The pick was Stat, who held a special spot in my racing history. To kick off my retirement I had gone to Saratoga for the Grade 1 Saratoga Special. My pick that day was Todd Pletcher's Stat, but he'd been second best behind an impressive runner, Union Rags. Union Rags should have won both the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby (and I was at both of those big events, and bet him heavily) but he was poorly ridden; but justified everyone's faith in him by winning the Grade 1 Belmont. Not nearly the same kind of story with Stat who'd won an allowance race, but now found himself in a second level allowance spot at Calder in early September. In spite of new owners, I still knew he had some talent from that 2011 trip to the Spa. He was 3/1 early in the betting, then went to 2/1, then 9/5, then 8/5 co-favorite and finally as they left the gate he was the 3/2 favorite. Stat sat just off the leaders, then made his move spinning out of the turn and ran away to in by open daylight! HORRAY!
I missed in my final "live" bet when Color Me Blue had nothing for the stretch at 4/1 at Arlington....7th. When I go home we went out to eat at Outback and then by the time we arrived back at the house all of my races were run, so it was online to twinspires.com to watch the replays...... I missed at Belmont when Todd Pletcher's Ichiban Warrior - a 2yo first time starter - was 8th at 4/1. Mssed again when Great Mills High stalked the pace at Churchill at a big 7/1 number, only to have nothing for the stretch run....7th. But, just when I was starting to wonder if I'd "used up" all my winning selections for the day, I went on another nice run......The 8th at Gulfstream was a nw2x allowance turf test and I was against the favorite. I settled on Bi Flash, listed at 6/1 in the program. At post time she was bet down to 5/2. The race unfolded just as I'd seen it, with one exception. Breaking from post ten I felt certain she'd get into a ground-saving spot by the time they hit the back side. But, she was wide into the first turn; then continued wide down the back stretch. When is he going to get into position to save ground through the far turn I wondered....never! Continued on a four-to-five wide trip while picking off horses through the turn. Spun into the stretch nearly six wide but continued to wear down the front-runners and in deep stretch finally arrived at the front, just in time for the wire! My FIFTH win from five picks at Gulfstream!
The next race on my selection sheet was my "BET of the Day!" Crazy About Me had a huge Beyer advantage over all his rivals today, but had earned those figures at Parx. He'd worked over the Jersey Shore strip and blitzed a best-of-3r bullet work for today. Looked long gone on the lead if no one wanted it, but capable of sitting just off a long shot leader if necessary. He popped out of the gate an was quickly two in front. When the first quarter fraction for the six furlong sprint came up a very soft :23 and change the race was over. He won by ten widening lengths with the rider sitting motionless from the time they left the gate!
The next race listed on my sheet was the 9th and feature from Churchill Downs. On this Sunday afternoon it was a first level allowance turf race, but Irish Sea had been FLYING through the stretch last time out when coming off an extended 18 month layoff. With second off the shelf improvement I thought she'd be tough to beat. My only concern was, based on that last race, she appeared to be a deep closer.....which would mean she'd be dependent on a solid pace and would have to negotiate traffic. All of that quickly went out the window when as they moved through the clubhouse turn she as stalking the leader, and then it was a big gap back to the rest of the field. If she had anything close to the same closing punch, she'd be tough to beat I thought. She did....she was.....won by daylight! And she went off at a nice 2/1 and change, so I collected over $30!
In the ninth at Belmont Kiss Me Lola was a "double fig" runner (last two Beyers were better than any LIFETIME figure of the rest of the field), but those were in turf sprints, and this was a turf route. She looked to be able to get the one mile distance. Right to the front....and stopped like she was shot at 3/1, 10th. Dramatize was the pick at Arlington and she was the 6/5 favorite. Sat the perfect stalking trip and when asked to run in the lane came right to the leader, but couldn't go by.....faded late, but held second. My final win on the day, my TWELFTH....amazing, right?.....came in the Gulfstream (yes, Gulfstream, even MORE amazing!) finale. I - like in the opener - preferred the other half of the entry, but that one scratched, so I was counting on the trainer knowing what was best! Chippette shot right out of the gate and was LONG GONE....probably the easiest of winners on the day, and as you can tell from reading this journal, there were some very easy winners in Hallandale for me today! Chippette became my SIXTH winner from six picks at Gulfstream! WHOOO HOOOO!
Some might try to take some of the luster off my perfect day locally, but check this out.......critics COULD say I just picked the chalk, and that is largely true, but here's the real story. There were ten races on the card that I handicapped. I liked the program favorite in four of those races. In the four races I did NOT like the favorite - and didn't find a likely alternative, the favorite one only one....25%. In the four races where I DID like the program favorite, they all won.....100%! Another runner, who was 3/1 in the program, third choice, was sent off as the 3/5 favorite, and she won. And in the only other race on the card, I did not like the favorite, and bet a horse that was 6/1 in the program. She did not leave the gate favored, and won! So when I went against the favorite I passed on three beaten favorites, scored by betting AGAINST the favorite, and cashed on four-for-four favorites I did like. That, my friends is solid handicapping and proves what I often say about my selections. I do end up on a lot of favorites, but the statistics show that when I back a favorite they are a much more likely winner than a post-time favorite in general!
The final race on my sheet was on the turf at Belmont when With Exultation was sent off at 5/2. I knew she was a closer, but I "took issue" with the rider who sat in the back, WELL off the pace in spite of a :25 opening quarter and a :49 and change half mile. Good riders should know better than to try to close into those kind of dawdling fractions. So on the day I was a superb 12-for-25 (48%) and scored on the day! One big bet tomorrow in the Grade 2 $400K Presque Isle Masters to close out the weekend!
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