Wednesday October 9

What an A - M - A - Z - N - G Day!

Well, as often as the journals and stories from my racing days are often "that's a first" kind of thing, today was TRULY one of those days.  I can't ever remember having this kind of day where the events of the day combined like they did today.  I decided to go (a) just because I can now that I'm retired and haven't taken advantage of that very much this fall; and (b) because there was a nice graded stakes at Keeneland so it would make for a good day of racing I thought.  It also didn't hurt that I had not been out of the house to go anywhere for many a day during the week.  The first thing that was interesting came on Tuesday when I went to buy the Daily Racing Form.  When I was in Ohio and the first day I picked up my Mom's daily newspaper, the Columbus Dispatch I was surprised that it was now the size of a magazine, or smaller.  Well, when I went to get the Form it too was now a small sized publication. 

I can't decide how I feel about it.  It is convenient, it is the size of a typical race program; and the font actually seems a little larger.  The paper is supposedly  brighter white in color to make for easier reading.  And there are some additional handicapping tools.  Regardless, I handicapped for Belmont, Keeneland, Laurel, and Delaware Park. 

The first race on my sheet was at Belmont and I was the event money favorite......2nd.  Little did I know this was foreshadowing for the day!  I ran 6th at 7/5, then 3rd at 9/5 and a very disappointing 6th at 2/5 at Laurel.  Interestingly, much like Saturday when Calder did not carry Indiana Downs, today they didn't carry Laurel's signal.  Which made little sense because there are very few tracks running midweek....what ever  Finally a winner, but oh what a winner and a story!

The race was the 3rd at Keeneland, a typical Wednesday afternoon race, and non-winners of two lifetime for juvenile fillies.  We were going a mile on the turf.  As I looked through the past performances of the entries nothing jumped out at me.  There were about three logical runners, but nothing that looked like a horse with a solid advantage to bet on them.  Then on the second pass through the field I saw the #6-Street Sailing.  And in particular I noticed her trainer stats.....

Note the highlighted areas - while Street Sailing had never been on the turf the trainer earns $3.42 for every $2 bet on his first time turf runners.  When that number is over $2 it's a big number, so $3.42 is a HUGE number!  But can she turf?  In the car box, you'll note that she has Tomlinson numbers of over 400 for both distance and turf......a "300" means a horse is well suited to the surface or distance, so she is truly bred for turf an distance.  With all her career starts being sprints I thought she'd show some speed, in a race without much speed.  And finally, the two other trainer stats that leaped off the page - moving a horse from synthetic to turf produced an ROI of $4.57 and the best stat of all is when the barn has a horse stretch out to a route after two sprints they win an amazing 60% and they pay an average of $14.88 for every $2!  This barn wins with longshots!  Add in the fact that she debuted against the boys and ran second, then beat Maiden Specials in her second start.  The fact that her connections brought her off the shelf in a stakes told me they thought highly of her, so today's non-winners of 2 lifetime was a very comfortable spot for her if they were right.  The program odds were 15/1, but she left the gate at 16/1.  Right away I was hopeful as she was pressing the pace into the backstretch.  When the field hit the far turn she and the leader were separated from the field and the rider had no asked yet.  The closers began to accelerate as they straightened for home, but then Street Sailing was given her cue and she EXPLODED.  She opened up to, as track announcer Kurt Becker called it, "CRUSH the field!"  She won by about ten WIDENING lengths.  The $2 payoff was posted at $34.80 and I was ready to cash for over $85!  I posed for a celebration photo and posted it on Facebook for all my friends and followers!  WHOOO HOOO! 

 

After the big win I had back-to-back scratches, so my next race was in the 4th at Keeneland.  Unfortunately the same pattern as earlier in the day started all over again as I went TEN straight without a win before heading for home.  At Keeneland I was third with a first-off-the-claim for Michael Maker and owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey, normally a near 30% win proposition;  third again at 3/5 at Delaware and a miserable 7th as the 2/1 favorite with German import Ay No Digas on the turf.  No surprise when 34/1 upset shot Viramundo showed little to finish last at Keeneland.  And then "the streak" started after a 6th over the Delaware turf.  I looked at the remaining races and thought, "....if I hit 30% today then I'm about to win at least five of the last nine picks today..."  At Laure I was 2nd at 8/5 with a first-off-the-claim runner for Jamie Ness (a 38% winning angle).  Then in a photo finish at Keeneland I was second, again, at 2/1 when Tropic of Artie could not finish the deal after taking a brief lead at the top of the lane.

At Belmont I was SECOND at 5/2 with Wonderfully Wild.  At Delaware I was SECOND with Revocation at 3/5 and just before I left I was S-E-C-O-N-D AGAIN at Keeneland when Gal About Town couldn't win as the 3/5 favorite.  I made my last four bets and headed home, shaking my head at the great score, offset by the MULTIPLE losses, especially the parade of runner-up finishes.  As soon as I got home I turned on the TVG recorded races and watched my pick in Belmont's featured Coastal Stakes, Todd Pletcher's Midnight Taboo, run SECOND at 3/1.  Wow.....how long can this go on?  Mercifully I was 4th and NOT second at Laurel when Stephanoatsee lost at in an allowance spot. 

When I had cashed the big ticket I first had a thought I should profit for the day; but I counted up the bets for the remainder of the day - and remember that win came at 2:00 in just my fifth selection of the day - I calculated I "only" needed to collect $85 to come out a winner for the day.  Of course, I had no way of knowing that I'd pile up all the second place finishes late in the day.  But I was clinging to the small hope of maybe getting close to even if I could cash on my "BEST" of the day.  That was coming in the featured Gr 3 Jessamine at Keeneland. When I had checked my Facebook account before even leaving for the track Keeneland had posted the question to their followers, "Who do you like in the Jessamine Stakes today."  I responded that not only did I like Kitten Kaboodle, but she was my "BEST" of the day (note the "LIKE" to my comment - this came from the Keeneland facebook administrator :)

Here was my thinking......in her debut, this Ramsey filly had raced at Saratoga at this distance over the turf.  She rallied strongly through the lane, but was steadied in traffic late costing her the victory.  She still was second, beaten slightly more than a length in spite of the troubled trip.  She was the even money favorite in her next start in mid-August, facing one of today's rivals, Candy Kitty.  But that day this Pletcher filly went to the front and somehow was allowed to set what DRF analyst Byron King termed a "comical" pace of :27.2, :53.4, and 1:17.4 all alone on the lead.  Any chance of Kitten Kaboodle rallying into that pace were slim to none.  Add on to this the fact that my filly had also stumbled out of the gate and you'd have to admit that her ability to finish a best-of-the-rest second was remarkable indeed.  She legitimately could have won BOTH races.  Well, since that start she'd moved into Chad Brown's barn and he's a super trainer, especially on the turf.  His winning numbers with horses making their first start after transferring into his barn....30%!  With a much stronger pace anticipated today, I thought she had an excellent chance to win and made her my "BET of the Day."  I turned to see what DRF's Byron King had to say, and interestingly she was HIS "Best."

As I got to the start of the race on TVG two of the analysts were saying they both felt that Kitten Kaboodle was the one to beat.  But luckily the odds were a juicy 7/2!  She sat a perfect tracking trip, saving ground along the rail.  As the came through the turn several closers began to move and the field was stacked up at least five across the track as they began to turn heads for home.  But at this moment the front-runner didn't corner well, opening up a seam on the inside, and then veered outside for a stride or more, parting the seas on the inside with an open invitation to Kitten Kaboodle to make her run. Jockey Alan Garcia shook the reins and it was over.  Not only did she have the best trip, but she was CLEARLY the best filly as she drew off to win by nearly five widening lengths! 

The best news came when prices were posted on the board.  She had held her odds and the payoff for a $2 bet was $9.40.  With my $20 "Prime Time" investment I was going to cash for $94.00!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Combine that with the other payout of $86 and I am a profitable winner for the day of a clean Andrew Jackson $20!  The fact that The Lady Says Yes ran second, yes second again, was inconsequential to me.  My numbers for the day, a less-than-inspiring 19 selections, 2 wins, EIGHT SECONDS, and 3 thirds.  But for a profit of $20 for the day!  Check out my handicapping video and race replays of the two big wins below.......

Sunday October 6

EMOLLIENT WINS!

One of my favorite sophomore fillies, Emollient was entered for today's Grade 1 Juddmonte Spinster.  She has been inconsistent, but when she scores it has been with a display of talent that is fun to watch.  Knowing that she was not a "Best" bet I looked over the races being run today and read through the analysis to see if there were any other solid selections.  I found what looked like five good spots to bet, and played online.  Later in the evening I watched the replays, and then the final race live on TVG. 

My first selection came at Woodbine in the Grade 3 Durham Cup.  Delegation was listed as the 4/5 program choice and was Jim Bannon's top selection.  He won by nine widening lengths at Woodbine two back and then dueled with likely Horse of the Year, Game On Dude (if he gets the BC Classic win) in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic.  He left the gate as the odds-on 1/4 choice, but faded badly to 6th.  The next race on the sheet was the Spinster. 

Emollient had been my top choice on Florida Derby Day to win the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, but she'd run dully.  The very next weekend, on just seven days rest, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott had entered her in the Grade 1 Ashland.  I wrote in my analysis that I didn't believe Mott would do that if he wasn't convinced she'd win - he's typically very conservative with his runners.  She ran away from the field and paid over $14!  AND most important for today's race, it was over this Keeneland surface!  In that win and in her win in the Grade 1 American Oaks - her first try over grass when shipped out west - she had been close to the pace.  I felt sure Mike Smith - who'd won four races at Santa Anita Saturday and then flown here - would put her right on the lead, or just off the lead.  The gates opened and he gave her two quick taps on the hip to get her into early gear......but she'd have nothing of it!  Quickly she dropped to the back of the field.  Really?  But as they came down the back stretch she began to pick off horses, and by the time they hit the turn she was moving smoothly to the leaders.  She was spun about six wide out of the turn, but now she was in high gear and she BLEW by to score going away!  My double investment was rewarded with a nice payoff of more than $30! 

 

My final three selections were all at Santa Anita.  The second race on the card was an allowance and Declassify was the 2/5 favorite in the program.  That is REALLY rare to see a horse listed at those odds on the morning line.  Brad Free noted she'd posted back-to-back Beyers I his last two starts with blow-out wins.  He had been entered in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint Saturday, but scratched for this softer spot.  Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens sealed the deal.  He went right to the front, opened up, and the as they turned for home stopped like he was shot at 1-4 odds.  Sigh......In the third race Free commented that if Diamond Bachelor came back to win today's Zuma Stakes after winning his maiden and a small stakes last out, he just might be the BC Juvenile Turf favorite.  He too was odds-on at 2/5.  He stalked the leader, surged to the front in mid-stretch, but was caught late....2nd.  The final selection on the day was my "Best" of the day.  I'd seen Clenor win over the Del Mar turf and was really impressed.  Today she was looking to use the Surfer Girl Stakes as a final prep for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.  There appeared to be enough pace to set up her late kick, and so I tripled the bet.  She was sitting in mid-pack for Rafael Bejarano - a little closer to the lead than when I'd last seen her run - and as they hit the far turn he stepped on the gas.  Effortlessly she inhaled the leaders and went to the front.  Though the margin of victory was small, it was under a confident hand ride the entire length of the stretch.  MUCH the best!  WHOOO HOOO!

Saturday October 5

Down Go The Grade 1 Winners!

When I look back on today, and frankly when most handicappers look back on today, the one thing most will remember is how today was the day when MANY Grade 1 winners were putting in their final prep for the 2013 Breeders' Cup and instead of building momentum, they were sent down to defeat at very short odds.  And with those multiple defeats, so went my profit for the day.  Still, I had a fairly good day of handicapping (10-for-37, 28%) and cashed on six stakes races.  Here's how the day played out........

In the opener at Belmont I thought Todd Pletcher's Atlantic Dream had a solid chance to rebound at a big price.  In his last he was the 2/1 favorite over many of these, and today he was listed at 6/1 in the program.  He left the gate at 6/1 and made a bold move spinning out of the turn, only to be narrowly beaten in third.  But I bounced right back with three straight victories.  The first was at Keeneland in their opener.  Trainer Michael Maker had entered Ken & Sarah Ramsey's All Alex, and named Julian Leparoux to ride.  The connections don't get much better than that and he finished strongly in the final 16th to produce my first winner.  Ten minutes later trainer Kirk Ziadie sent out Dreaming of Bella for Team Calabrese, with Edgar Zayas on board.  And you DO NOT get any better than that locally as she wired the 7 furlong distance as the favorite.  I topped off my trifecta of winners wen I tabbed Madison Street in Calder's third race as my "Bet of the Day" at the Miami Gardens oval.  I thought she was quickest of the group, and especially at 5 1/2 furlongs would have little trouble leading them on a merry chase.  Right to the front and LONG GONE! 

After cashing on three of my first four picks, I was anticipating another 40% plus day and looking forward to the multiple "best" bets I had later on the stakes-laden cards around the country.  Over the next sixty minutes I could not find the winner's circle however.  At Gulfstream Team Calabrese and Kirk Ziadie could not seal the early double.  Possible Dreams was Mike Welsch of the DRF "best" of the day, so upped the wager.  At Belmont I ran third with Chasintheblues who was VERY close on the wire at a nice 3/1.  Fourth at Calder when Flyin Trey could not repeat his last effort as the 3/2 favorite.  At Keeneland Greyfall was 3rd at 5/2 for Bill Mott and I ended the string of losses with another second, this time at Indiana Downs.  I typically don't bet Indiana Downs, but today was their Indiana Derby Day card which featured six stakes races.  Interesting story......at about 20 minutes before post time I went front-to-back on both floors at Calder searching for a monitor with the Indiana Downs races.  Not finding one I asked at information if they were taking wagers on Indiana Downs, and the answer was "No."  Luckily through the wonder of technology I was able to wager AND watch the races on my iPhone! 

Finally I was cashed when at Calder I doubled the investment on Loveyouallthetime.  Another interesting side story......I debated about which track to go to today, Calder or Gulfstream.  I had multiple selections on both programs, and finally settled on Calder because their simulcast television set-up is better.  I get there and find that while at Gulfstream the racing conditions are "Fast and Firm," at Calder it is "Fast and OFF the turf!"  It's near 90 degrees and we haven't had rain since Thursday afternoon, but that's how Calder management has traditionally been......it rained this week, we're off the turf.  SOOO many times I've lost picks due to these crazy decisions (if it is legitimate then what's wrong with the course that it can't take water like Gulfstream, minutes away?).  At any rate I had a turf pick and a "Main Track Only" selection.  Loveyouallthetime had the perfect draw, post 12, to stalk the frontrunner and blow by in the lane.  The race played out EXACTLY as I'd seen it!  WHOOO HOOOO.  cashed for $20.  Fifteen minutes later I scored my first win at Monmouth - I only had two picks on the Jersey Shore today - when juvenile filly Flay Mignon rocketed out of the gate and was clear throughout under a confident hand ride in their feature, the Jersey Juvenile Stakes!  It was my Monmouth "Best" of the day!

They had no sooner crossed the finish line that I was at Indiana Downs watching Rivertown Belle draw clear late in the Hoosier Breeders' Sophomore Stakes on my iPhone....got back $30! 

Off this second 3-race win streak I stood at 6-for-11 on the day, and still felt like the best was yet to come.  As Coach Corso says on ESPN's College Game Day, "Not so fast my friend!"  The wheels were about to come off the proverbial wagon.......I was clear into the lane in a Belmont turf sprint with Hothersal, only to be caught late at 2/1.  Then the first of multiple stakes races came up at Keeneland.  I had picked Great Mills, against my gut feeling, but he simply had the best numbers and class, in spite of struggling to win in these kinds of spots.  He tossed in the towel on the turn and was 10th as the 5/2 second choice.  My third choice, Havelock, won and paid over $17.....sigh.  I missed at Gulfstream in a turf maiden claimer, yeah - ON the turf - wow.  Then the first of the "BIG" bets.....Keeneland's 56th was the Grade 2 TCA Oaks.  I wondered about Groupie Doll "bouncing" off the track record win at Presque Isles, but I thought they were building momentum for the Breeders' Cup.  When I read that her trainer was exuding confidence I went "all in" on her.  She was a little closer to the pace than usual and when asked for her late kick, it wasn't there.  She lost to my third choice who paid $10.  Wow x 2!  The Quality Road Stakes at Gulfstream saw me suffer another loss when Where's Sterling could not make up any ground on the loose-on-the-lead front runner, and crossed the wire 4th as the 1/1 favorite.  I closed out this skid with a dull 5th b Say (at 5/2) in the Grade 1 First Lady over the Keeneland turf.  But it was very hard to watch her race because it was a DRIVING rainstorm.  So bad in fact that management took the rest of the races off the turf - including the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf! 

I began what I hoped would be a late rally & recovery in the first stakes race at Santa Anita.  It was the Swingtime Stakes, going a mile over the turf.  There wasn't a single horse in the field that wanted to lead.  But #1-Miss Pippa had shown some early speed many races back.  With "rider-for-hire" Mike Smith, and the rail draw, I thought she'd go right to the front and steal it.  But Smith had other ideas.  He took her to the BACK of the field - where I was sure he had little chance to close into an average at best pace.  But as they turned for home he split horses and was up in time!  That's why he's a Hall of Fame rider, and I'm not! 

Better to be lucky than right when it comes to why you pick the winner!  :)  But my luck completely ran out on the day over the next 75 minutes.  Fifth in the Ta Wee at Indiana with Street of Gold at 2/1; 6th at Belmont in the Grade 1 Jamaica for sophomores.  I had War Dancer who stalked the pace at a juicy 6/1, and was making what I thought was a winning move in mid-stretch when he was completely shut-off by a wall of horses and he finished a close 6th while still full of run :(  At Monmouth Major Score was 1-9 for most of the betting before finally floating up to 7/5 at post time.  No where to be found, 5th.  In the Mari Hulman George at Indiana Downs my bad racing luck continued when Don't Tell Sophia was boxed in through the entire final turn.  When she got free she was absolutely flying, but had lost nearly six lengths on the eventual winner.  I am certain she was the best horse, but no money to prove it.  I was second AGAIN in the Grade 1 Frizette for two-year-old fillies at Belmont going a one-turn mile when the 3/5 favorite Sweet Reason - who'd been ultra impressive in two wins at Saratoga - basically did the splits coming out of the gate and quickly spotted the field about ten lengths.  The rider was patient, let her settle, then made a big run through the lane.....a close, but non-threating runner-up check for her.  Then in the most disappointing finish of the day, it was the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland scheduled for the turf. It was very interesting to me that ten horses were in the field with Horse of the Year Wise Dan. He was coming off a scintillating score in a course record time in the Woodbine Mile.  When the race was moved to the main track I was even more surprised when all ten stayed in the race.  I considered briefly changing my bet, but then remembered his career best 117 Beyer when he annexed the Grade 3 Fayette over this very main track in the spring of 2012.  His five-for-six synthetic record was easily best of anyone in today's lineup.  Despite being in post 10 he was quickly only two-or-three wide down the back stretch and well I hand behind front-runner Silver Max.  He was right on that one's hip as they went through the turn, and then Jockey John Velazquez shook the reins.  Over the last 18 months that had always resulted in an instantaneous and electrifying acceleration as he blew by the leaders.  But today, no response!  Velazquez worked him through the lane and while it's true that Silver Max did not lengthen his lead, and at one point I still thought Wise Dan would gut it out, he could not get by.......second, again.  The worthless tickets continued when Rail Trip was a distant 9th in the Schaefer at Indiana, and then multiple Grade 1 turf miler Obviously - who is CLEARLY the best and fastest of the milers out west - rated nicely behind cheap speed, opened up two into the lane then had no response as not one, not two, but THREE horses ran by him to the wire.  WOW. 

FINALLY I got back on the board, and the nice price was of some consolation to me.......it was the Grade 1 Champagne for two-year-old colts at Belmont, going a one-turn mile.  Earlier in the day a guy had shown me his winning exacta at Belmont and he said, "who's your best at Belmont today?"  I pointed out that I really liked Havana in the Champagne.  I explained he would NOT be the favorite, and while I had a lot of respect for the other two top contenders, I pointed out how much Havana resembled champion Uncle Mo from 2010.  Like that one, Havana had broken his maiden with a 102 Beyer going 5 1/2 furlongs, then waited for the one-mile Champagne.  He won that and then was much the best in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to secure 2-year-old of the year in 2010.  Well, as they were loading into the gate the same guy was there, and he said, "this is your horse."  I agreed, and then he said he had looked at the other two and could not go by the favorite.  Well, Havana had been 7/1 when I bet my $20.  He was 6/1 with five minutes to post time and I was counting my nearly $150!  Then 4/1 as they neared the gate - ok, I'll take $100.  Then 7/2 as they loaded and 3/1 as they were let go.  Instead of gunning to the front jockey Irad Ortiz patiently stalked the long-shot leader through the far turn.  He saved all the ground and as heads began to turn for home he accelerated and quickly Havana was four in front!  At the furlong marker he looked long gone and the favorite was not making any progress.  But Honor Code, the third of the three I had pointed out to my "friend" was rallying EIGHT wide.  He had won last time out coming from an amazing twenty-two lengths behind at the top of the stretch, and he was gobbling up ground with massive strides.  I looked like I was safely home, but it was close on the wire, but without a doubt the winner! 

Havana paid $7.20 so I collected nearly $75! I cashed my ticket, ten made my final set of bets downstairs and walked outside to film the recap video.  When I got home and watched the replays (at halftime of the mighty Florida Gators win over Arkansas on prime-time ESPN2!) I was disappointed when Ballistic Sue was a fade-to-last 9th at Keeneland; Magic Daddy was a nowhere to be found 10th at Santa Anita; and most disappointed when my "BEST" of the day at Indiana Downs, Fiftyshadesofhay - the Grade 1 Black Eyed Susan winner, and most recently runner-up to Princess of Sylmar who exited that race to beat reigning queen of North American racing Royal Delta - ran third as the overwhelming 2/5 favorite.  She took a clear lead into the stretch but had nothing left to finish the race.  ANOTHER huge disappointment.  Lost the finale at Belmont on the turf when With Exultation was a late-running third.  I almost had a big chance to get a lot of my money back when horse-for-the-course Mr. Bossy Pants was long gone into the lane at Santa Anita.  He loves downhill turf course, having posted SIX wins at that distance, but as he ran through the lane he was running two steps to the outside for every one step to the wire.  3rd at a bit 6/1 and I'd doubled the bet.....that was at least $70 missed :( 

I finally had another winner when Bob Baffert's Power Broker splashed his way to the front late in the Grade 2 Indiana Derby and held on by two.  He was a generous 8/5, so I collected nearly $30. 

Two more huge disappointments followed at Santa Anita.  Executiveprivilege, a multiple Grade 1 winner as a two-year-old was returning in a listed stakes, the L.A. Woman, and her closing style looked to really be set up with multiple speed types.  Evenly at 2/1 for fourth.  Then my co-best of the day in an allowance spot, Key Vista finished dead last  While it's true he was coming off a huge 102 win in his maiden score, and could easily regress today.  He looked EASILY quickest to the front and he had fired a best-of-51 bullet work in a sizzling :58.2 for five furlongs.  Add in Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens and I thought - as did nearly everyone else as he left the gate at 2/5 - he was tons the best.  He dueled to the far turn and simply stopped.  But, the day ended on a positive note.  The final big prep for the Breeders' Cup Sprint came here in the 9th at Santa Anita, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint.  I thought it was pretty obvious that Points Offthebench, the last-out winner of the Grade 1 Bing Crosby, was the most likely winner.  Partly because I anticipated him being a short price I only doubled the bet.  When I cranked up the replay video I saw he was not only every bit of the 4/1 program odds, but had floated up to an amazing 9/2!  Hall of Fame Mike Smith topped off a huge day by gliding him to the front-runner in mid-stretch and the coaxing him home under a hand ride.  T

he prices came up.....a big $11.20 for a $2 wager, so I'm cashing out for nearly $60!  He could be the Breeders' Cup Sprint favorite off these two very impressive Grade 1 wins!  So, as I said at the beginning, TEN big wins, and the last race big score left me feeling "OK" about the day, but I won't soon forget these Grade 1 winners who all went down to defeat for me today:

Breeders' Cup Champion Groupie Doll
European Group 1 winner Say
Horse-of-the-Year Wise Dan
Multiple Grade 1 winner Obviously

Grade 1 Black Eyed Susan winner Fiftyshadesofhay

Multiple Grade 1 winner Executiveprivilege

 

Check out the video highlights of the day and the entire three-day weekend here:



Friday October 4

Opening Day At Keeneland!

Two years ago today on Opening Day at Keeneland I was in Lexington for the event.  I really like playing the Keeneland Spring and Fall meets as it's such a unique surface and the meet itself is such a "boutique" meet with horses coming from all over, all different surfaces.  It is a real handicapping challenge!  Their biggest weekend in the fall is always Opening Weekend when there are three consecutive days of multiple graded stakes with most of them being "Win and You're In!" Breeders' Cup Challenge races.  Today was no exception. 

Of the ten races on the card, I had selections in five of them, and only two of them warranted an added money play.  In fact originally my "Best" of the day was just a double bet......but as you'll soon see, that changed!  I handicapped the card as I normally do when I have a handicapping project, listing my top three selections.  In the opener my top choice, even though I passed the race, was on the lead in deep stretch, only to be caught by a 19-1 longshot.  One of my two double investments was in the second where I liked Christiesborntorun in a claiming event.  She was plunging in class and being sent out first off the claim by trainer Michael Maker for owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  This team has been deadly all year, but most especially at the Spring Keeneland meet where both set records for wins.  The crowd bet her down to 6/5, but she was next-to-last down the back stretch and her late rally (going just six furlongs) was belated, only 4th.  Long shots ruled again with the winner at 10/1, runner-up at 50/1, and the show horse at 20/1!  In both the third and fourth I passed.......my top selection was 4th a 9/5 in the former (behind a 5/1 winner) and my long shot in the latter was last at 19/1 behind the winner at 5/1.  As I watched on TVG the analysts were now commenting several times that we were nearly half way through the card without a single favorite winning.  This did not bode well for my betting selection in the 5th where I picked Chocolate Ride in a MSW going 1 1/8th miles.  He'd broken slowly but rallied to be 4th in his debut; today he was entered after posting abest of 84 bullet work.  He set the pace into the stretch, dueled to the last fifty yards and finally gave way to a 9/2 winner.  In the 6th I again had a price play, Lonesome Street who'd won a Grade 2 here in 2012 with a top speed figure - also owned by the Ramseys, trained by Maker.  He made a bold move on the turn at 8/1, then was even through the lane as the paid $10 and the runner-up was a huge 14/1.  The 7th was a wide-open turf event that I had no clues or hunches on - the winner paid $30.60!  In the first of the two graded stakes today, the Grade 3 Phoenix my selection, Reload, was bet down from the program odds of 10/1 to 5/1, but he never was in it, eighth.  My fourth pick - I listed four for this race - had won this race last year and was 4/1 in the program.  He won at an overlaid 12-1!  Still no favorites in the winner's circle! 

This trend was NOT good for me as I was certain I'd have the favorite in the Grade 1 Alciabides - not only a BC Challenge race, but a two-turn race over the synthetic main track for two-year-old fillies.  Fourteen entered, and like I mentioned at the top, they were all from different tracks.....some stretch-out sprinters off dirt wins; some turf runners; some synthetic runners from both sprints and routes.....but none from here, and none having raced at this distance with the short run to the alternate finish line that Keeneland sets for their 8 1/2 furlong races.  This is important because it means it is VERY difficult to close from far back; and nearly always it is hard to win on the lead.  Well, my pick should not have that problem with her running style.  My pick was My Conquistadory.  She had debuted in a one mile turf event at Woodbine.  That - going long on the grass - is difficult for any first time starter.  But get this, for her debut her connections entered her in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes - a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" race!  And even more amazing......the Summer is for two-year-old COLTS!  In spite of all these obstacles, My Conquistadory stalked the leaders and drew off by daylight UNDER A HAND RIDE!  Impressive!  So today she was back with fillies, but she was going from turf to synthetic and going from a one-turn mile to a two-turn route.  Still, I thought her ability to sit just behind the leaders was key......and her works over the Woodbine main track, also synthetic seemed to indicate she could handle the surface switch.  Finally, my handicapping angle was to think like the owners........why would I send a graded stakes winning juvenile, who already had a Breeders' Cup berth locked up, into a Grade 1, main track event - much less ship all the way from Toronto to Lexington, Kentucky unless......I thought she was THAT GOOD!  So, she was the bet, and worthy of a double bet - no more with all these "new" things to overcome as well as a full field of fourteen who's connections thought THEY were good enough to win. 

As I watched the pre-race analysis of the card before race 1, TVG host and analyst Todd Schrupp narrated a short feature on the one horse to bet against, and the one horse to bet on at Keeneland today.  My Conquistadory was his horse to bet, but what caught my attention was when he said, on national television over the replay of her stretch run in the Summer....."I tweeted today, and now I will say it to our national viewing audience, My Conquistadory is the best juvenile filly in North America!"  Now, I know Schrupp from way back when he was the Calder paddock analyst and he's always looking for the price play.  So to not only make this national declaration on social media and on-air, about a favorite really made an impact on me.  So I doubled my double investment.....she's now "Prime Time" for me!  So, you can see how the lack of favorite winners was a concern.  She was drawn in post 7, a good draw.......no chance of being squeezed on the rail or having to use speed to hold position, and not too wide as to lose ground into the turn. 

The gates opened and the 4-5-6 horses bore out while the 8-9-10 all broke slightly inward.  My Conquistadory was immediately 13th of 14 before they hit the first turn.  NOT GOOD!  Not only is this not her running style, but closing from the back is NOT what we want.  Still, the rider patiently took her to the rail to save ground through the turn.  He began to move up as they ran down the backstretch.....BLOCKED and CHECKED!  That about ends every chance I thought; but he got her in gear again by sliding off the rail and was splitting horses approaching the far turn.....CHECKED again!  Wow :(  Still, she started to accelerate again, but once again the seam closed and he had to jerk the reins and stop on her halfway through the turn!  Then an opening appeared.  My Conquistadory accelerated and was quickly 6th, 5th, and then 4th and ready to swing wide out of the turn and into the lane.  But the outside horse seemed to drift so he shot the gap between horses and within 20 yards she had collared the leader; one more shift into high gear and she was GONE in spite of the short run to the wire, UNDER A HAND RIDE and drawing off as you please.  HUGELY IMPRESSIVE!  If she takes to "real dirt" (the Santa Anita surface) she is one of the best bets on the BC weekend! 

Best of all, she'd left the gate as the 6/5 favorite.....with my $20 investment I got back $44 and for the day despite going 1-for-5, I had collected $44 on my $45 investment! I'll take the $1 loss on a day when NINE of ten races were won up long shots ($16 winner in the finale, my top non-betting pick ran second....as the favorite!).  Tomorrow is a card FULL of super stakes races, including the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile featuring Wise Dan and the Grade 2 TCA Stakes for older fillies & mares featuring Groupie Doll!

Watch the video!



Saturday September 28

It's SUPER SATURDAY!

Today I was in Ohio visiting my family.  The started bright and early as we headed out to southwest Cincinnati - about a 2 hour drive from my Mom's Columbus home - to see my two nephews square off in a college football contest as Mount St. Joseph College hosted Bluffton College.  Before the game we tailgate with my brother and his wife, posed for a "brothers photo" with our niece and then headed into the stadium to watch the boys play. 

It was a gorgeous afternoon for college football with the temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s and just a hint of color in the fall leaves.  Mount St. Joseph was clearly the better team and the older of my nephew, Eric - pictured on the left - got a lot of playing time for the home team Lions who won 52-28.  Younger Ryan, just a freshman - pictured at right - did not get in (though I thought he should have considering the score).  We got to spend about a half hour with them after the game before heading back to Columbus. 

It was a little after 7 pm when we got back to Columbus, and I headed to the computer to watch the replays from Belmont's "Super Saturday" card.  There were six graded stakes that were all Breeders' Cup "Win And You're In!" Challenge races.  I originally made betting selections in all six, but after watching the DRF Preview videos I restructured my bets and passed on the Grade 1 Flower Bowl.  My "Bet of the Day" was in the first race on my selection sheet, the Grade 1 Beldame which featured the showdown between two-time Breeders' Cup champion Royal Delta against three-year-old champion Princess of Sylmar.  On the one hand I thought that this race WAS the Breeders' Cup to Princess of Sylmar who's connections had said this was her final race of the year; but on the other hand she'd never seen or beaten anyone of Royal Delta's talent.  But as they broke out of the gate Royal Delta broke a step slowly and a longshot gunned to the lead.  Not that she cannot rate off a leader, but it seemed she was uncomfortable tracking and Princess of Sylmar was right behind her.  As the came out of the turn Royal Delta glided to the lead, but she did not lengthen her stride like she usually does and Princess of Sylmar collared her and ran right by her without much resistance from the champion.  Wow.....not the start to the day of racing I'd anticipated!  But I came right back in the Grade 1 Kelso when Graydar returned off a long layoff to wire the Grade 2 Kelso Handicap. 

This should set him up nicely for a Breeders' Cup race.  I personally think the Dirt Mile would be a better spot than taking on the BC Classic.  Next up was the Grade 1 Vosburgh.  I was not a big fan of any of the east-coast sprinters.  I thought it was a great spot for a "fresh face" and there was a shipper from California that fit the bill.  Private Zone had shown high quality speed in all of his last few races.  The problem was he surrendered late in his last three graded sprints to Smiling Tiger three back, to Sahara Sky two back, and to Jimmy Creed one back.  He'd come off the shelf to wire a listed stakes at Del Mar, but to me this looked like a bridge to today's race.  And more importantly I didn't think that he'd face any runner with the quality of those three sprinters.  Right to the front he went, and in deep stretch he was collared by the talented, but inconsistent Justin Phillip.  But, inside the final 16th he surged back on the rail and WON! 

Best of all, (1) he went off at a very generous 7/2 and paid $9.20; and (2) when I restructured my bets and dropped my pick in the Flower Bowl I'd doubled the investment here!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Collected nearly $50!  Next up was the aforementioned Flower Bowl and my top pick won as the favorite!  In the 9th at Belmont I went against Little Mike - didn't I write multiple times that I would NOT do this at any time this year?  Well, owners Ken & Sarah Ramsey had not one but two Grade 1 winners in here - Big Blue Kitten who'd just won the Grade 1 Sword Dancer AND Right Solution who'd just won the Grade 1 Arlington Million.  And just to be certain that Little Mike would not steal it, they entered Joe's Blazing Aaron - a confirmed front-runner - to set a fast pace and set the table for the two closers.  In addition there were two others to the inside that had speed, AND Little Mike was on the outside.  Add in his two races this summer were both really off, and I went against him.  As the field headed to the first turn Little Mike was wide and in fifth.  I was thinking how smart I was.  Both my horses were reserved with the stable mate sailing along at a fast clip to set everything up.  But when heads turned for home the first to rally was Little Mike!  Big Blue Kitten was flying up the rail, but had to check at he furlong marker.  Real Solution was flying on the outside. But he flattened out and Big Blue Kitten surged on the rail - PHOTO FINISH! 

You have to know that Little Mike won, and paid $16.80.  Wow, again?  Now, what to do in the Breeders' Cup?  In the featured Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup it looked Cross Traffic might wire the field, but I had thought he looked "distance limited" when he won the Grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga.  I wasn't wild about any of them, but I thought the two three-year-olds did NOT look good; I thought Ron the Greek might be over the top and so by process of elimination I backed Flat Out who'd won 5 of 6 starts here.  Well, Cross Traffic walked out of the gate and never ran; the three year olds did not produce; but Flat Out was a dull third.  The winner, Ron the Greek who freaked as he had in the Sunshine Millions at Gulfstream when I was there, and he scored the upset at a huge 21/1!  So as I went into Mom's living room to watch the Ohio State Buckeyes play on national TV I was 2-for-5 at Belmont and even (thanks to Private Zone) on the bottom line. 

At the end of the first quarter I was able to get back online and watch the replays from Santa Anita's Breeders' Cup Preview day.  I could not find anyone to back in their two juvenile races, but I did have pick in the three big races for older.  In the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive going a mile and a quarter on the turf it came down to Marketing Mix and Tiz Flirtatious.  The former had edged the latter the last time they met, but then had run very dully in the Grade 1 Beverly D on Arlington Million Day while the latter had been ultra-impressive in winning the Grade 2 John Mabee.  I decided I might get a better price on Marketing Mix and IF she returned to form she'd win again. It was a great race, and a photo finish......yes, I was second by the narrowest of margins.  But, in the Grade 1 Zenyatta I was back in the winner's circle.  There weren't any superstars, and there looked to be at least three that wanted the front end.  But with Hall of Fame rider Gary Stephens on the three-year-old Beholder, who was breaking inside all the other speed, I thought she might run a big race ad steal it.  I was spot on and she was very impressive winning in hand!  The crowd had also supported her chances and she went off at 8/5 - which was a good price on her, but I thought in her first start against older I'd get a better price. 

In the Grade 1 Awesome Again, the local prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic, the top handicap runner in the country Game On Dude was passing the race.  I backed Mucho Macho Man, who had Gary Stephens as well.  He was an east coast based horse, and has been an also ran for two years now.  His trainer is a "good feel" story, but he just has not won races.  Typical was his career best run in the BC Classic here last fall, but he couldn't get past upset winner Fort Larned.  But, I thought Stephens might make the difference, and the fact that he'd been sent out west to prep a couple of weeks ago.  Friday night I'd watched the DRF preview videos and both Mike Beer and Dan Illman said nearly the same that I felt about Mucho Macho Man and how he'd be hard to support at a short price.  I had been intrigued by Bob Baffert's lightly raced Take Control and both the guys thought he had a chance at a price.  I switched my bet (and cut back on the investment).  Well, Mucho Macho Man WAS the favorite and Take Control was a very nice 7/1.  But Mucho Macho Man won in a scintillating effort, just blowing away the field.  Sigh....... had it, and let it get away. 

The last two races of the day were at Churchill for their "Downs After Dark" program.  The first was the Homecoming Classic.  A newly created race for this first-time September meet that had been drawn up to maybe lure any big handicap horses who did not want to tackle the "big boys" in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  Well, one such horse was Fort Larned, the BC Classic defending champ.  He'd been a disappointment in three starts this year with his only big effort coming here, under the lights of "Downs After Dark-White Party" when we'd been on track. 

I thought he looked TONS the best even if he wasn't himself, and he was the lone speed.  I knew I wouldn't make any money, but like many races in the fall, he was an obvious winner and would help "pad my stats" by adding another winner to the list.  The only thing that did NOT go according to the way I'd seen the race was that he didn't draw off with authority.  While jockey Brian Hernandez might have had him under wraps to "save" him for the Classic it was a bit disconcerting that two prices horses were gaining quickly on him through the final furlong.  But in the end he was a clear winner and I had my fourth win of the day. 

I had one race left, and as is so often the case, my profit for the day rested on the chances of General Election in the Grade 3 Jefferson Cup.  When I looked at the race it just seemed so obvious.  There were at least three if not five horses who wanted the lead.  There was one legitimate closer, General Election.  Duh.  And the fact that he'd won the Grade 3 American Derby at Arlington this summer illustrated he had the class to score.  As Mike Beer said in the DRF video, "......is it just so easy, so obvious, that he's the winner?......"  Then he went on to say he'd bet against him to get a "better price."  And that in a nutshell sums up my handicapping principles.  I pick the winner and let the "value players" shoot against themselves.  Apparently a lot of handicappers felt this way because instead of being a legitimate 6/5 General Election was allowed to leave the gate at a huge 2/1.  It was close, but he had all the momentum rallying down the middle of the course and scored!  

WHOOO HOOO!  The $6.20 payoff led to my collecting $31.00 and made me a winner on the day.  I'd won with five of ten selections - an impressive 50% and a clear profit for the night in spite of missing with my "Bet of the Day" on Royal Delta.  Add in wins by Mt. St. Joseph, the Florida Gators, and my son Jeff's Houston Baptist Huskies and it was a delightful way to end the month! 

For the month I had one of the BEST months I've had in a long, long time! 

112 Selections / 45 WINS (40.1%) - ROI $2.56 for every $2 bet

Here's to hoping the successful fall campaign continues all the way through the Breeders' Cup.  I'm already looking forward to next weekend where it will be "Fallstars Weekend" at Keeneland!

Wednesday September 25

Super Saturday Is Coming!

The Reaction To "The Dress!"

I am so excited.....(a) to be going to visit my family in Ohio, (b) for Super Saturday / Breeders' Cup Preview Day on Saturday, and (c) the great reaction of my Facebook friends to my posting about the surprise I gave Kim last Friday.

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday September 21



Pennsylvania Derby Day

What a G - R - E - A - T Day!

Just consider these stats.......

My Parx Selections:  8 / 3 - 1 - 2   Profit:  $46.00

My Facebook Selctions:  7 / 5 - 0 - 1   Profit:  $140.00

Overall:  45  17 - 4 - 7   Profit:  $150.75

 

It was a great day to be at the races for sure!  Lots of stories, so let's get right to it!  As I said on the web page, it was a most unusual day, not even considering the racing results.  I just don't go to the races on college football Saturdays.  The rare exception is if my Florida Gators are not playing, or are playing an opponent that won't provide much competition.  I never go when they play a big SEC game, much less a game against an arch rival.  But on this particular Saturday they played mid-afternoon against their arch-rivals Tennessee!  But, when I looked at entries and stakes races for the weekend, the Saturday slate of races was far superior to the Sunday lineup.  So I decided to DVR the Gator game and handicap.  I started on Wednesday by handicapping the full Parx card, and posting Voki animated video analysis of the four stakes races.  One of the best trips of my retirement was last September's adventure to Philadelphia for the Pennsylvania Derby, and I guess I was hoping to recreate a little of that.  Then I saw that Laurel was running a stakes filled card so Thursday I got their past performances and handicapped their card.  By the time I was done I had selections at Parx, Laurel, Calder, Gulfstream, Belmont, Churchill, and Arlington.  I wanted to go to Calder because I feel their days are numbered (and it's a closer drive), but I hesitated because with rain on Thursday I knew they would come off the turf, while Gulfstream would not.  But in the end I had enough picks on track to go to Calder, and THAT turned out to be a good choice!

 

The day opened at an early 12:25 with the first at Parx.  My pick was Nathan Ridge, a past veteran of the Calder racing scene, but now he was stabled in New Jersey.  His trainer, Jorge Navarro was winning 47% at Parx and the horse was a 40-time....yes FORTY....finisher in the exacta from 83 starts.  And he was a 10x winner at the distance.  He stalked the pace and drew off handily to win!  Off to a winning start.  I doubled my bet at Churchill on Two Steppin' Tango  where she was the only winner at the one-turn mile distance, and a 10x winner overall.  She went off a fair 2/1 but was a distant third.  The opener at Belmont saw King Henry dropped dramatically in price, but was a distant ninth.  Wow.  But I got my first win at Gulfstream win Pinafra was TONS the best as the favorite.  Here's a good example of handicapping a bad race with a good angle.  Pinafara had a poor overall record of 4-for-48, ouch!  But here was the key.  He was a miserable 1-for-33 at all other distances and 3-for-15 at today's distance.  Obviously he was well-meant today, and he drew off with authority at 7/5.  I was second at 8/5 with a double investment on the Jersey Shore with PJ's Superego and then won my second race in as many selections at Parx when 2-year-old maiden Kid Brown staggered home at 3/2.  But I knew the objection and INQUIRY sign would come up.  He'd ducked out, but seemingly didn't bother anyone, but in deep stretch he veered in and appeared to bother the third place runner.  But when I saw the head-on view I thought I had a chance to keep the win.  He did duck in, but he ducked from like the 4-path to the 2-path leaving a clear lane for the other horse to continue up the rail.  He and his jockey were simply intimidated.  But the stewards took him down :(  Before the decision was made I had to make my own decision locally when Money For Memories was my pick in the 3rd at Calder.  The race was slated for the turf, going a mile.  He'd made significant improvement stretching out from a dirt sprint to a turf route.  And today trainer Kirk Ziadie sent him back to the grass.  Ziadie, for Team Calabrese, was winning an amazing 80% win rate at Calder.  But today, with management moving the races off the turf, in spite of the dry weather, sigh....., I couldn't decide about sticking with the pick.  But in the end, I figured if a trainer winning 4-out-of-every-5 races felt he should run, who was I to go against him.  Stuck with my double investment and he was an easy winner!

 

Less than ten minutes later I had my first selection on the Laurel card, and it was a stakes race, the Laurel Futurity going 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  I liked Yes I'm Lucky who had already won three of four with two stakes wins.  He had run second in a Grade 3 on the dirt last out so the return to the grass and the drop from graded company looked to make him tough today.  He wired the field easily!  WHOOO HOOOO!   I thought I was ready to rolll, but over the next hour I lost five in a row including two double investments and two triple investments!  In the Arlington opener I thought Cardiac Arrest would steal it on the front end, but he never made the lead.  Sunnysider was my pick at Belmont in a Maiden Special turf spot.  I wrote I was concerned about trainer H. Allen Jerkens having an 0-for-32 MSW record, but the horse looked best and he had top rider Javier Castellano on board....4th at 3/2.  Iwillneversaynever looked much the best at Gulfstreamfor Team Calabrese.  Trainer Kirk Ziadie was winning 47% in Hallandale and 35% with turnback runners.  Distant 5th as the 9/5 favorite.  Wash Park was everyone's top pick at Churchill and he went off as the 8/5 favorite.  He sat off the pace and was making what looked like a winning move just as they turned for home when he tripped over his own feet and tossed the rider.  Wow.....Shining Copper was an upset pick at 5/1 in a Parx allowance, but he was a non-threatening 6th. 

 

When I stepped up to the window off this streak, I had six races in quick succession, four of them being added money investments.  And when I reached into my bankroll to turn over the cash I was left with a few $1 bills, a single $5 bill, and a single $100 bill.  I thought to myself, "the money is running low, I (a) hope I have enough to last the day and (b) I need to cash some tickets in this sequence!"  I had a triple investment, my "best" at Calder with Notimetokil.  He was having a great 2013 season having run first or second in 11 of 12 starts.  But my concern was he only had two wins.  BUT....both those wins came in the last three starts.  He was sent off at odds-on and cantered home by double digit open lengths! 

 

At Belmont I thought the sprint was evenly matched but that Frazil would be a good price with a bullet work and dropping in class.  He was a fair 9/2 and I doubled the bet - 5th.  Grrrrrr.  But then it was time for another stakes race at Laurel, the Jameela Stakes.  It was another turf sprint going six furlongs.  Madame Giry was my pick.  She had ripped off five straight turf sprint wins, including a couple of stakes last fall.  But she was 0-for-3 in 2013 until her last when she won a $100K turf sprint stakes at Saratoga.  I thought this signaled a return to form, and with plenty of speed signed on here, I thought her closing style would play well.  When the field turned for home she was still far back and between horses.  But she swung out at the furlong mark with a full head of steam and inhaled the front runners.  She forged to the lead with 150 yards to go and appeared a certain winner, but the inside runner was not done......PHOTO finish!  I thought I'd held on, but I had to wait for the OFFICIAL sign......finally it was posted and I had my second stakes win in Maryland! 

 

The double investment returned nearly $20 to my pockets!  I missed at Gulfstream and at Monmouth.  Time for the 6th at Parx and both halves of the Jorge Navarro entry (remember he's the 47% winning trainer) would have been the favorite on their own merits.  With both running I wasn't surprised they were 1/9 with five minutes to post.  I planned to double the bet, but now I considered upping the ante. Then I considered my tenuous money situation and held back. The good news was the price floated up to a fair 1/2, the bad news was they ran 3rd and fifth!  Whew, glad I didn't step the bet up!  The sixth at Calder offered another Team Calabrese - Kirk Ziadie runner.  Fly South had been my pick last Sunday in a slightly tougher claiming race, but scratched for this spot.  I doubled the bet, but was mildly concerned when with five minutes to post he was the third choice on the board.  I looked at the other favorites and thought I had the right horse.  At post time his odds dropped and he was the favorite as they left the gate.  But it was a three-way pace battle all the way through the far turn. He finally cleared turning for home and I thought he'd draw off.  As I filmed from the rail he looked clear but here came a closer!  It was close, but I still had at least a half length lead to spare on the wire!  I'm 3-for-3 at Calder! 

 

I'm hanging in there with my money, but then lost another four in a row.....Poison Apple as the 1/2 favorite in an Arlington turf sprint, but was second.  So Outspoken looked to be long gone as the speed of a turf route at Belmont.....failed to get to the front, 7th.  The Best Glacier was running for top owner-trainer team of Michael Maker-Ken & Sarah Ramsey.  Fourth at 2/1 at Churchill.  And then in the Jersey Girl Stakes at Monmouth, Ima Jersey Girl (seemed destined to win this listed stakes wouldn't you think with that name?) was dead last as the 4/5 favorite.  The only good news from that selection as I had the minimum on her. 

 

The day turned over the next eight races.  I won at Belmont when I picked Request to take down this one-mile turf maiden special for 2-year-olds.  The field was made up of mostly juveniles who'd already lost, but Request was debuting for top young trainer Chad Brown with top rider Javier Castellano.  He was a $400K Keeneland purchase so somebody thought he had ability and Castellano was winning 32% for Brown.  He was wide on the turn for home and it was a three way stretch drive and officially a photo......but he was the winner on the wire! 

 

I ran 6th at Gulfstream in spite of Dreaming of Danny's double Beyer advantage and then was a good second at a solid 3/1 at Churchill with Caliparty.  At Monmouth it as an entry level allowance on the turf and I liked Can't Explain.  She'd run second in the Grade 3 Schylerville Stakes on Opening Day 2012 at Saratoga and had failed to show that kind of talent on the main track, so today she stretched out on the turf and dropped in class.  With top Jersey rider Joe Bravo - who excels especially on the grass - taking the mount I thought she looked solid.  And she blew them away at 4/5!  It was then time for the first of four stakes races at Parx on the Pennsylvania Derby card.  It was the Alphabet Soup on the turf.  I had won this race last September when my pick, Philly Ace had won a photo finish from Road Hog.  Well, Philly Ace was not in the field today but Road Hog was.  He'd seen far superior foes than today's rivals and had won the Maryland Million Turf last year. He was a fair 9/5 as the favorite and I tripled the bet.  He stalked the leaders and wore down the front runners inside the furlong marker, but then here came a late runner......it was close, but I was the winner! 

 

My triple investment netted me nearly $45 and I was starting on a big-time money roll!  Remember my first winner at Calder....off the turf and I stuck with her?  Well in the 8th at Calder my co-best of the day was with Determinato who looked to wire this turf sprint.  He looked tough on both surfaces, but his Beyers on the turf were far superior on the inner course, so I listed him as a "Turf Only" bet.  But when I made the sequence of bets, I stuck with him and tripled the bet.  With five minutes to post he, unlike Money Memories, was NOT the favorite, and he was NOT a Kirk Ziadie runner.  I looked a who was getting bet and who was still in the race.  I noted my comment, "Turf Only" and made the decision to cash in my ticket before the race.  He dropped down to 6/5 and favoritism as they got into the gate.  When he didn't make the front I was patting myself on the back for passing the race.  But he tracked the leader and wore him down to win!  I had gotten a refund on a ticket that would have returned $33 for my $15 bet.  Sigh....so it goes.  After running third at 3/1 over the Arlington turf when With A Twist didn't fire for former student Rosemary Hoemeister and Starship Truffles was a dull 3rd at 2/1 in Gulfstream's Musical Romance Stakes I had my best story/winner of the day.........

 

It was the 7th at Laurel, the Lady Baltimore Stakes going 8 1/2 furlongs on the grass.  As I mentioned earlier, I handicapped the Laurel card on Thursday.  That's significant because two days prior to race day the program odds were not available.  So I downloaded the Daily Racing Form's "graded entries."  For years I've had issues with their morning line.  For starters they ALWAYS list any "also eligibles" as the favorites.  Go figure.  And then more often than not their odds are WAY off on the legitimate contenders; so I take them with a grain of salt.  In this particular spot the field looks fairly evenly matched, but one filly draws my attention, Strathnaver.  This filly had limited success in Europe, then came to the US last fall.  She promptly won an entry level allowance and then the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes at the tough Keeneland Fall meet. She was coming out of the Grade 1 Beverly D on Arlington Million Day for this listed stakes.  I was familiar with this because in the Beverly D she was my top pick and left the gate as the 5/2 second choice.  She ran poorly, so perhaps she'd not be the favorite, but with a graded win, being lightly raced, and dropping out of a Grade 1 where she was well-bet you knew she'd be one of he top choices.  But the DRF listed her at 30/1!  Really?  I even wrote in my comments that this was never going to happen.  Fast forward to Saturday afternoon.  I'd had an issue at Calder with Laurel already.  When I won the second, the Laurel Futurity, the race was official and I'd seen the payoffs but the results "weren't in he system" and I couldn't cash my ticket about ten minutes afterwards.  Interestng.  They were going in the gate for the third at Laurel, still couldn't cash. They were heading to post for the fourth, still "not in the system!"  But finally I got the money.  OK, so now it's the 7th and I make my bet with a sequence of three or four other selections.  I look up at the big screens in the simulcast area and the two big screens that had been showing Laurel had now been switched to west coast tracks.  I went around the corner to a small, old TV mounted in the wall, but it too was now broadcasting the Southern California Barrett's races.  I go into the simulcast center theatre - nope.  Beginning to panic, I walk all around the facility and finally find a small TV on the backside of the "other" simulcast are showing Laurel races.  The color is off and picture is not sharp, but it IS Laurel.  So I look up at the odds and I thought Strathnaver was #9, but the #9 on the odds board is 12/1!  I must have the wrong number, I think.  I don't have the past performances (remember I'd handicapped on Thursday, so they were digital on my laptop).  So I opened my phone and went to the entries for today.  The #9 flashed up to 13/1 as I opened the program.  Race 7 at Laurel, the Lady Baltimore Stakes......#9-Strathnaver is listed at 9/2 on the program.  I look up.....it IS the 7th race, my ticket says the 7th at Laurel.  I have the #9 on my ticket, and now she's 12/1 as they approach the gate!  Am I that far off?  I don't think so.  They break from the gate and five of them lead the pack around the far turn, but Strathnaver is sitting about four off the lead, saving ground in a good position, about where I thought she'd be.  My heart starts to pound as I realize I might have something here.  As the field moves around the far turn Strathnaver begins to accelerate, comes off the rail, and is clear four wide with a chance to run down the leader.  She begins to accelerate and I am standing by a very quiet handicapper who's intently watching.  I next to never say anything or do anything but watch.  But as Strathnaver begins gaining on the leader at the furlong marker I start pleading quietly out loud, "come on with the 9, come on 9......come on 9!"  In the shadow of the wire she puts her nose in front, but the favorite is flying to her outside....PHOTO FINISH!!!!!!!  If you'd asked me I would have said she won.  And even though the TV says "Photo Finish" the camera is following #9-Strathnaver around.  I turn to the other guy and remark, "she was 9/2 in the program, but went off at 12/1!"  He gives me a slight smile but little reaction.  I wait for what seems like an eternity before finally the "Unofficial Order" is listed -

1st place:  #9 - Strathnaver!  OH MY!  And at final odds of 12/1!

 

It goes official and the payout is $26.80 for a $2 bet.  Did I mention I had DOUBLED THE BET!  Ten dollars to win means I'll cash for $134.00!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!  I am going to have a winning day no matter what is my first thought!  It just adds to the "uniqueness" of the day as I count up and Strathnaver is now my 11th win!  I had just recently been considering how my handicapping was going......my first concern was that it seems I just can't have any "big winning" days where I cash for a lot of winners, like more than a dozen; and I was considering how long it's been since I had a real price play winner.  Now today, I've got both!  You can see my delight in my expression as I held my winning ticket....

 

I lost my next three, including a double and a triple investment, but frankly I was still floating on "Cloud 9" with my $134 winning ticket in my pocket.  WOW.  Oblahlah was 10th and last at Churchill - not having a good day under the Twin Spires - at 9/5; Partyallnightlong looked much the best in the NJ Breeders Handicap at Monmouth.  He was 4/5 and was a distant 7th.  And then Clearly Now was a late-running second in Parx's Grade 3 Gallant Bob sprint stakes.  I had picked him because last September I lost this race when a closer ran down my front runner, and I thought that would be the winning style today.  Sure enough it was and my pick was closing fast but not as fast as locally-based City of Weston, who I had looked at, but figured he didn't "class up."  He was a shocking 30-1!  It was now time for my "BEST of the Day" at Laurel.  It was the Laurel Dash going six furlongs on the turf.  14-time winner Ben's Cat figured to be odds-on and a near-certain winner.  But I read his connections were thinking of running him in the $350K DeFrancis Dash on the main track later.  His trainer publicly remarked that finishing second in this dirt sprint (and note that Ben's Cat had won with five of six dirt sprint tries) would earn more money than finishing first in the $100K Laurel Dash.  On Friday I read they were 80% sure they would run on the dirt, so I switched my selection Friday night and printed my selection sheet.  But Saturday morning I read that the connections reversed their course and were running on the turf.  When I read the quote, "to pass up the turf race is like seeing money laying on the ground and not picking it up" I thought, that's a bit bold and sounds really too confident. But still, I made Ben's Cat my prime-time "Bet of the Day" in Maryland.  The TV picture was really poor now, but part of that was because it was now raining pretty good there.  Unlike Calder where we were off the turf because it rained TWO DAYS AGO, here at Laurel where it was raining TODAY, we were still ON the turf.  Ben's Cat broke sharply from post 10 and got a good stalking spot.  Coming out of the turn a long-shot leader emerged and Ben's Cat made his move about five wide.  But as they ran through the lane, with Ben's Cat slowly wearing down the leader, the front runner was running two steps to the outside for every one step forward which forced Ben's Cat to do the same.  At the 16th pole I began to think that his connections had been too confident and he wasn't going to get there - especially as they looked like they would run into the OUTSIDE fence before they hit the wire! But in the final strides the remarkable Ben's Cat - who was a "Horse-for-the-Course" at Laurel with a local record of 6/5-1-0 - surged to the front!  He had been 1/9 until shortly before post time; then floated to fair 1/5.  When he went to 2/5 I was very happy.  But as they left the gate he was an inflated 3/5! 

 

He paid $3.20 and I cashed for $32.00 with my "BEST BET" ticket.  I ran a distant 6th at Belmont and then was 4th at 5/2 in Churchill's Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes.  In the next 45 minutes I went on my strongest run of the day...........

 

At Arlington it was a first-level allowance on the turf.  He's Dann Good looked like the horse to beat, coming from off the pace, and the crowd made him the 6/5 favorite.  As they turned for home he was sitting a perfect trip, but was trapped on the rail.  You could see the jockey was desperate to get off the fence, but was blocked in by not one but two runners to his outside.  A narrow opening appeared on the rail and He's Dann Good began to surge through.  Just in time he got to the front and WON!  My double investment resulted in a better than $20 payoff with my 13th winner of the day!  Less than five minutes later it was my "BET OF THE DAY" in the Grade 1 Cotillion at Parx.  This $1 million race had produced my "Best" last year and today I thought Close Hatches would not only be my "best" at Parx, but on the entire selection sheet.  She had shown how very talented she was when running at Gulfstream this winter and then when she easily dominated the Grade 1 Mother Goose, earning a 102 Beyer in April she looked like a top contender for 3-year-old filly of the year.  But she came down with an illness and missed the entire summer of racing.  So today she was coming off a five month break and going two turns at a new track.  Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott would be unlikely, I thought, to send her to a $1 million Grade 1 if she weren't razor sharp.  The fact that Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith - who seems to be a "gun for hire" flying all over the country every weekend to get just the best mounts - took the reins today AND that Close Hatches had fired a best of 75 bullet work for today both said she was on top of her game.  Sweet Lulu had won the Grade 1 Test on Travers Day (when I was there) with a gutsy wire-to-wire win going seven furlongs to extend her unbeaten streak.  Today she stretched out to 8 1/2 furlongs and would try to steal it.  I thought she was WAY overmatched by Close Hatches.  Smith had her tracking Lulu to the top of the lane and then blew by to win convincingly!  Best of all she was a "huge" 8/5 favorite when she should have been no better than 2/5.  My $30 win ticket was good for nearly $80! 

 

Less than ten minutes later it was time for my "BEST" at Belmont.  Their feature today was the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Handicap.  I had won with Dance to Bristol when she won her 6th in a row in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga, and then she'd won a nose photo over Book Review in the Grade 1 Ballerina when I was at Saratoga for her 7th in a row.  But today I thought those two gut-wrenching wins would take their toll on her.  I was looking for an alternative and there she was.  Last spring Cluster of Stars had run her record to 4-for-4 when she won the Grade 2 Ladies' Distaff at Aqueduct.  She'd been off since then, but not only did her works look good enough to get her fit for today, but she appeared to be the ONLY FRONT RUNNER in the field, and she was on the rail (despite wearing saddle cloth #2 because of an entry).  Add in that top NY jockey Javier Castellano was on board today and I thought she had a great chance to steal it.  I made my "Prime Time - $20" investment an looked at the board.....she was better than 3/1!  Right to the front and in hand through easy enough fractions.  But halfway through the turn Dance to Bristol glided up effortlessly.  I felt queasy when her regular rider was looking all around for competition as he came to near even turns with Cluster of Stars.  I thought, this isn't good.  But, she was about six off the rail and Castellano was hugging the fence.  I had the thought that if she could give a little spurt turning for home that this with the saving of ground would make us difficult to run down.  Just as I thought it, it happened.  As they straightened for home Cluster of Stars was quickly back in front by four AND UNDER A HAND RIDE.  You could tell that Dance to Bristol's rider now saw the danger......he was NOT going to inhale the front runner; he'd lost the momentum and he was in trouble.  He asked Dance for Bristol to run, but that was when Castellano gave Cluster of Stars her cue.  She accelerated away and won gong away in what track announcer, Hall of Famer Tom Durkin called a "dazzling display" to score.  The prices were posted at $8.20 for a $2 bet and I went to the window to cash my $82.00 ticket!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  I am having a VERY GOOD day indeed - my 16th winner! 

 

Before I cashed my tickets on these two "BEST BETS" I recorded my videos (the Close Hatches comments did not record, sigh....) and posed with my two winning tickets!

 

I still had another "Best Bet" to go, at Arlington!  Prior to that I had my another stakes play at Laurel,  In the Laurel Turf Cup I liked Lake Drop.  He went off at 7/2 but was a non-threatening 7th.  Then it was the Arlington race, the Illinois Owners' Stakes.  It was a one mile event on the turf.  There were several speed types so I was looking for a runner from off the pace.  The Pizza Man grabbed my attention.  Not only was he a strong finishing style runner, but he'd already won 7-of-11 turf starts and qualified as a "Horse-for-the-Course" with a local record of 7/4-1-1.  The crowd recognized his chances and he left the gate as the even money choice.  In a near identical trip as He's Dann Good's race earlier, the Pizza Man saved all the ground through the far turn and then could not find a way off the rail.  A seam looked to be opening just outside the front runner, but when he went for it, it quickly closed and he had to check slightly.  Then the rail opened and the rider dove inside.  It was inside the 16th pole, was there time?  As John G. Dooley called it, in his best dramatic stretch call voice, it was "a driving finish!" and the Pizza Man was up JUST in time!  As I had written in my analys, in such a clever way, the Pizza Man had "delivered!"

 

But first it was time for the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby.  Like last year where the Cotillion was my "BEST" and I had a minimum bet on the Derby, I had the same feelings.  Like last year I did NOT like the Travers winner (or runner-up who was also in the field) so I settled on California invader Fury Kapori.  I was encouraged that he was the upset pick of several national handicappers AND was still 6/1 at post time.  He stalked the leaders to the stretch, but came up empty as the Travers winner validated that big win by scoring with a rail-skimming ride.  When I cashed my Pizza Man ticket the gal I'd been betting with, whom I seem to frequently have conversations with, remarked, "You're cashing a LOT of tickets today!"  I told her I usually cash at a much higher rate in the fall, but even for the fall this was a most unusual day with SIXTEEN wins!  I made my last two bets and went to watch the final two races.  At Belmont in their finale I liked Powerful Instinct on the turf in an entry level allowance in spite of his woeful record of 1-for-21.....yikes!  Why would I pick him?  Because today he was making his first start for top trainer Chad Brown and Javier Castellano (32% jockey-trainer team) had taken the mount.  The crowd wasn't convinced and let him go at 3/1.  He walked with it, and I cashed for over $20 again!  My 17th score!  By the time I got to the Laurel monitor my pick in the DeFrancis Dash was nowhere to be found.....Sage Valley was 7th at 7/5.  I went back to cash my ticket and the gal said, "What's wrong?"  I smiled, shook my head and said, "Unbelievable, I won AGAIN!"  We both chuckled and I took my cash.  As I walked out I counted the money in my bank roll - over $475.00!  And a few hours earlier I'd been wondering if I had enough money!  LOL!  When I got home and looked over my results, even I was amazed.  But one last surprise was in store - I'd said on my video recap, after counting up my numbers that I won sixteen races and had a profit of over $143.  But I'd mis-counted....I had SEVENTEEN wins and a final profit total of $150.75!  And then I realized, I had SO MANY winners, I would need to make TWO highlight videos!  It was TRULY a great day!  Enjoy the videos :)